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Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

5 Dec

All Vinay, Wes, & Stefan need to say is, "our article, had it been heeded, would have led to even more spread of COVID, threatening the lives of many more, and obviously now would have resulted in more children dying. It's clear now that emergency authorization was appropriate."

Instead, its a bit embarrassing to say, but they seem more interested in redefining their message (Stefan embarrassingly now claiming all they wanted was for ACIP to meet...) than admitting that there can be a downside to being too cautious during an emergency situation.

Of course, the title gives away the message which is... and I'm not kidding, "We should wait longer for more data to come in before making this decision."

Read 8 tweets

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

3 Dec

@CDCgov

Full Subgroup Analysis, US Suicides 2020
-=-=-= LONG = THREAD =-=-==-

2020's effect on suicide can now be analysed thanks to @CDCgov at the yearly level. Very shortly I'll be able to look monthly as well.

This is the whole US population, but we can now do subgroups. /1

The big headline: Children 10-14 did NOT have a significant increase in suicides. It was well within expected rate variability. Error bars shown.

Because of small #'s, the rate changes can be drastic.

The 2020 increase was less than '00, '04, '07, '09, '13, '14, '17 and '18 /2

In other words, no evidence that the "lockdown" phase of the pandemic caused more child suicides, and no evidence that 2020 was associated with a significant increase in child suicides. /3

Read 16 tweets

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

3 Dec

Suicidology during the Pandemic (US)
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=
(and a quick lesson in visualization)

Suicide rates decreased significantly when the pandemic started, and remained lower than 2019 for the remainder of the year. This is the monthly breakdown.

#COVID19 /1

This is the best way to visualize yearly changes, and media types/communication types, please take note. This graph contains all of the necessary information to put a yearly change into context.

This graph is my invention, called the "GETH"

Why is it the best, you ask? /2

FIRST: it standardizes each month and year to "per 100,000 per year". Populations change over time and months have 28-31 days. This variation matters and without controlling, introduces error. /3

Read 11 tweets

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

30 Nov

https://twitter.com/JasoKane/status/1465436333481074701

This is one of the true issues of COVID when it comes to preventing transmission/reducing spread, and protecting children. Eggheads & doofuses will focus on how "rare" it is for kids to die (tho its a leading cause of death in kids), but so many children have suffered d/t COVID.

https://twitter.com/JasoKane/status/1465436333481074701

Doofus: "0.00x% of kids die" - there are other issues with COVID spreading through a community that severely harm children

Egghead: "masks stop kids from reading facial expressions, and being out of school could cause problems" - how about losing a parent to preventable disease

Every human who can be vaccinated should be vaccinated, and we should be doing everything we can to prevent the preventable deaths and illnesses that occur due to COVID. This has *always* been the answer to "how can we help our kids the most?"

Read 5 tweets

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

20 Nov

A Very Grim Milestone:
As of today, 1:1500 people **worldwide** have died due to COVID-19.

This ranks COVID-19 between #4-6 in cause of death in the world, over the past 22 months.

/1

Of course, the world is a big place.

COVID stats:
=-=-=-=-=-=-=
Peru: 1 in 167 dead
Brazil: 1 in 350 dead
USA: 1 in 418 dead
UK: 1 in 475 dead
Sweden: 1 in 675 dead
Germany: 1 in 846 dead
Canada: 1 in 1,295 dead
Australia: 1 in 13,369 dead
New Zealand: 1 in 128,205 dead

/2

Remember, this isn't infection mortality (the chance of dying if you get COVID), this is POPULATION mortality. 0.067% of the population doesn't sound like a lot, but its far higher than suicide worldwide (#10 cause of death, 0.019% Population Fatality Rate in 22 months).

/3

Read 5 tweets

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

3 Nov

@CDCgov

Suicidology update:
-------=======-------

Suicide rates in 2020 in the US are now available via @CDCgov BY AGE.

No significant change in youth groups, decreased in older ages past expected levels.

/1

By racial categories, for men there was variation but the trend of "white and Asian down, Black, Hispanic, and Indigenous" was present. Due to size of the groups the Indigenous men increase is within variance.

/2

In female suicides all groups saw a decrease, but only white women had a drop outside variance.

Women fared better than men for suicide in absolute terms (men outnumber women 4:1 this year), but also relatively (women down 8.3%, men down (2.2%)

/3

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