SAGE paper just released from yesterday:

“preliminary modelling suggests that without any changes to measures in place, the number of hospitalisations from Omicron may reach 1,000 per day or higher in England by the end of the year (and still be increasing at that point)."
SAGE: “With the speed of growth seen, decision makers will need to consider response measures urgently to reduce transmission if the aim is to reduce the likelihood of unsustainable pressure on the NHS."
From the Commons:

Sajid Javid says there are 568 Omicron confirmed cases in the country.

But only a small % sequenced so real number of infections of this variant likely to be 20 times higher, so around 10,000.

HT @breeallegretti

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More from @SamCoatesSky

30 Nov
Speaking at a vaccine clinic in North London, Boris Johnson told TV pool:
- need to make “another great surge” on vaccinations and “we will throw everything at it”
- “we’ve no doubt at all the NHS, all the volunteers, the army can rise to that challenge”
Boris Johnson /2
- cancel holidays? Nativities? “we are not changing the guidance on how you should live your life except in a couple of ways” - masks and checks on travellers
Boris Johnson /3
- so why did Jenny Harries talk today about avoiding unnecessary socialising? “It’s always sensible to be careful that’s what Jenny is saying … people should continue to get fresh air and wash hands but we’re not going to change the overall guidance”
Read 4 tweets
8 Nov
Important intervention from Tory MP and standards committee member Alberto Costa

He saying that none of the 14 members - 7 MPs and 7 lay people - have legal qualifications and there’s a conflict of interest involving commissioner

He’s blowing up the existing system…
Committee member Alberto Costa saying he tried and fail to raise the failings of the Standards system from the inside but never succeeded
Standards committee and Tory MP Alberto Costa says there needs to be “more high court judges” into the process
Read 4 tweets
8 Nov
How do you “ban second jobs” for MPs when being a minister is a “second job” on top of being an MP.

So any crackdown would be about what forms of extracurricular work permitted

Is anything funded by government/state OK? Anything above a certain £? Certain industries? Books?
You are quickly into very tricky areas - once you’re arguing about definitions of professions and activities, the chances of reform actually happening diminish quickly
The danger is that you get into MPs trying to define what “good” outside jobs are (part time helping as an NHS first responder) and “bad” outside jobs (receiving money from a PR agency)

But people’s view of what is morally acceptable differs and shifts over time
Read 11 tweets
28 Oct
EXC: Key government committee discuss "Article 16 readiness" in a sign big clash with the EU getting closer

1/
The committee - which was called XO when it did Brexit Preparedness - and now known as GB(O) has Article 16 readiness on the agenda

FULL STORY
news.sky.com/story/brexit-u…
2/ Sky News has also learnt cabinet ministers are discussing mid-November as a likely moment for triggering Article 16.

Number 10 says a negotiated outcome is their preference and point out Article 16 process has its limitations
3/ Lord Frost has been holding meetings with Tory MPs to minimise opposition if A16 is triggered. "The message was: trust us" said one MP present. "They did Brexit, they know what they're doing" is the message.
Read 5 tweets
20 Oct
There’s a plan afoot amongst some Labour MPs to exclude Jeremy Corbyn permanently from the Parliamentary Labour Party.

They want to change Labour standing orders to allow MPs to decide Corbyn’s future. Then vote him out. This would spare Starmer from having to ‘own’ any decision
Labour MPs involved in this plan believe the changes made at conference - to make it harder to deselect sitting MPs - embolden then to make this change

But whips worry about the numbers - while others worry about the optics of another Labour internal row taking centre stage
Also - how ‘hands off’ is the plan to get rid of Corbyn. Of course they would deny involvement

But Team Starmer would logically want the Corbyn issue resolved well before a general election - they don’t want a clash over Corbyn’s selection close to a campaign
Read 4 tweets
17 Oct
Sir David Amess had a stalker during the 2017 general election campaign.

Why his story reveals the vital role police play in securing MPs’ safety

My analysis for @SkyNews @ 10
Sir David Amess revealed the story of the stalker in the Commons chamber in 2019. Here’s what he said Image
There have been so many stories of MPs upset with the police for failing to take their stories of threats and harassment seriously

They go into more detail with us off the record, since they don’t want to fuel the flames or get into a public row with police

Here’s one: Image
Read 5 tweets

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