Thread by @kylamb8

Yes, it's technically true that most cases are "mild" and have been even with Delta. But to say that is how Delta was being initially reported by people on the ground is an attempt to revise history. That's not how Delta was viewed in the early reports out of India.

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Delta, the B.1.617.2 variant, was discovered in December 2020, although not much was really known about it or was it seen spreading until February 2021.

Immediately, severe illness was being seen in Maharashtra where pneumonia was seen in early stages.

indiatoday.in/coronavirus-ou…

Over the first several weeks, although death rates did not necessarily increase, there were most certainly deaths and the rates did not decrease either. By April, India was experiencing a second wave that doctors were describing as having higher viral loads and rate of symptoms.

On April 16, doctors were noting how the lungs were being attacked frequently, at least anecdotally. See an excerpt from Daily Rounds

Fortunately, Delta has not had a higher fatality rate and may be lower.

But the early observations of Delta attacking the lungs has been different in how Omicron is being observed thus far. Namely, it's not. That's key as pneumonia is the primary manner of death in COVID-19.

Surveillance published in the Tshwane District of South Africa last week observed that 70% of hospitalizations were not oxygen dependent, and merely incidental *with* COVID. They also observed much less pneumonia and severe illness.

So far, far fewer are being seen in the ICU or on ventilators with difficulty breathing than at the same point during the Delta wave.

https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1468087528087502854?s=20

"No one has been even close to being seriously ill," said one Cape Town practitioner to Bloomberg on Dec. 3.

"Most people are presenting with coughs and upper respiratory tract infections," said another doctor.

In the ECDC update today, they note over 1,400 global confirmed cases of Omicron. Thus far, not a single death has been recorded.

https://twitter.com/kylamb8/status/1468660418939961353?s=20

Even panic promoter Saint Fauci admits already Omicron is "almost certainly" not worse than Delta (read: probably significantly less so in Fauci speak).

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1468298074808324096?s=20

Here are more data and reports from the ground that I posted this past weekend.

https://twitter.com/kylamb8/status/1467645340845289478?s=20

Again, we're seeing much less severe illness so far, and specifically very little pneumonia or impact on the lungs. This is huge. In 407,00+ of the 788,000+ COVID-associated deaths, Pneumonia was recorded on the death certificate.

data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provision…

If we continue to see a virus transmit without the same impact on the lungs and continue to be largely an upper respiratory event, deaths will remain low and this will be more along the lines of a bad cold. If these data hold up, this could be a great development.

/End