🧵President Biden’s statement yesterday about his video meeting with #Putin👇 seemed like a departure from the past weeks of Alliance-focused diplomacy and created very real concerns on #NATO eastern flank. There is number of questions that should be clarified by the U.S. admin:
President Biden spoke of a meeting on Friday that would “discuss the future of Russia’s concerns relative to NATO writ large and whether or not we can work out any accommodations”. • What accommodations could be worked out with Russia that threatens Ukraine with armed invasion?
• Are there Russia’s “concerns relative to #NATO” that the U.S. finds legitimate?
• Which “major NATO Allies” will be invited to the meeting with Russia? President spoke of “at least four” - will any of the major eastern flank states be invited? These nations are not only stakeholders, but also security providers on NATO’s borders.
• What is the role of NATO in these talks with Russia? If the conversation will be about “Russia’s concerns relative to NATO writ large”, as President Biden said, shouldn’t the Alliance be involved as a whole?
President Biden spoke about clear message to Putin of severe consequences and the need to reinforce eastern Allies. This was consistent with U.S. diplomacy over past weeks. But unfortunately stood in contrast to his later words of accommodations and Russia’s concerns about #NATO.
President Biden’s full statement can be seen here 📺
🧵Few observations from #Riga after talking with several senior officials from across the Alliance at the #NATO#ForMin meeting:
• the scale of Russian military build up is unprecedented - this is NOT a repeat of the spring built up. The talk of war in Ukraine is in the air.
• Russia’s ultimate intentions are not clear - but the scale and capabilities that are being prepared would allow it to strike Ukraine from three directions, perhaps including from the north through Belarus.
• The broader strategic community, including think tanks, for the moment deeply underestimates the severity of the situation due to classification of the specific information presented to the Allies.