Brexit - Why? And What Next? An Empire On The Brink
The puffed-up nonentities - “Spartans”, “Bad Boys”, those posing as tough negotiators & defenders of sovereignty - are corks bobbing on a geopolitical ocean. Only able to wreck.
Serious people could help save the UK.
A 🧵/1.
The puffed-up nonentities - “Spartans”, “Bad Boys”, those posing as tough negotiators & defenders of sovereignty - are corks bobbing on a geopolitical ocean. Only able to wreck.
Serious people could help save the UK.
A 🧵/1.
The EU & NATO are American projects, central to the order the US has designed, built & led for 75 years.
The modern UK has flourished within, & strongly contributed to, both. And to the other main global security & economic structures of the US order.
As has the EU. /2.
The modern UK has flourished within, & strongly contributed to, both. And to the other main global security & economic structures of the US order.
As has the EU. /2.
The US has always been by far the single, leading, dominant force.
Brexit, & the wider turbulence within the EU, are late warning signs of a crisis of American power, one which has been a long time coming.
They are not the only ones. /3.
Brexit, & the wider turbulence within the EU, are late warning signs of a crisis of American power, one which has been a long time coming.
They are not the only ones. /3.
The election & farcical, malign incompetence of Donald Trump, with its troubling aftermath, has been the most obvious & dangerous.
The manner & scale of assertion of power by the Chinese Communist Party on a wide international stage is another, & is similarly disturbing. /4.
The manner & scale of assertion of power by the Chinese Communist Party on a wide international stage is another, & is similarly disturbing. /4.
So are the Putin regime’s increasingly reckless efforts at disruption of the American-led global system.
American power results from technological, economic & military leadership. /5.
American power results from technological, economic & military leadership. /5.
Allied to an effective system of concerting political power, able to project dominance wherever, whenever, & to the extent, required. /6.
Dominance in exploitation of energy resources, military & advanced technologies, financial systems & markets, & in economic output & assets, has been translated into the long-term American leadership of the single global power structure in which we have all lived since 1945. /7.
This has been & remains the vital factor ordering our world. Underpinned by sophisticated & determined US-led political action. /8.
From the vantage point of the beginning of the 20th century rather than the 21st, this account of global power & the elements which drive it, would describe well the British Empire. /9.
Although British dominance had by then been established for a rather longer period - a century or so.
The warning of a looming, rapidly developing crisis would have been as urgent & appropriate in 1901 as in 2021. /10.
The warning of a looming, rapidly developing crisis would have been as urgent & appropriate in 1901 as in 2021. /10.
In both cases, the spread of technologies around the globe, & the consequent economic & military development of other countries - such as Germany & the USA, in relation to the British Empire during the late 19th & early 20th centuries; … /11.
… or China, in respect of the USA during the late 20th & early 21st - eroded the dominant power’s commanding lead over all others, & ability to impose its will. /12.
In the British Empire’s case - in the absence of a system of effective alliances or broader international cooperation able to provide an alternative, reliable order - an unavoidably unpredictable & ultimately chaotic process ensued. Resulting in the First World War. /13.
And in the two unsettled, crisis-ridden decades which followed. And the Second World War.
We don’t yet know what will emerge from the current American struggle to live up to its world role, on which everyone else, as well as the US itself, relies. /14.
We don’t yet know what will emerge from the current American struggle to live up to its world role, on which everyone else, as well as the US itself, relies. /14.
We don’t know whether, unlike in the 1890s & 1900s, the opportunity will be taken in the 2020s for a course correction which could save us from a repeat of the three decades’ chaos & destruction, 1914-45.
In a nuclear armed world, experiencing an existential climate crisis. /15.
In a nuclear armed world, experiencing an existential climate crisis. /15.
Brexit is what happens when, under these problematic circumstances, a country - in this case, medium sized, & unable to make the geopolitical weather or impose its will on others – loses its moorings. /16.
In part, this is caused by highly regrettable ignorance & delusion among its political leaders & electorate, exploited by aggressive opportunists, domestic & foreign. /17.
In part by a casting around for new survival strategies, as the (understandable) concern grows that the old order is showing signs of serious erosion & might no longer be reliable. /18.
And in part by the absence of decisive implementation of discipline by the dominant global power, which either chooses not - or simply fails - to act as it should. /19.
This last point is the most important.
Without in any sense excusing the stupidities, carelessness, & venality of Brexit’s leaders, the UK’s bizarre political convulsion is at root a failure of US statecraft & a troubling symbol of the absence of effective American power. /20.
Without in any sense excusing the stupidities, carelessness, & venality of Brexit’s leaders, the UK’s bizarre political convulsion is at root a failure of US statecraft & a troubling symbol of the absence of effective American power. /20.
In 1956, infamously, the UK secretly conspired with France & Israel to assert authority - in what became known as the Suez Crisis - against the American interest (as interpreted by the US administration of the day). /21.
Britain was decisively & rapidly put back in its box by the US.
On countless occasions since, mostly with little fanfare, American power has been exercised to prevent unhelpful divergence by allies.
And, of course, to contain disruptors and adversaries. /22.
On countless occasions since, mostly with little fanfare, American power has been exercised to prevent unhelpful divergence by allies.
And, of course, to contain disruptors and adversaries. /22.
If it had only been the derailment of the UK being permitted by US neglect, it would be a highly troubling but manageable aberration.
But, of course, as already indicated, Brexit is far from the only dangerous attack on our collective interests. /23.
But, of course, as already indicated, Brexit is far from the only dangerous attack on our collective interests. /23.
Attacks permitted, or even encouraged, by the Trump administration.
The US’s own partial derailment following the 2016 presidential election is, of course, another. /24.
The US’s own partial derailment following the 2016 presidential election is, of course, another. /24.
The appalling Syrian civil war, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the disgraceful political developments in EU countries such as Hungary & Poland, the Chinese Communist Party’s destabilisation of the South China Sea area, … /25.
… & numerous other examples, all result directly from failure of American statecraft & power projection. /26.
As with the British Empire - where the global spread of technology & the associated development of economic & military power elsewhere saw its share of global output drop from around a half to a fifth, & military capability shift from unbeatable to challengeable - the US is…/27.
… experiencing a similar shift, moving dangerously close to being unable to guarantee the essential foundations of the global economic & security order.
The US’s big advantage is its close allies, notably in North America, Europe & the Asia-Pacific region. /28.
The US’s big advantage is its close allies, notably in North America, Europe & the Asia-Pacific region. /28.
Together, they still represent well over half the global economy, & overwhelming military capability.
Provided, that is, these US-led alliances become politically, economically, & militarily tighter. More efficient & effective. And more assertive. /29.
Provided, that is, these US-led alliances become politically, economically, & militarily tighter. More efficient & effective. And more assertive. /29.
And with the USA at their core. Leading.
From this global, & American leadership, perspective, Brexit could be viewed as an awkward but insignificant detail. /30.
From this global, & American leadership, perspective, Brexit could be viewed as an awkward but insignificant detail. /30.
Why not just let the UK suffer its fate?
Why not, indeed.
That is a possible approach for a US freed of the nihilist, malevolent clown-fest of the Trump administration, & determined to prevent the disastrous descent into 1914-45 style chaos which threatens us all. /31.
Why not, indeed.
That is a possible approach for a US freed of the nihilist, malevolent clown-fest of the Trump administration, & determined to prevent the disastrous descent into 1914-45 style chaos which threatens us all. /31.
However, the UK probably has sufficient strategic value to need to be put back on the rails, with or without the cooperation of the fantasists who have taken it to the brink of national disintegration, economic wreckage & irrecoverable humiliation. /32.
Europe as a whole, very far from being just a detail, is fundamental to success. /33.
And fixing US-European relations - underway with President Biden in the White House, but still on a bumpy path - will be substantially easier & more effective if Brexit is, de facto if not necessarily de jure, rapidly reversed. /34.
In short, therefore: no doubt the UK could have avoided Brexit, with wiser leaders; but, the space for dangerous buffoons to take over the reins of power in the UK & elsewhere, is created by the absence of decisive, effective American leadership. /35.
That leadership has to be restored.
Something which can only happen through a joint, courageous, sustained effort by the US & its most important allies.
In Europe, Chancellor Scholz & President Macron are the decisive leaders.
The UK has written itself out. For now. /36.
Something which can only happen through a joint, courageous, sustained effort by the US & its most important allies.
In Europe, Chancellor Scholz & President Macron are the decisive leaders.
The UK has written itself out. For now. /36.
If such US leadership returns, Brexit - a destructive, repellent nonsense, wrapped in a self-defeating cloak of dogmatic ignorance - will be dealt with: either reversed or rendered irrelevant.
If it isn’t, Brexit will be the least of anyone’s problems.
Even the UK’s. /37. End
If it isn’t, Brexit will be the least of anyone’s problems.
Even the UK’s. /37. End
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