Thread by @CozomoMedici

🍷On Valuing High-end NFTs

1/ Well, someone *may* have stole a cryptopunk ape today.

But in the next few days or weeks, we will discover the REAL market value of a high-end punk

I'm as bullish on NFTs as ANYONE.

But at the same time...

2/ I do feel some collectors are delusional as to what their NFTs are worth.

At the end of the day, an NFT is only valued in 3 ways:

1. Value to you
2. Utility
3. What someone else is willing to pay

3/ If # 1 is strong for you, #'s 2 & 3 don't matter.

But I feel people are using their own strong feelings about personal value and utility... to be unrealistic about what someone else might pay for that same value and utility.

4/ Let's use @XCOPYART 's Some Asshole as an example.

Value to me - I LOVE the work, and the history behind it. 10/10.

Utility - I'm building a museum-worthy XCOPY collection, so if Right Click is a 10/10, Some Asshole is a 9.5 here.

5/ What someone else is willing to pay:

Well, if someone offered me 3500e for Some Asshole right now, I'd say no.

6/ If someone offered me 4500e, I'm still likely a no. But I'd give it a good think.

10,000e?

Let's make a deal.

7/ So, does that mean Some Asshole is worth 10,000e, because I'd say yes to that?

Or somewhere slightly less, because 8,000 or whatever still might make me think.

Nope.

8/ Because right now, there is no one I know of, or can think of, who would pay me 10,000e, 8,000, or 3,500e.

It doesn't matter how much I love it, how important it is, or how much the community loves it.

If there is no buyer, there is no sale.

9/ Will there will be a buyer at these prices, some day soon?

I believe in every fiber of my being, that XCOPY prices will facemelt upwards, and surprise everyone.

But who knows?

10/ So what is Some Asshole really worth now?

The truth is, no one has a clue.

11/ No one knows if those who can afford such a purchase, have the liquidity.

No one knows if they could get the ETH together at showtime.

And no one knows that if when it came down to it, they might decide to sweep the punks floor instead.

12/ So the fact that I wouldn't sell it for less than 8,000-10,000e, means honestly nothing.

13/ A few weeks ago, someone I know went around and made cryptopunk ape holders a serious offer of 4,200e for their apes.

All said no. That their apes were worth at LEAST 6,000e.

So does that mean at that moment, an ape was actually worth 6,000e?

14/ Well, as far as I know, no one was going around offering 6,000e.

So I would say that in that moment, an ape was worth 4,200e. Whether a sale happened, or not.

15/ And today, no matter what anyone says, and despite my dismay as a high-end punk holder...

A cryptopunk ape was worth 2,500e.

16/ ETH vs USD

I recently asked 20 of the biggest NFT collectors if they thought of their NFTs in ETH prices, or USD.

Most answered ETH.

But honestly, I feel that is B.S.

17/ If you've read my thread below on how I first started in NFTs, you know I began by searching for an ape...

https://twitter.com/CozomoMedici/status/1433587285035913217?s=20

18/ And I was offering bids around 1,300e.

When the floor ape sold for 1,600e, I regretted not buying it.

So that should mean I'm still an ape buyer at 1,600e, right?

19/ Well, you didn't see me bidding 1,600e today.

Because even though I was once a buyer at 1,600e... back then, that was $3.7m

I'm still an ape buyer at $3.7m.

But not at today's 1600e price, of $6.7m

20/ And my fren, if can you look at this image, and you only see the not-too-far apart ETH price... and NOT the $10m and $5m in USD...

21/ Then you my fren, are a bigger better degen than I.

However, I am one of maybe 5-10 serious buyer of high-end NFTs.

That makes me 10-20% of the market.

And I still price primarily in USD.

22/ Cryptopunk ape 4156 is now re-listed at 4156e, or $17,455,200 USD.

That is a meme price, so my guess is the new holder is open to offers.

Or, it could be market-bought at 4156 ETH.

23/ But no matter what happens, and no matter what anyone says,

A cryptopunk ape today was worth $10,500,000.

Or 2,500 ETH.

24/ And even after it sells again, we won't know any better what a cryptopunk ape is worth.

Until we know what the next buyer is willing to pay :)