Thread by @theSNP

First Minister @NicolaSturgeon: "Thanks for joining us. As you can see I’m joined by the Chief Medical Officer and the National Clinical Director."

NS: "Throughout the pandemic - particularly at key stages - I’ve tried to be open and upfront with you about the challenges and uncertainties confronting us, so that you can better understand - if not always agree with - the difficult judgments and decisions we have had to make."

NS: "This is another moment when such frankness is really important.

So the purpose of today’s update is to level with you on what we know about spread in Scotland of the new Omicrom variant - and also our estimate of what we are likely to face in the days and weeks to come."

NS: "The fact is we face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new Omicron variant."

NS: "To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissability of this new variant, we may be facing - indeed we may be starting to experience - a potential tsunami of infections."

NS: "We're not alone in that - everything I am about to share with you about the situation in Scotland is, I believe, broadly reflected in the data for the rest to the UK too.

But, we have just published an evidence paper which provides more detail about Omicron in Scotland."

NS: "You can find that evidence paper online, on the Scottish Government website or Twitter feed.

I'm going to come back to that in more detail, and tell you what we do know about, and what we expect from Omicron."

NS: "First, though, as I usually do, I'm going to summarise today’s statistics.

5,018 positive cases were reported yesterday – 9.3% of all tests carried out."

NS: "Now, this is one day’s figures - but it is a sharp rise on the average of around 2,800 per day we have been reporting recently, and underlines our fear that a new wave may indeed be starting.

573 people are in hospital with Covid – 5 fewer than yesterday."

NS: "And 40 people are in intensive care, which is 1 more than yesterday.

I would remind you there is always a time lag between rising cases and rising numbers of people in hospital and intensive care."

NS: "Sadly, a further 19 deaths have been reported in the past 24 hours, which takes the total number of deaths registered under the daily definition to 9,707."

NS: "I want again to send my condolences to everyone who has lost a loved one."

NS: "I am pleased to report, though - and this is important and will become increasingly important - that the vaccination programme continues apace."

NS: "4,358,725 people have now had a first dose, 3,967,477 have had two doses, and 2,000,915 have had a booster or third dose.

On first, second, third and booster doses, Scotland is still the most vaccinated part of the UK."

NS: "I want to again record my thanks to everyone involved in organising and delivering this vaccination programme. Without a doubt, the biggest peacetime exercise that has ever been undertaken in Scotland."

NS: "In relation to the Omicron variant specifically, as of 5pm yesterday, there were 110 confirmed cases in Scotland."

NS: "Ten days ago we reported a total of just 9 cases.

Now, these are confirmed cases – confirmed, that is, by genomic sequencing."

NS: "There are two reasons why confirmed cases represent just the tip of the iceberg, and shouldn't really be looked at as the best indicator of the true prevalence of the variant in Scotland right now."

NS: "Firstly, because genomic sequencing takes some time, there is a time lag in these figures. And secondly, while we do a lot of genomic sequencing, not all tests are or can be analysed in this way."

NS: "A better indicator of whether a case is Omicron or not, is whether the PCR test shows a specific genetic characteristic known as the S gene drop out.

Around 95% of all tests in Scotland are analysed in a way that allows us to know this."

NS: "And almost all tests that show the S gene drop out will be Omicron.

So these figures help to show the true scale of the variant at this stage.

And what they show is that Omicron is rising exponentially."

NS: "Indeed, what we are seeing in the data just now is perhaps the fastest exponential growth that we’ve seen in the pandemic so far."

NS: "In the final week of November, if we look at all of the Covid cases recorded in Scotland, there were no days when the proportion of cases with S Gene drop out was higher than 1%.

However, by last Sunday, 5th December, the proportion had risen to 2%."

NS: "On Tuesday, it was just over 4%. On Wednesday it was almost 7%, and today, it is 15.5%."

NS: "You might think these are relatively low percentages, but consider that trend. This is doubling on a very rapid basis."

NS: "Indeed, our estimate at this stage is that the doubling time for Omicron cases is between 2 and 3 days. It may be closer to 2 days than 3 days."

NS: "If that continues, and we have no reason at this stage to expect it won’t, Omicron is going to quickly overtake Delta as the dominant strain in Scotland."

NS: "Indeed, we can now say with some confidence that we expect it to overtake Delta within days, not weeks - we estimate this will be as early as the beginning of next week."

NS: "You might be asking, why does that matter? Because Omicron has a much higher R number - a higher transmissibility - than the Delta variant, which for some time now has been the dominant variant in Scotland and much of the world."

NS: "So the R number in Scotland in recent weeks has been hovering around 1. We like it to be below 1 but hovering around 1 is not the worst place for it to be - and we've been seeing a decline in cases in Scotland in recent weeks."

NS: "However, the R number associated with Omicron is likely to be well over 2 - possibly closer to 3."

NS: "And as and when Omicron that happens, the R number associated with Omicron will increasingly become the R number for Scotland as a whole.

As a result, our estimate is that the R number overall is likely to rise above 2."

NS: "All of these estimates are based on the limited evidence already available here in Scotland, but also other data available from South Africa and elsewhere.

What it all means is that in our judgement, it is no longer a question of if we are facing a surge in cases."

NS: "We now believe that to be virtually certain.

Our health protection teams are working really hard through contact tracing, testing and isolation to slow the spread of Omicron cases and I want to thank them for the excellent work they are doing."

NS: "But the nature of transmission means we expect to see a rapid rise in cases in the days ahead.

This is driven by the transmissibility of this variant. Figures we are seeing here in Scotland are consistent with data from around the world."

NS: "They provide a considerable degree of certainty that Omicron is significantly more transmissible than the Delta variant.

The best expert advice also tells us that Omicron is more capable of re-infecting people who have had the virus previously."

NS: "And – based on preliminary laboratory trials – the best evidence suggests it can evade to some extent the immunity conferred by vaccinations."

NS: "Now, I want to triple underline this point.

That does not mean vaccines will not significantly help us. Being less effective is not the same - nowhere near the same - as vaccines being ineffective."

NS: "And booster doses, in particular, will help retain a higher level of vaccine efficiency.

So getting your vaccines remains absolutely crucial.

The thing we don’t yet know is whether Omicron causes more or less serious illness than the Delta variant."

NS: "However, there is an absolutely crucial point that we all need to understand - and it's one of the most important I need to set out today.

Because it is a matter of basic and quite brutal arithmetic."

NS: "Even if the variant is generally a little less severe for most people - and let me stress we still don’t know that to be the case - but even if it is, for some people it will still cause serious illness, hospitalisation, and, tragically, some people will die."

NS: "But the overall impact point is, even if a smaller percentage of people overall than is the case for Delta require treatment, a smaller percentage of a bigger number will still result in a massive number of cases who might need hospital care."

NS: "And given the volume of people who could be infected by Omicron because of its greater transmissibility, even if most are mild, the number of cases of serious illness amongst those infections will put massive strain on the ability of the NHS to cope."

NS: "Also, the numbers of people becoming infected even mildly - and having to isolate - will put a significant strain on the economy and critical services.

We are starting to see this already."

NS: "Today, there are 60 ScotRail cancellations today due to staff shortages mainly due to Covid.

And as you may have seen in the media already, many staff at an A&E unit in Lanarkshire are having to isolate - through no fault of theirs - after attending a social event."

NS: "All of this means that Omicron is an immensely concerning development, even if it does prove to be slightly less severe than Delta.

It's concerning for Scotland, for the UK, and indeed, for the world."

NS: "I wanted to set this out today not to try to scare people, but to provide the context for the difficult decisions that all governments might have to take in days to come - and to level with you to share the rationale for those decisions."

NS: "We in the Scottish Government will be considering our next steps very carefully - but also mindful of the need to act quickly.

We will be discussing matters on a 4 nations basis too."

NS: "I am very mindful that anything we do - including some of what I say today - has an economic and financial impact for businesses and UK funding arrangements means we have no choice but to look to the Treasury to act."

NS: "This is a point I will be raising again with the UK Government in a Cobra meeting this afternoon.

It is worth noting though - as I did a moment ago - that not acting also has a financial and economic impact as more people get infected and have to be away from work."

NS: "But the impact of not acting will be less managed and therefore potentially more damaging.

I will keep you and Parliament fully updated in days ahead.

But there are two points I want to make today.

The first is in response to advice I received last night."

NS: "Given that Omicron is now becoming dominant, our response to it has to become more general. It will quickly be the case that most people who have Covid have the Omicron variant.

And we must do all we can to break transmission chains."

NS: "Therefore, from tomorrow, our advice will be that all household contacts of any confirmed Covid case should isolate for 10 days, regardless of vaccination status, and even if they initially get a negative PCR test."

NS: "I know this is not easy - and we will keep it under review.

We will also ensure careful exemptions for critical services."

NS: "But we believe this to be essential at this moment to help slow transmission.

Non-household contacts should continue to isolate pending a PCR result, if that is negative they can leave isolation as long as they are double vaccinated."

NS: "Second, I want to refer to Public Health Scotland’s advice yesterday that people should think about deferring work Christmas parties.

This is not easy advice to give or hear."

NS: "But it is incumbent on public health experts to set out clearly and frankly the risks we face and incumbent on me and government to pay attention."

NS: "There is a significant risk with Omicron - and we are already seeing the reality of it - of Christmas parties or events with lots of people becoming super-spreaders."

NS: "If that happens, lots of people get infected - and if these are work events, as well as the risk to individual health, there is a risk to the ability of the workplace to operate as people have to isolate."

NS: "I've already cited the train cancellations and the A&E unit in Lanarkshire as examples and illustrations of that."

NS: "But the public health advice - which I have no alternative but to agree with, given the evidence of risk that I have shared with you - is that we should all think a bit more carefully about unnecessary contacts, especially in crowded places just now."

NS: "And that it would be sensible to defer work Christmas parties.

I know this has a big impact on businesses, which is why we are considering - and pressing the UK Government - on financial support.

Once again we face a situation which, frankly, has no easy options."

NS: "We know that any additional protective measures will cause significant social and economic harms – especially after almost two years of this pandemic."

NS: "But we also know - from past experience - that early action is often needed when dealing with this virus."

NS: "In fact acting early, is often the best way of acting proportionately. And so we cannot rule out further measures.

And I'm afraid we cannot avoid the advice I have shared today.

I will continue to do all I can to be upfront and open in the days ahead."

NS: "And I continue to be so grateful for the responsibility the vast majority of people across the population are showing.

For now I will end with a plea to abide by all the current protections that we have in place. It is more important than ever."

NS: "In fact, doing that still gives us the best chance we have of minimising further restrictions.

So I want to stress once again what those protections are."

NS: "Firstly, please get vaccinated. What I've set out to you today is grim to hear, I understand that. But vaccination, even with that, means we are in a better position than last year and a vastly better position than we would be without it."

NS: "So please get your vaccination, first, second, booster dose, as soon as you are able to. It's the single best thing we can do and it's not too late if you haven't done that already."

NS: "Secondly, test yourself regularly and often.

If you are going to meet other people – then test before you do so."

NS: "And if you are asking someone round to your home, or organising a lunch or meet-up, test yourself and stress the importance to the people you're meeting of them doing the same."

NS: "Do that even if you're going out for Christmas shopping.

The evidence we have suggests that lateral flow tests are as effective at identifying Covid for Omicron cases, as they are for Delta cases."

NS: "That means they're a hugely important way of helping us to find out whether we might have the virus – even if we don’t have symptoms."

NS: "So if we take these tests before we go, if we're positive, isolate and get a PCR test, we significantly reduce the risk that we then pass the virus on inadvertently to others."

NS: "You can get LFT devices online at NHS Inform, they'll be mailed to your home, or get them from a local pharmacy, or test centre."

NS: "They're easy to get and they're going to be made available in other places - shopping centres, garden centres, for example - but they're easy to get and easy to use as well."

NS: "Finally, please comply with all the other basic protections.

It's more important than ever to wear your face coverings on public transport, in shops, and when moving about in hospitality settings."

NS: "Keep windows open when you’re meeting people indoors. I know that’s not easy in Scotland in December, but it does make a difference.

Follow all advice on hygiene.

And if you can, please work from home."

NS: "If you were working from home at the start of the pandemic, please work from home now.

Employers, if that was the case for your staff, please enable it to be the case now."

NS: "This is not a briefing any of you would have wanted to hear – it’s certainly not one I wanted to deliver, especially as we approach Christmas."

NS: "Just as I’m sure you long for the day you never have to see me or any of us at this podium again for a Covid briefing, let me assure you, I long never to have to do another Covid briefing again."

NS: "But we face a really challenging period ahead. And the only way through is together, with a shared understanding of what we need to do and a shared willingness to do it for our own sake and for the sake of all those around us."

NS: "And a key thing to remember is that – even with Omicron – we know the things we can do to make a difference.

So please – get vaccinated, test yourself regularly, and follow all of the other rules and guidelines."

NS: "That will help us get through, even with everything I've said today. I hope it will help us have a Christmas much more normal than last year, but above all, a Christmas that is safe, and allows us to go into the new year still hoping for that better spring ahead."