#Omicron data continue to accumulate, with this being perhaps the most serious indication I have yet seen about what we should expect in the next few months. Like @theosanderson says, these are increases in *daily* results 1/n
https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1469288135850872837?s=20
Was distracted before continuing the thread, and in that time this dropped. Once again the @UKHSA has provided incredibly prompt data collection and analysis. The upshot is that #omicron is definitely transmitting very readily indeed, and that matters 2/n assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Even if Omicron infections are mild (and they might be, especially in vaccinated people) they would have to be really really mild to prevent an acute burden on healthcare that is already stretched, resulting from very large numbers in a short period of time that will add up 3/n
and I can't say it enough - we don't know how mild these infections are. In many cases there hasn't been enough time for people to get seriously ill. Even w Delta the vast majority of those infected recover, and yet the daily deaths are about 100 in the UK and 1000 in the US 4/n
Mortality stats are often reported within 28 days - that's about halfway back to the origin of Omicron, which looks like it has been transmitting in humans since about mid October. Look how far it has come already, transmission wise 5/n
We will get good data on the severity of Omicron, but it is going to take time and will vary with vaccination status, age and other things. Given this transmission, by the time we have it nailed down, we will not be in a position to do much about what happens next 6/n
There is still a LOT of uncertainty, and the picture could change. But out of all the possible futures on offer, some of the rosier ones look ruled out. That doesn't mean the worse ones are guaranteed, but they're still on the table 7/end
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