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28 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
There are a few things to note here. First I want to remind people how many flights from ZA do *not* have cases on board - we won’t hear about those. It seems too that these 13/61 on this flight with omicron are those to have been identified *so far*… 1/n
It will be important to know if there are any common exposures (eg did they share a hotel?) and what on earth happened to any preflight screening protocols? This will be especially true if it turns out there are also any delta cases on the flight 2/n
Anyone who has traveled in the pandemic will know that some procedures are honored in the breach as well as the observance (going to the U.K. earlier this year, my forms were barely glanced at, by an official without a mask at a time they were supposedly required) 3/n
Still much to learn here. Including how to set up sustainable and effective screening programs, because they are part of a long term response rather than a reflexive and damaging travel ban that will be hard to maintain 4/end

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More from @BillHanage

Bill Hanage Profile picture
1 Dec
With #Omicron very real, I thought it worth going back to this, which I wrote with @mlipsitch at the start of the pandemic. It helps to think clearly about 3 types of information we have at the start of an outbreak amid uncertainty 1/n blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/h…
First there are the facts, then there is the interpretation of those and what they might mean about things that we’ve not been able to yet nail down into facts. This means expert opinion, based on previous experience, unpublished data, and conversations with colleagues 2/n
Then there's speculation. Sure it can be useful. But without a way to test whether we should take it seriously, we shouldn’t. Note that this can include really important things like why a particular policy choice was favored, but that’s not science 3/n
Read 12 tweets
Bill Hanage Profile picture
21 Nov
I’ve no objection to working with economists and indeed I have done so during the pandemic! That’s just one of the reasons this article seems to be addressing a straw man. It also misses something really important that shouldn’t be forgotten 1/n nytimes.com/2021/11/19/opi…
Few serious people argue that there are not trade offs between costs and benefits of different elements of pandemic response, but there is only so much a combined model of the sort proposed in the article can do. And at the start of a pandemic it could be actually damaging 2/n
The more complicated a model, the more information you need to make it work. At the start of a pandemic this is typically in very short supply. Remember the arguments about the infection fatality rate that lasted nearly a year? 3/n
Read 10 tweets
Bill Hanage Profile picture
14 Nov
Some outlets are trumpeting the currently small number of cases in Florida as vindicating the state’s covid-curious approach to the pandemic. The reality is different, and uncomfortable for undervaccinated communities here and around the world as the nights draw in 1/n
FL was always high risk for high mortality, if only because of the age profile of the population. However once effective vaccines were widely available in early 2021, there were reasons to think that bullet had been dodged. That’s not how things turned out 2/n
A combination of lax mitigation and poor vaccination in older age groups led to a large surge of infections with the Delta variant, which is both more transmissible and likely to lead to hospitalization 3/n
Read 14 tweets
Bill Hanage Profile picture
10 Nov
Ok just saw the first episode of season 4. Anyone who has ever heard me lecture on the importance of distinguishing between Burkholderia mallei and pseudomallei will understand how much pain it caused me
For more on what pseudomallei can do, see this recent non pandemic outbreak story foodsafetynews.com/2021/10/rare-b…
B. mallei on the other hand causes glanders (the name of the episode) which is a problem for horses rather than humans. Which confused the heck out of me (especially when a minor character wheels out a “meningitis” vaccine)
Read 7 tweets
Bill Hanage Profile picture
5 Nov
Hard to avoid noticing that the relationship between cases and deaths in the UK has not been severed, but nor has it been constant. The big delta spike in July had relatively few immediate severe consequences, that's no longer the case 1/?
The most recent data are showing a decline in case counts (when was the half term break?) and a slackening in the pace of hospitalizations, but it is clear that even if things slow (at least temporarily) the country is still in a bad place headed into the winter 2/?
Obviously the consequences of infections depend on who has been getting infected - even vaccinated older people are at higher risk than unvaccinated younger people (who are themselves not at zero risk. And even rare outcomes can add up when enormous numbers are infected) 3/?
Read 13 tweets
Bill Hanage Profile picture
22 Oct
The situation in the UK right now is complicated, with increasing cases while vaccines keep the very worst consequences at bay. However that makes no difference to the status of this as a contender for the most stupid statement of the pandemic bbc.com/news/uk-politi…
I wear masks at work unless alone in my office. Compliance is pretty good though not universal all the time. These are people I know. There have been no outbreaks there as yet. And we would know as we are all tested weekly
While I am at work I see people I know. Their ability to infect me is not altered by my knowing them. Most infections will be by someone you know
Read 4 tweets

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