Thread by @Molson_Hart

Here is my prediction.

This is not a carefully edited thread.

First of all, when I said covid was real people said I was crazy.

Then I said inflation was coming in a big way, and people thought, again, that I was crazy.

I predicted both in the same way. I had early info and

https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1469303720311668744

I understood how exponential spread worked and how psychological self-reinforcing inflation cycles worked because I guess I think differently from most people or something.

Anyways, so here is my prediction:

With a democratic legislature through 2022 and and the Fed's head in the sand, we're not going to increase interest rates in a way that is meaningful enough to a reduction in the inflation rate. If you look at wages and the fact there have not been this few job openings since

1959 or whatever, we have the wage => cost of goods => wages cycle that we had in the 1970s. I think the government is going to let this economy run hot, way too hot. They're going to pass the infrastructure bill and just make everything worse. The US government is insolvent.

There's no way we can keep spending the way we have and US debt pays sub 1% right now, but with inflation at 6.8% why on earth would anyone hold it unless they were totally insane. And if we do significantly raise rates, it's going to become impossible to finance gov't

expenditure. If we dramatically cut expenditure, besides chaos on the streets, the people in power get voted out. It's so much easier to not cut expenditure and hope everything is transitory.

So long story short, we're not going to raise interest rates to stop inflation until it's too late.

So basically you end up with 1970s style inflation. Same shit, different decade, but there's a new wrinkle in the situation which is key. In the 1970s there was no alternative to

the USD. Today, with electronic banking, you can convert your currency to other nations' currency and crypto significantly easier. This puts a competitive threat on the dollar that did not exist and can accelerate the inflation even more because no one will want to hold USD.

When this happens, we're going to get hyperinflation until we get a new steady state that is either the USD is backed again by something like gold or it's replaced altogether by crypto. USD loses reserve currency status but is continued to be use for every day transactions.

I said that in a as-a-matter-of-fact (or however you say that expression) way, but the actual process of making this transition is going to be extremely tumultuous and chaotic. Pair this with something like 50% of america not being able to afford a home where they live and shit

could, as the kids say (they dont' say this do they), "real". People who hold bitcoin are going to become enemies of the state. It's already starting to happen with Hillary saying that and now articles coming out that equates bitcoin with white supremacy. What's the timing?

I don't really know how long this is going to take but I think 2022 is the critical year. If the US government doesn't raise rates in a significant way and solve the budget deficit the system is going to break. I don't think they're going to do that so I think the system starts

to break in 2022. When does the dollar break? I don't know, probably this decade. I really don't think it's going to happen but there is a chance that they get their shit together and fix all this, but, yeah I don't see it happening. Hold me to this.

I understand that this viewpoint is going to be offensive to a lot of people, and that those people are going to think I'm crazy...again, but I think this is real. I'm probably early on this, and it will take longer than I expect, but this is my prediction.

If I'm right I'll probably be put in prison for this thread.

Okay, that's it.

Have a good weekend everyone.

/end