Thread by @AVindman

Supporting Ukraine is smart strategy. A prosperous Ukraine can compel change in Russia and upend the convergence of America’s two most dangerous adversaries. I explain the logic via this @NYTOpinion nytimes.com/2021/12/10/opi…

A prosperous Ukraine buttressed by American support makes an authoritarian Russia unviable in the long term.

Ukraine’s success would upend Russia’s irredentist aspirations for empire and highlight the Kremlin’s failures, just as West Germany’s achievements once did in comparison to the totalitarian East German state during the Cold War.

It may even convince the Russian people — who share a culture, history and religion with Ukrainians — to eventually demand their own framework for democratic transition.
To be sure, this doesn’t happen overnight. A generational investment is necessary to realize such a vision.

Nevertheless, the outlines of the stark contrast between a prosperous democratic Ukraine and a repressive and economically stagnant Russia are already evident. This is, in large part, why Mr. Putin needs Ukraine to be a failed state.

It feels ominously like 2014 again.

Russia is preparing to launch the largest military offensive in Europe since World War II.

To shift Mr. Putin’s calculus, it is imperative that the Biden administration’s policy toward Ukraine change both tactically and strategically.

The big issue at stake: the vital role a free & sovereign Ukraine plays in advancing U.S. interests against those of Russia and China.

Statements that U.S. interests end at NATO’s borders have only emboldened Mr. Putin to ignore international norms.

American neglect must end. After all, the United States and Ukraine share both ideology and long-term geopolitical interests.

Ukraine has made major strides in its experiment with democracy in the midst of war. The people have fought for basic rights and against repression.

A prosperous Ukraine buttressed by American support makes an authoritarian Russia unviable in the long term… just as West Germany’s once did in comparison to the totalitarian East Germany during the Cold War.

Mr. Putin needs Ukraine to be a failed state.

U.S. support for Ukraine helps drive apart China & Russia.

Preventing Mr. Putin from invading Ukraine demonstrates the strength of the West’s commitment to opposing autocracy & makes Russia a less potent partner to China as they both try to undermine the rules-based order.

To that end, the United States should bolster the defenses of NATO. This kind of deployment would signal that Russia’s aggression is driving the security posture Russia most wishes to avoid.

The Kremlin wishes to make NATO membership for Ukraine a central issue of any discussions. That’s a distraction right now because an assurance that Ukraine outside of NATO is unlikely to stop Russia from bringing Ukraine to heel.

The more important issue to consider is that negotiations with Russia should be dealt with at the level of European security. These talks should devise off-ramps that alleviate both European and Russian security concerns.

The United States should also engage Ukraine in more long-term bilateral initiatives on security, reform and economic cooperation. Washington should also sustain high-level relationship with Ukraine that isn’t defined by whether Kyiv is in crisis or not.

There are irrefutable benefits to the existence of a strong, democratic and independent Ukraine as a powerhouse at the crossroads.