Russian “aggression stems, in part, from a systemic level of corruption, which places Putin’s Russia in an increasing state of tension with the Western order. 1/
… This system is a hierarchy, the “vertical of power,” wherein Putin manages patronage networks in government agencies, state-owned enterprises and private businesses. These elements govern together as an oligarchy with the authority and protection of law… 2/
As Russia’s state-sponsored oligarchy seeks to compete economically and politically with the West...it will be important for the Biden administration to establish whether the Kremlin has a strategy to apply corruption as a tool of statecraft… 3/
Russian “foreign policy is driven by a state-sponsored oligarchy shaped by historical, economic, normative, & geopolitical factors. These systemic considerations can make it difficult to differentiate when Russian state and non-state actors are colluding in foreign countries… 4/
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Earlier this year @ZelenskyyUa stressed that the current sanctions regime against Russia imposed by the US and EU is no longer working. Now, he and his team are leading by example, offering a framework that the US, UK, and EU can follow.
Ukraine’s comprehensive sanctions list on Russian individuals and entities has been renewed and expanded to include oligarchs, financial institutions, the defense sector, airlines, multimedia organizations, etc.
These individuals and entities are located in or operate on behalf of Russia and the occupied territories in the Donbas and Crimea. They have participated, directly or indirectly, in a comprehensive assault on Ukrainian democracy and territorial integrity.
“[a] multilateral approach that leverages the strength of the U.S. alliance network will distribute the burden and increase the resources to counter the growing influence of authoritarian states on international institutions.”
The Trump administration’s approach of withdrawing the U.S. from international arrangements... only gave America’s adversaries more freedom to influence the rules of the international system. To counter authoritarianism, the Biden administration will need to reengage...
It is well past time to accept that a reset cannot happen with Putin & his devotees at the helm of Russia. Leaders should limit official engagement... Simultaneously, the U.S. & EU must restore contact with Russian civil society to preserve links for post-Putin Russia.
The Euro-Atlantic alliance must rely on continued pressure to deter Russian malign influence & military aggression. Operating from an uncompromising position of strength signals to Russian domestic audiences that Russia must seek alternatives to its current adversarial paradigm.
Biden’s desire for de-escalation that threatens a bilateral conflict is warranted, but the sense of risk is misplaced. Russia sees as much, if not more, risk in bilateralizing the conflict, but leverages saber-rattling to get the U.S. and European countries to self-deter.
Putin wants to shake up the West and bolster his support. Russia’s buildup along Ukraine serves to distract from internal challenges and intends to consolidate Russian support around an external threat. It’s also a way to challenge the Biden Admin & give Biden a FP black eye.
Russia’s interest & interior lines suggest Putin thinks he can escalate & win this confrontation. The Biden team must send the message there will be major costs for Russian escalation...sanctions & every bit of hardware the Ukrainians need to defend against & defeat an attack.
It’s a history of impunity, a lack of response to aggression & malign influence that brought us to this point. Biden’s efforts to rebaseline the relationship & reestablish deterrence was always going to increase the risk of confrontation. Best to rip the bandaid off now.
At noon on 1/20/21, Joseph R. Biden will be sworn in as the 46th POTUS. He will confront a daunting domestic agenda: the legacy of President Trump will include a rampant pandemic and a host of unresolved social, cultural, ideological, economic, and administrative problems.
Having committed himself to being the president of all Americans, Biden will need to contend with the grievances of millions who did not support him and who even question the legitimacy of his election. These domestic concerns will consume the preponderance of his time & energy.
But Biden’s de facto leadership of the “free world” beyond the United States’ borders will be equally important. China, Russia, and other authoritarian states, which have long seen democracy as an existential threat, are on the offensive.
This...inscrutable patchwork of foreign policy is not just inefficient, it risks disastrous mistakes by the United States... It also provides a potential opportunity for the sort of ethical misconduct that worries many about the debts and dealings...
After almost four years of this uncertainty, foreign government representatives simply shortcut the system and look for a White House back channel to figure out if the United States will zig when it’s supposed to zag...