Thread by @NIHargrave

Short Thread: general view among stepped out Tory apparatchiks for past year has been that Bojo operation hopeless but he'll probably get away with it because of teflon/Lab Scotland/Starmer bit uninspiring/COVID benefit of doubt/Tory papers look after ex member of chapel (1)

Generally in politics if something is too good to be true it normally is and doesn't last. I remember Theresa May's Reaganite numbers while watching catastrophe unfold on the ground floor of CCHQ in May '17 (2)

The notion of Johnson doing a decade like Thatcher has always seemed like a tall order. Not impossible - politics is different now and frankly not a deep bench of stardust on either side. But remember MT only started briefing 'on and on' post '87 when heading for her own curtain

Dig below hysterical long reads this week - and slavish puffs in previous times - and I think fundamentals a bit ropey for Tories heading into 2024 with Johnson. No election is pre ordained and the job of politicians is to shape events. But some thoughts... (4)

Elections are not actually that intellectually complicated, it's much harder to enforce/action simplicity and logic of course. But really you are just holding onto a base and squeezing swing (5)

To do that you need a message that can unite a coalition. In 2019, get Brexit done/Corbyn could be PM got you Workington and Wimbledon. In 2024 you don't have either of those (6)

For all the working class whispering in sw1 columns, do not over interpret residual loyalty to Tories in infamous Red Wall. They hated Corbyn, distant from Lab and liked swagger in a patriotic face off. This is not an emotional heartland for Conservatives. Can and will move. 7

Johnson never had Wimbledon and similar seats. Lots voted Tory last time because of corbynomics and anger at Westminster paralysis. For dreadful Corbyn campaign, crossover age to vote Tory was c.45 (8)

Demographic age issues with Johnson under reported last time. What do you think is happening in suburbs at moment as young professionals do more WFH and buy/rent bigger space out of urban centres (9)

To lose an election, you need to lose a smaller number of votes in each constituency than you think. If Reform go for it and Lab/Lib do unspoken tactics (public pacts waste of time and won't work) then you have another complicating factor (10)

To beat all this, you basically need a message. Wordsmithing to be done later but the one you'd go for is roughly - this is a delivery election - levelling up started but we need to finish the job (11)

This patter is more boring than showman Get Brexit Done. The policy substance is also harder - as @Gilesyb and others point out every government since Wilson (prob before) has tried to do a variation but forces of markets and nature hard to displace (12)

To win votes on this (not to mention policy outcomes) you need to convey a certain level of competence, graft and unsung diligence. DC could pull this off when he tried. Funnily enough, Theresa May might have done ok too if running on this essay question (13)

For Johnson, the Delivery Election was always going to be a harder ask. Not in the nature and you would need zero screw ups along the way. They pulled this off in Mayoral'12 but this time road is longer, pitch is infinitely bigger and a lot of political authority burnt last week

It's for this reason, that I've been more agnostic on Johnson chances next time. Labour have a structural mountain. But I don't think Keir Starmer walking into Number 10 happens by the nation choosing him, it comes through constituency attrition catalysed by Delivery Gap (15)

Anyway, nothing pre-ordained at all. Johnson could relaunch People's Government with no screw ups. He could be supplanted by a Delivery PM. As one of my former bosses would say, you are participants not commentators. Just remember that this is not all about wallpaper END