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The first 48 hrs in D Street are overwhelming for all new administrations. The start-up mentality of campaigning has to adapt quickly to the awesome complexity of governing.
There are two political decisions above all that this new administration will have to take in short order
There are two political decisions above all that this new administration will have to take in short order
Decision 1: what is your preferred Brexit outcome?
Is it leaving the European Union without a deal? This will be the inevitable consequence of axing the Irish border backstop entirely from the Withdrawal Agreement. As has been promised in this leadership campaign (2)
Is it leaving the European Union without a deal? This will be the inevitable consequence of axing the Irish border backstop entirely from the Withdrawal Agreement. As has been promised in this leadership campaign (2)
Or is it to perform some surface surgery on the backstop to make it more politically appealing? With an attendant sense of theatre and alchemy from the former Leader of Vote Leave who can communicate to the British people in a way his predecessor could not (3)
Decision 2: what is your chosen mechanism to getting to your preferred outcome through?
If it's full fat no-deal then - short of proroguing Parliament (which won't work) - you are going to have to call a general election or a second referendum to get a mandate. Which one? (4)
If it's full fat no-deal then - short of proroguing Parliament (which won't work) - you are going to have to call a general election or a second referendum to get a mandate. Which one? (4)
If it's surface surgery then you're going to have to be ready for a big showdown with the ERG - probably not all of them but some of them for sure.
To win this showdown, again you have to be ready to call a GE or a second ref on your revised deal to get it through Parl (5)
To win this showdown, again you have to be ready to call a GE or a second ref on your revised deal to get it through Parl (5)
You might not actually need to follow through on the threat in the end; people are weary. But given where things got to in March, there is every chance you might. And if you do, which is it: General Election or second referendum? (6)
For all the decisions coming on your desk in the next few days, take the time to make these two ones as a united team with a common sense of mission. Otherwise you run the risk of being pulled apart by events and the cacophony of voices you will face (7)
For the avoidance of doubt, on decision 1 - I strongly advise to go for political surgery on the existing backstop. On decision 2, more finely poised - but I think you'd be better off putting the revised deal to a referendum and then going for the General after we're out (8)
But these are your decisions to take. Whichever way you go, make sure you take them rather than assuming someone else has a plan. Strategy always beats no strategy. Give yourself the best chance of succeeding on your own terms (9)
