THREAD on why an election in the UK is not quite as fanciful as people think. This does not mean it is going to happen; but the risk of one is higher than commonly ascribed. My own preference is that Conservatives act sensibly and try and avoid it. Anyway, here we go (1/25)
Since June 2017 we have had a hung parliament in this country that cannot be brought to consensus on how to proceed on Brexit. The numbers do not work (2/25)
The Prime Minister’s strategy – such as it has existed – since the summer of last year has been that it will come right in the end because people will compromise when faced with the alternatives of a divisive second referendum or a disruptive No Deal (3/25)
That strategy hasn't worked because Brexit isn't about policies but values. There is much to commend the PM’s deal (a lonely position). It is logical and attempts to balance the instruction of a slim majority of the electorate without a major disruptive economic moment (4/25)
But some MPs are not really listening to nuanced evidence; they want their world view delivered. This reflects a growing culture across the developed world where arguments are polarised and ideology is back in fashion. This causes a lot of problems in a hung Parliament (5/25)
Anyway, back to why an election cannot be ruled out now. The common argument against an election is that Conservative turkeys won't vote for Christmas. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 separates confidence in the Government from the policy of the day causing division (6/25)
Given the numbers in Parliament, this theory only holds if you can be sure that all Conservative and DUP MPs will vote with the Government whenCorbyn decides to eventually call a confidence motion. Or that in subsequent votes of confidence, they will come back on board (7/25)
For that theory to work, you have to work on the basis that, when push comes to shove, all Conservative and DUP MPs think it is not worth taking the real risk of Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister (8/25)
As the debate moves on in the next few weeks, and as options on Brexit potentially begin to be closed off, I am not sure that is true for every single Conservative MP. Especially as some – not all – of the loudest on the poles have large constituency majorities (9/25)
You only need a few of these MPs not to support the Government in a confidence motions for things to get existential quickly. A few scenarios that test this, applicable whether Theresa May is the Conservative Prime Minister or not (10/25)
1. Somehow May’s deal, or a close variation of, gets through Parliament in the end with the support of moderate Labour votes and some Tory abstentions (11/25)
At that point, the objective of the most committed members of the ERG cannot be achieved. Might a handful think the only possible option to get their preferred Brexit outcome is a General Election under a platform separate to the institutional Tory Party? (12/25)
2. Much more likely, this current deal can’t get through and the pressure valve of tension is released. Whoever is Conservative PM at the time pivots to a second referendum position (13/25)
A handful of ERG Tories think the risk of Remain or May's Deal is now far too high. Again, might a handful think the best option to get their preferred Brexit outcome is a General Election under a platform separate to the institutional Tory Party? (14/25)
3. The current deal can’t get through and whoever is Conservative PM pivots to a managed no deal position. At that point, the objective of some of the most committed Pro Europeans cannot be achieved (15/25)
Might a handful think the only possible option to get their preferred Brexit outcome is a General Election under a platform separate to the institutional Tory Party? (16/25)
4 .The current deal can’t get through and there is broad consensus in the House that a clarifying moment in a second referendum is needed, including from the ERG. But now you need to pass legislation to implement the referendum, including on the questions put (17/25)
In this scenario, ERG Tories will demand that some form of managed no deal is put on the ballot paper. I think you are going to struggle to get a majority in the House for that in its current composition; not impossible but it's going to be tight (18/25)
If managed no deal does not get on the ballot paper, might a handful of the committed ERG Tories think the best option to get their preferred outcome is a General Election under a platform separate to the institutional Tory Party? (19/25)
5. Against all the odds, a referendum does go on the statute book and we have the vote. Then what? Whatever option people go for- Remain, May’s Deal, Managed No Deal - you are still going to have a divided country and reams of attendant legislation needed to implement it (20/25)
I find it hard to see the current group of Conservative and DUP MPs holding together as a cohesive unit to implement that legislation either, whatever the outcome of a second referendum and whoever is the PM (21/25)
These are not the only scenarios that may come to pass. Ultimate loyalty to the Conservative cause over the purity of Brexit may in the end hold a higher primacy among the most committed Conservative MPs than I have judged (22/25)
Political leadership is also a funny thing and a new Conservative PM might have a better shot at uniting the party through sheer force of character, optimism about the future - and persuading colleagues that the real opponent is Corbyn (23/25)
There is the important point that Labour are far from a united party themselves and might not back Corbyn's own motion of confidence when it comes. Rather than pulling the trigger, MPs might also decide a Government of National Unity is a better option than election chaos (24/25)
Finally, I make no comment about the result of said election. Every hundred years or so after all the UK has an election that shakes up the established political order. But my point is simply this today: do not blithely rule out an election before 2022 (25/25)
