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Kris Van Steenbergen Profile picture
@KrVaSt
Dec 11, 2021 • 8 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Sea level rise is about to hit a rate of 2.5 mm a month (proof is coming soon).
96% caused by basal melting below both ice sheets:
4°-6°C warmer at 100m!
Antarctic surface melt is only responsible for 2% of SLR.
Oceans are increasing their contribution (thermal expansion)!

#AR7 ImageImageImageImage
Basal melting:

Warmer & saltier ocean water flowing through channels, fjords, troughs & subglacial lakes is responsible for the rapid warm-up of the Antarctic ice sheet (lower part).

Surface melt:

Draining of supraglacial lakes is causing a destabilization of the upper part. ImageImageImage
Pine Island glacier & Thwaites glacier are facing a rapid warm-up & a rapid salinization of the entire water column in front of their calving field.
Also Cook, Ninnis, Mertz, Frost, Totten, Vanderford, Scott & Denman glacier are facing extreme warm underflows (& Amery Ice Shelf). ImageImageImageImage
Or a short simpler summary:

The major tipping point of latent heat is taking over the balance of cooling & warming in the Southern Ocean.
A new & much warmer equilibrium is very near (current, temp & salt)
Antarctic sea ice volume is about to become very close to zero (mid Jan). Image
Large amounts of methane are coming out of the edges of big subglacial basins like Byrd, Aurora, Wilkes & Vincennes Subglacial Basin.

This suggests the soil underneath the ice sheet is reaching crucial thawing points caused by intrusion of ocean warmth.
pulse.ghgsat.com/?lat=-72.03&ln… ImageImageImageImage
Compared to the latest El-Niño year (2015) we do see a large shift towards a warmer Weddell Sea, more warmth above the Wilkes Subglacial Basin & above the Byrd Subglacial Basin.
pulse.ghgsat.com/?lat=-75.63&ln…
pulse.ghgsat.com/?lat=-82.73&ln…
pulse.ghgsat.com/?lat=-76.22&ln…

Even worse compared to 2020!!
2015 was an El-Niño year.
2021 was a La-Niña year.

That's the most shocking part.
We observe large clusters of anomalous warmth near the main entrance of the Aurora/Vincennes/Wilkes Subglacial System.
Fast retreat & rapid thinning of Cook, Ninnis & Mertz Glacier is opening the gate & thaws the subglacial permafrost. Even with an ice cap of -25°C on top of it. ImageImageImageImage

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More from @KrVaSt

Kris Van Steenbergen Profile picture
Mar 11
Remember this article.
Read it & think about it.

Right now we're losing the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS), and with it the rest of the glacier & the entire West Antarctic Ice Shelf (WAIS)!

How long before climate change claims the Thwaites Glacier? thenationalnews.com/weekend/2023/0…
worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-1616511.94…
@MarkTrewick1
Here's a little more explanation.
First & foremost, it's important to understand the teleconnection between Greenland & Antarctica via sea level rise (and fall).
Meltwater from Greenland has a greater effect on sea levels in the southern hemisphere & vice versa.
Read 10 tweets
Kris Van Steenbergen Profile picture
Jan 24
--- Thwaites Glacier ---

We must dare to share the story of the Thwaites Glacier in all honesty, & with all the knowledge we currently have about it, with the most affected group, humanity & with nature as a whole.

worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-1643416.42…
The loss of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf will directly cause a sea level rise of 2 to 3 millimeters.
The loss of the glacier tongue behind it & the inland floating parts will cause an indirect sea level rise of 10 cm to 1 meter, due to sliding land ice.
If the land ice & semi-floating ice above the Byrd Subglacial Basin start to break & shear, then we can speak of a self-reinforcing effect due to the sea level rise itself, or better due to the lifting & destabilization of all ice shelves, glaciers & high land ice.
Read 6 tweets
Kris Van Steenbergen Profile picture
Sep 13, 2023
BREAKING
(to make it clearer)

Today the 2-month running mean anomaly (reference period 1850-1900) has hit 1.5°C!

0.97°C above the baseline 1979-2000 (used in this graph from ECMWF) means the same as 1.5°C above the baseline 1850-1900 (pre-industrial times).
@UNFCCC
@COP28_UAE
Image
Main cause:
The global mean sea surface temperature increased by 0.35°C (annual average) in just one year (not entirely induced by El Niño conditions).

These extreme conditions seem to hold on, no matter what'll happen in the Niño sector.

#abruptwarming

climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
Image
This also means we have to expect:

- the 3-month running mean anomaly will hit 1.5°C within 7 to 10 days.
- the 6-month running mean anomaly will hit 1.5°C within 1 to 2 months.
- the 12-month running mean anomaly will hit 1.5°C within 3 to 5 months.

2023: +1.5°C?
2024: +1.7°C? Image
Read 4 tweets
Kris Van Steenbergen Profile picture
Jan 19, 2023
--- Thwaites Glacier ---
Story of the fingernails!

This could become the longest thread I've ever written, because I want to ask experts to respond to this, because I want to create a question-answer forum and I want to make it understandable for everyone.
Questions are welcome. Image
The central part of the calving field exerts a force on the western flank of the glacier tongue parallel to the submarine slope, which could potentially cause serious destabilization if iceberg B45 (pinning point 9) detaches & slides towards iceberg B22a into deeper water.
The Thwaites Glacier Tongue, its debris & a few neighbouring features are losing grip. Pinning points (or anchor points if you want) like point 4, 6 & 8 are very important to monitor, because when the fast ice above them will melt a little more they'll be lost as buttress system. Image
Read 13 tweets
Kris Van Steenbergen Profile picture
Dec 19, 2022
Before you start reading this thread you need to sit down.
Our researched theory is simple:
"Could large icebergs, which are crossing, following & disturbing the route of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, effect the strenght & the time scale of La Niña events?"
Answer: probably!
We're talking about the largest icebergs here! For example iceberg A76a.

We investigated the history, the paths & the locations of all icebergs with a minimum thickness of 300 to 800 meters & which can therefore extend up to 260 to 700 meters below the surface of the water.
These icebergs come close to the ACC & they start to melt from below at 200 to 600 meters deep, which creates freshwater layers at depths from 300 to 400 meters.

This fresh water doesn't sink (not salty enough) & doesn't rise (too cold). It travels north right below the surface.
Read 28 tweets
Kris Van Steenbergen Profile picture
Dec 16, 2022
In our history large icebergs from Antarctica often triggered the beginning of an ice age.
We seem to get into the same situation again. Or not?
50 icebergs are a potential risk.
40% of these icebergs will probably enter the South Atlantic within 6 months.
cryospherecomputing.com/icebergs.html
The northward drift in the western part of the Weddell Sea is speeding up.
Unprecedentedly busy iceberg traffic in the Scotia Sea will possibly shut down all shipping traffic in the Scotia Sea for a couple of years & will probably even close down the entire Drake Passage.
These large amounts of melting ice (+70,000 gigatonnes), which are releasing way too much freshwater into the Southern Ocean & into the South Atlantic (and eventually also into the South Pacific), could cause a permanent La Niña, a new ice age or even both. Nothing seems certain.
Read 14 tweets

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