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Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

10 Dec

Statistics Canada has been asking kids about mental health during the pandemic. Initially, after the first 5 months (with school shutdowns, summer break, lots of restrictions), more kids said they were better than worse, most reported no change.

86% "No change or better"

[/1]

As the pandemic has pressed on, school started up again, wave after wave came, and kids continue to tell us when we ask them that things are getting worse for them.

[/2]

Our most recent survey (april), things have changed. When asked, kids are far less likely to tell us they are "the same or better" (-22%) and far more likely to tell us they are doing worse with their mental health: (+21%).

[/3]

Read 9 tweets

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

8 Dec

🧵"Eggheads"🧵

"Data scientists" (quite frequently crypto dudes) all over the internet demonstrate why foundational knowledge is so important. Eggheads like them can manipulate numbers, but without the ability to place them in context, they are unaware of their foolishness.

/1

"ONLY 700 kids have died of COVID in the US" demonstrates a complete lack of knowledge of childhood mortality

"credit scores are correlated with residency performance, so they could be used in selecting candidates" is incredible ignorance to systemic classism and racism

/2

"there were 5 more child suicides in our county of during the pandemic" belies a foundational lack of statistical knowledge

"there are more cases among the unvaccinated" shows that they don't understand the basics about rates

/3

Read 4 tweets

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

5 Dec

All Vinay, Wes, & Stefan need to say is, "our article, had it been heeded, would have led to even more spread of COVID, threatening the lives of many more, and obviously now would have resulted in more children dying. It's clear now that emergency authorization was appropriate."

Instead, its a bit embarrassing to say, but they seem more interested in redefining their message (Stefan embarrassingly now claiming all they wanted was for ACIP to meet...) than admitting that there can be a downside to being too cautious during an emergency situation.

Of course, the title gives away the message which is... and I'm not kidding, "We should wait longer for more data to come in before making this decision."

Read 8 tweets

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

3 Dec

@CDCgov

Full Subgroup Analysis, US Suicides 2020
-=-=-= LONG = THREAD =-=-==-

2020's effect on suicide can now be analysed thanks to @CDCgov at the yearly level. Very shortly I'll be able to look monthly as well.

This is the whole US population, but we can now do subgroups. /1

The big headline: Children 10-14 did NOT have a significant increase in suicides. It was well within expected rate variability. Error bars shown.

Because of small #'s, the rate changes can be drastic.

The 2020 increase was less than '00, '04, '07, '09, '13, '14, '17 and '18 /2

In other words, no evidence that the "lockdown" phase of the pandemic caused more child suicides, and no evidence that 2020 was associated with a significant increase in child suicides. /3

Read 16 tweets

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

3 Dec

Suicidology during the Pandemic (US)
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=
(and a quick lesson in visualization)

Suicide rates decreased significantly when the pandemic started, and remained lower than 2019 for the remainder of the year. This is the monthly breakdown.

#COVID19 /1

This is the best way to visualize yearly changes, and media types/communication types, please take note. This graph contains all of the necessary information to put a yearly change into context.

This graph is my invention, called the "GETH"

Why is it the best, you ask? /2

FIRST: it standardizes each month and year to "per 100,000 per year". Populations change over time and months have 28-31 days. This variation matters and without controlling, introduces error. /3

Read 11 tweets

Tyler Black, MD

@tylerblack32

30 Nov

https://twitter.com/JasoKane/status/1465436333481074701

This is one of the true issues of COVID when it comes to preventing transmission/reducing spread, and protecting children. Eggheads & doofuses will focus on how "rare" it is for kids to die (tho its a leading cause of death in kids), but so many children have suffered d/t COVID.

https://twitter.com/JasoKane/status/1465436333481074701

Doofus: "0.00x% of kids die" - there are other issues with COVID spreading through a community that severely harm children

Egghead: "masks stop kids from reading facial expressions, and being out of school could cause problems" - how about losing a parent to preventable disease

Every human who can be vaccinated should be vaccinated, and we should be doing everything we can to prevent the preventable deaths and illnesses that occur due to COVID. This has *always* been the answer to "how can we help our kids the most?"

Read 5 tweets

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