1/ One of the major questions that you will have when you begin investing is this: What does it take to generate substantial money passively over a somewhat reasonable amount of time? The answer: $650 per month for twenty years.
2/ If someone in 1990 was earning the average income and wanted to generate $67k passively in 2021 (the US median household income), it would require setting aside a bit over $200 per month into Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola, and McDonalds stock.
3/ For someone earning the US median household income personally throughout this entire timeframe without any raises above what the US median household earned, this would require a 19% savings rate in Year 1 but only a 11% savings rate currently.
4/ With wealth-building, the inquiry is: "How do I make money while I am sleeping?" When you are selling your labor, you are being compensated at a rate that the employer can earn a profit and capture all the upside of what you generate.
5/ Part of the appeal of stock investing is that you get to sidestep the finiteness of labor. When you work for a living, you exchange a paycheck for certain cash and that is it. The transaction is now over. If you want any more benefits, you must go out there and give up time.
6/ With stock investing, you get two benefits. First, the corporate form is perpetual. Absent a bankruptcy or a buyout (which means $$$ and a new perpetual entity), you get to benefit forever. Also, the form has limited liability, so if Enron happens, you don't get a bill.
7/ People always say investing is about making money while you are sleeping. Another way to put it, you are the principal reaping the rewards of the agent. With a job, you are the agent (employer gets upside). With a stock, you are the principal (stockholder get upside).
8/ I used MCD, KO, and JNJ as examples for a reason. They were longstanding dividend payers with excellent track records and DRIP plans back in 1990. You could have bought stock in these enterprises for no more than $1 or $2 per transaction.
9/ And they are "perpetual earners". Wherever you go, Coke products fly off the shelves. They manufacture a third of the world's beverages for other brands too. McDonald's is so busy they created a second line. Johnson & Johnson has so many brands I can't name them (look it up).
10/ Guess what, the guy driving a truck to drop off the soda, taking your order in the McDonald's drive thru, and ringing up your midnight Tylenol purchase at the gas station is part of the web that has showered wealth down upon owners for literally generations.
11/ And over a 20-year period of new purchases, dividend reinvestment, and overall growth, such a median US earner could have amassed a $2.8 million portfolio that now generates $68k in annual passive income (12 checks of roughly $5,600 per year). And, unlike labor, it continues.
12/ When you work and get a paycheck, it's over. But with this passive income, you could conceivably sell it for $2.8 million in cash if you decided you wanted to end it. It's there for the taking. Or better yet, you roll on with it, and watch your $5,600 checks grow.
13/ With blue-chip stocks in general, there is a tendency to double your income every 7-8 years. So, once this foundation is established, you could be spending your $4,200 checks (after paying $1400 to gov't) all the time and your income would still double by around 2028.
14/ Switch from agent to principal mode, and you are positioned for unlimited upside. Unlocking the limits of your upside, generating income and ploughing it back into the same or another stock for more unlimited upside is the key to wealth (i.e. "the fruits of compounding").
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1/ When it comes to successful investing, there is a substantial persuasion gap between what you hear from the value investors and those who invest in the newest thing that's supposed to take over the world. This has enormous consequences for the net worth of every American.
2/ Whenever there is talk of a new industry, the hypemeisters come out and tell you about the 1,000,000% returns that await the space. It takes the frontier spirit you have and tries to map on a form of Manifest Destiny to crypto, electric cars, and sustainable whatever.
3/ Someone was an early settler of Florida, New York, California, Texas, and so on and ended up with hundreds of acres of land now worth countless millions. "Buy this alternative currency and it will be you someday."
1/ In a world where everyone seems to want to invest nearly all of their funds into tech, I thought it would be worthwhile to take a moment to reflect on the role of non-tech stocks in an investment portfolio and the advantage they bring to long-term wealth creation.
2/ The advantage of tech stocks is well known. Scalability with intangible goods can take you from 0 to 1,000,000 (or higher) in a matter of time. Successful full video games are one of the best examples of this - a couple of guys create code, pick a platform, and
3/ then can earn theoretically limited sales without encountering the limiting factors of property, equipment, labor, and the proportionality that characterizes most of the "real world." While this approach can support rapid growth, the prospect of going to zero always looms.
1/ I want to reflect on several topics: Apple stock (which many own either outright or through many workplace 401k funds), stock market valuations and the future of returns, and Charlie Munger's comments this past week at the Sohn Conference.
2/ Charlie Munger offered a very profound observation when he said that the current market mania is crazier than the 1990s and "everyone who bought a stock at a P/E ratio 10 and now finds it at 35 thinks himself a genius" when criticizing the nature of current investment gains.
3/ That was clearly a veiled reference/synecdoche where he was Berkshire Hathaway's returns with Apple stock over the past five years (bought at an average price of 12x earnings and now trading at 28x earnings) as a shorthand for much of the market as a whole.
1/ We need to talk about the difference between "gambling" and "investing". Every market cycle has its risks. When times are tough, I remind investors that they own assets and have a perpetual claim on the *forever* future of the business absent insolvency. But....
2/ In bull markets, a different risk shows up. And that is the seduction of gambling. Right now, our culture makes it easier than ever to gamble. There are TV commercials, websites, and right now as I watch the Giants-Dodgers baseball game, gambling imprints placed on the mound.
3/ With investing, we now live in the Robinhood culture where almost two-thirds of the company's funds come from behind-the-scenes deals relating to options contracts that are...free to the user. The culture is presently begging you to abandon discipline at all turns.
1/ One of my favorite investing questions: How on earth did Monster Energy $MNST compound a total of 70,515% since 1985, turning a $10,000 investment into $7 million over that same time frame while the average American household generated total income of $1.8 million?
2/ As is always the case when it comes to the "supercompounders" of the investment world, Monster Beverage's long-term success is a combination of: good product, good structure, and good management.
3/ The first one, good product, is hard to define. We live in a world where everything is reduced to numbers, yet the reason we make a decision is very subjective. But if you throw sugar + caffeine + citric acid at consumers, they will respond enthusiastically.
Financial media is always interested in content, fresh ideas, and the latest cutting edge. There is a lot of value here, but there is also a lot of trouble because it can lead susceptible investors to play "gin rummy" with their portfolio by constantly buying/selling stocks.
To use an example, Apple is the most widely held stock on Robinhood over the past five years. It has returned 418% over that time frame, 462% with dividends reinvested. An extraordinary return!
But there's the catch (there's always a catch). The average Robinhood user only achieved 11% returns for a cumulative return of 70%, presumably 91% with dividends reinvested.