1/4
According to Paul Nantulya, from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, “China’s policy banks have grown increasingly concerned about borrowers’ ability to repay loans and grown wary about extending finance.”
scmp.com/news/china/dip… via @scmpnews
2/4
I've long argued that the rapid expansion before 2015 of Chinese financing in developing countries had far more to do with its lack of experience than with any superior financing model, as so many claimed even 3-4 years ago.
3/4
This was nothing new. Many other countries with burgeoning trade surpluses had previously done the same thing, with similar levels of confidence and enthusiasm, and soon enough, as losses began to mount, they all retreated, as China inevitably would too.
4/4
I know many think that China's bad loans were made as part of a plot to enslave poorer countries, but I'd argue that the real cause of bad loans was bad lending practices in which risk was systematically underestimated. That is becoming less likely as China gains experience.

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More from @michaelxpettis

11 Dec
1/4
Puzzling article. I am not sure why, if Beijing is indeed worried about China's vulnerability to changes in US monetary policy (as it should be), that “China should waste no time in diversifying from US dollar assets”.
scmp.com/economy/china-… via @scmpnews
2/4
Beijing is reportedly concerned that a US rate hike could cause outflows from emerging markets, including China, and could strengthen the value of the US dollar against other currencies, including the RMB. They're right to worry. The Chinese economy is indeed vulnerable.
3/4
But if a US rate hike causes outflows, China's financial markets will be affected whether or not Chinese entities hold dollar assets, and if the dollar rises, dollar assets would in fact be the best thing to hold.
Read 4 tweets
11 Dec
1/4
According to, Han Wenxiu, a senior economic policymaker commenting on the just-completed December economic work conference, “Stability is the most prominent keyword of the conference this time.”
scmp.com/economy/china-… via @scmpnews
2/4
The frequency with which the world “stability” was repeated in the post-conference release has already been pretty widely noted, and in his comments Han goes on to say...
3/4
that “all regions and departments should bear the responsibility of stabilising the macroeconomy, which is not only an economic issue but also a political issue.”

That's seems a pretty blunt way of putting it.
Read 4 tweets
10 Dec
1/4
Thoughtful piece by Caixin on the end, at least for now, of the traditional relationship between USD and RMB. Until quite recently, the strength of RMB vs USD was inversely related to USD versus all currencies.
caixinglobal.com/2021-12-09/yua…
2/4
This shouldn't be a big surprise. It just means that contrary to what many seem to think the RMB no longer trades against the dollar, but rather against a basket of currencies, something we've long known. But this inverse relationship has changed in the past few months.
3/4
As USD strengthened, RMB strengthened against USD, which means it has soared against the basket. The reason, it seems pretty clear, is that trade and financial inflows into China have surged, making it very hard to keep the RMB from rising, even against a rising USD.
Read 4 tweets
9 Dec
1/7
Even bank analysts, who should know better, are confusing rising trade surpluses with rising export growth, and are suggesting that slower increases in China's exports next year should result in smaller surpluses.
scmp.com/economy/china-… via @scmpnews
2/7
Export growth may indeed slow next year as more countries resume normal supply chain operations, but if the trade surplus contracts, the latter will have very little to do with the former.
3/7
China's trade surplus has surged in the past two years mainly because household income growth has continued to lag GDP growth, and this has pushed up the overall savings rate just as Beijing was trying to rein in non-productive investment.
Read 7 tweets
9 Dec
1/9
Interesting article. An economy's "real" wealth is the total value of goods and services it produces. While there are problems with the way GDP measures this, GDP growth is a rough but mostly unbiased proxy for the growth in England's real wealth.
ft.com/content/68b06c…
2/9
According to World Bank data, English GDP rose in real terms by 1.2% a year between 2000 and 2020. According to this article, however, the value of English real estate rose in real terms by 3.0% a year during the period, or two and a half times faster than GDP.
3/9
Unless there has been a substantial increase in the production of goods and services associated with real estate – and one that has not shown up at all in the GDP data – then clearly there has been a transfer of wealth In England.
Read 10 tweets
7 Dec
1/6
You have to be very careful about using year-on-year data after a year like 2020. According to Reuters (and lots of other news agencies) "China's exports growth lost steam in November, pressured by a strong yuan, weakening demand and higher costs."
reuters.com/world/china/ch…
2/6
But this isn't true at all. Chinese exports grew more rapidly month on month in November than they did in October, and in fact Chinese exports grew at one of the fastest month-on-month paces in two years.
3/6
Exports also grew more rapidly over a two-year period in November than they did in October. That is why I'd argue that export growth actually accelerated in November rather than "lost steam". So why are Reuters and so many others saying otherwise?
Read 6 tweets

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