Thread by @danielgoyal

Preventing lockdown…
Our gov have had one eye on herd immunity since The start. This shaped policy and provision.
It must now change if we are to suppress Omicron - avoid lockdowns - and protect the public.

Mistakes are forgivable; failing to learn from them is not.

RT pls

Herd immunity leads to an attempt to minimise casualties NOT suppress infection.

Omicron is set to overwhelm healthcare providers. This will lead to higher mortality from Covid and Non-Covid disease.

Two things can stop it:
▪️Suppression of cases
▪️Optimising Care Capacity

1. Find the Sick!
Cough, Fever and loss of taste/smell account for less than 50% of presentations in early disease.

We must add “cold/flu-like symptoms” as reasons to test and isolate. It may be test and release is possible. But to avoid lockdown, we must catch more cases early

2. Treat the sick!
We got this way wrong before. The “STAY HOME” mantra neither saved life nor healthcare capacity. It simply led to people presenting late and then requiring longer admissions and higher dependency care. Undoubtedly this led to higher levels of #LongCovid & death

To make best use of the very limited hospital capacity It is ABSOLUTELY essential that we identify those who would benefit from treatment as early as possible. The Passive approach, particularly with silent hypoxia, does not work. We must get a good turnaround of Covid patients.

This requires:
1. Triage of all patients. For low risk patients this could be remote or via phone.
2. Follow-up. Strong safety advice - a low threshold for contact is essential (silent hypoxia). All at risk groups MUST be followed-up…life-saving and can keep hospitals open.

…typically a patient early on in disease who needs oxygen need only receive basic care for a few days. Those who present with high oxygen use later, require higher level care and a much longer hospital stay.

Proactive triage and follow-up protects the NHS.

3. Stop others getting sick!
There are many others more qualified than I who to discuss mitigation strategies: @trishgreenhalgh @dgurdasani1 @chrischirp @devisridhar @Kit_Yates_Maths…

But what I can comment on is the NEED for healthcare capacity to prevent Covid and non-Covid deaths, AND to help avoid Lockdowns.

Lockdowns always come on the back of NHS reaching capacity. No space to treat heart attacks, sepsis, strokes, etc…

Increase healthcare capacity through redeployment & field hospitals (temp hospitals) NOW!

Here’s the kicker: all the good-will has been used up over the last 4 waves and the 1% pay rise.

Suggestion: this time round, instead of investing in non-clinical commercial partners…

Summary,
1. Find the Sick
2. Treat the sick (early)
3. Stop others getting sick.

Get your booster, mask-up, avoid indoor gatherings, stay alert to severe Covid….

And maybe we can have less lockdowns and less death & disability.
END

Preventing lockdown thread

Can we start emulating those who have had success: South Korea, Singapore, Norway, NZ, etc…

@NicolaSturgeon @HumzaYousaf

And some help raising awareness pls:
@daraobriain @HackedOffHugh @campbellclaret @stephenfry @EwanMcGregorNet @DeborahMeaden