1/x
Wow, my first thread.
Analyzing the NQZ21 contract, I looked at 9/2 to 12/10 and at various opening ranges (OR), gap fills and overnight high/low. I only looked at the last 72 days. I downloaded data from Sierra chart and analyzed it in excel. #NQ_F #NQ
Wow, my first thread.
Analyzing the NQZ21 contract, I looked at 9/2 to 12/10 and at various opening ranges (OR), gap fills and overnight high/low. I only looked at the last 72 days. I downloaded data from Sierra chart and analyzed it in excel. #NQ_F #NQ
2/x
I did use NQ close data from Yahoo finance because the previous close line on SC was being stubborn and not giving me correct data (probably my fault). There’s a bunch of numbers and percentages, you can scroll to the end if you’d like, or ignore it. idc.
I did use NQ close data from Yahoo finance because the previous close line on SC was being stubborn and not giving me correct data (probably my fault). There’s a bunch of numbers and percentages, you can scroll to the end if you’d like, or ignore it. idc.
3/x
30m OR L =LOD 38.9% (28/72)
30m OR H =HOD 31.9% or (23/72)
So 70.8% (51/72) of the time, the 30 min OR puts in HOD or LOD.
Which means both sides are broken 29.2% (21/72) because the 30m OR did not put in both the HOD and LOD at any point.
30m OR L =LOD 38.9% (28/72)
30m OR H =HOD 31.9% or (23/72)
So 70.8% (51/72) of the time, the 30 min OR puts in HOD or LOD.
Which means both sides are broken 29.2% (21/72) because the 30m OR did not put in both the HOD and LOD at any point.
4/x
5m L=LOD 13.9% (10/72)
5m H=HOD 16.7% (12/72)
30.6% (22/72) of the time, the 5 min OR puts in HOD or LOD.
15m L=LOD 33.3% (24/72)
15m H=HOD 22.2% (16/72)
Kind of surprising that the 15m OR puts in the HOD or LOD 55.6% (40/72) of the time.
5m L=LOD 13.9% (10/72)
5m H=HOD 16.7% (12/72)
30.6% (22/72) of the time, the 5 min OR puts in HOD or LOD.
15m L=LOD 33.3% (24/72)
15m H=HOD 22.2% (16/72)
Kind of surprising that the 15m OR puts in the HOD or LOD 55.6% (40/72) of the time.
5/x
What OR should you use? How often are they the same?
5m ORL =15m ORL 40.5% (29/72)
5m ORH =15m ORH 51.4% (37/72)
At least one side of 5m OR = 15m OR 81.9% (59/72)
5m ORL =30m ORL 31.9% (23/72)
5m ORH =30m ORH 36.1% (26/72)
At least one side of 5m OR = 30m OR 65.3% (47/72)
What OR should you use? How often are they the same?
5m ORL =15m ORL 40.5% (29/72)
5m ORH =15m ORH 51.4% (37/72)
At least one side of 5m OR = 15m OR 81.9% (59/72)
5m ORL =30m ORL 31.9% (23/72)
5m ORH =30m ORH 36.1% (26/72)
At least one side of 5m OR = 30m OR 65.3% (47/72)
6/x
15m ORL =30m ORL 61.1% (44/72)
15m ORH =30m ORH 50% (36/72)
At least one side of 15m OR =30m OR 94.4% (68/72)
15m OR H/L = both 30m OR H/L 16.7% (12/72)
I will use the 15m OR because it is rarely both sides of the 30m OR and 50% of the trading days the HOD or LOD is in.
15m ORL =30m ORL 61.1% (44/72)
15m ORH =30m ORH 50% (36/72)
At least one side of 15m OR =30m OR 94.4% (68/72)
15m OR H/L = both 30m OR H/L 16.7% (12/72)
I will use the 15m OR because it is rarely both sides of the 30m OR and 50% of the trading days the HOD or LOD is in.
7/x
RTH High > OVNH 68.1% (49/72)
RTH Low < OVNL 58.3% (42/72)
At least one overnight range breaks 93.1% of the time (67/72)
Both break 33.3% (24/72)
Realistically all trades taken inside of overnight range should be targeting outside of range.
RTH High > OVNH 68.1% (49/72)
RTH Low < OVNL 58.3% (42/72)
At least one overnight range breaks 93.1% of the time (67/72)
Both break 33.3% (24/72)
Realistically all trades taken inside of overnight range should be targeting outside of range.
8/x
Using 15m OR and OVNH/L..
Both sides of the 15m OR break 44.4% (32/72) of the time, and of that, 56.3% (18/32) both the OVNH and OVNL break. If there is a 15m OR break to the upside, but later in the day the bottom of that OR is broken, I'd short it targeting OVNL.
Using 15m OR and OVNH/L..
Both sides of the 15m OR break 44.4% (32/72) of the time, and of that, 56.3% (18/32) both the OVNH and OVNL break. If there is a 15m OR break to the upside, but later in the day the bottom of that OR is broken, I'd short it targeting OVNL.
9/x
Nq gapfills 65.3% (47/72) of the time and 41.7% (29/72) of the time it fills within the first 30 minutes.
If nq opens with less than a 60 pt gap, it fills 73.2% (30/41) of the time, if nq opens with less than 60 pt gap it fills 65.9% (27/41) of the time within 30 minutes.
Nq gapfills 65.3% (47/72) of the time and 41.7% (29/72) of the time it fills within the first 30 minutes.
If nq opens with less than a 60 pt gap, it fills 73.2% (30/41) of the time, if nq opens with less than 60 pt gap it fills 65.9% (27/41) of the time within 30 minutes.
10/x
My takeaways,
If OVNH or L has not been tagged, hold runners to at least that target.
Don't fade the morning trend, look for opportunities to hop on.
30m OR did not put in both the HOD and LOD
stks go up stks go down
My takeaways,
If OVNH or L has not been tagged, hold runners to at least that target.
Don't fade the morning trend, look for opportunities to hop on.
30m OR did not put in both the HOD and LOD
stks go up stks go down
I just spent my Sunday analyzing #NQ just to say don’t take profit early and don’t fade trend. Brilliant.
kind of messy, it is hard to put all of this in 280 characters a message and keep it organized. I have a new respect for people who do threads.
kind of messy, it is hard to put all of this in 280 characters a message and keep it organized. I have a new respect for people who do threads.
One thing to add,
If the 30m ORL is less than the 15m ORL (continuation down), 85.7% (4/28) the RTH low was lower than the 30m ORL.
same the other way,
If the 30m ORH is greater than the 15m ORH, 80.5% (7/36) the RTH high is higher than the 30m ORH. Do not fade continuation.
If the 30m ORL is less than the 15m ORL (continuation down), 85.7% (4/28) the RTH low was lower than the 30m ORL.
same the other way,
If the 30m ORH is greater than the 15m ORH, 80.5% (7/36) the RTH high is higher than the 30m ORH. Do not fade continuation.
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