X : Have you seen this cloud survey ...
Me : Hmmm. No separation of populations. Not interested.
X : Sorry?
Me : Ok, take a map ...
... the evolution axis comes from this curve ...
... that curve is made of multiple diffusion curves of ever improving (fit) instances of a thing, each with its own chasm ...
... which is why in the evolution of something there are "many" chasms to cross ...
... take a moment in time, the majority maybe on one diffusion curve (e.g. the latest instance of compute as a product i.e. servers) and the minority on another (i.e. compute as a utility i.e. cloud) - both share a common meaning of compute ...
... so if you take a map of say computing in 2006 ...
... roll it forward by applying common economic (climatic) patterns of evolution, componentisation and co-evolution ... then it was easy to see what actually then happened ...
.. the majority were focused on best architectural practice for compute as a product, the minority were focused on compute as a utility with DevOps ...
... roll it forward to 2015 then the same thing occurs around serverless with the majority focused around the runtime as a product (LAMP etc). FinOps wasn't a name then, just new practices were appearing ...
... then you can keep rolling it forward ... 2020 ...
... until say 2030 where all the lower order components start "disappearing" as they are abstracted away.
None of this is retrospective, this was all predicted with maps ... but that's not the point ... the point is where you should invest ...
... but look closely at the map. The majority today will tell you to invest in exactly the wrong places ... go do DevOps, go do IaaS ... great for 2010, terrible idea for 2021. You should be focused on serverless.
Me : So, when it comes to your cloud survey ... Simpson's paradox. If if doesn't seperate out the populations (and there are distinct populations in the DevOps world, it's not homogenous) then you're probably aggregating to exactly the wrong advice.
Me : There are some companies out there that are on the ball i.e. take a look at the work that @Liberty_IT is doing. But all these go IaaS, do DevOps, build hybrid claims from "aggregated" surveys are selling you the wrong path.
X : What do you mean by common meaning?
Me : Many of the components have a common meaning i.e.
Remember the labels on the axis at the bottom are just labels for the different stages of evolution (I to IV). We use different labels for different forms of capital ...
Hence DevOps is currently good (heading towards best) architectural practice for compute as a utility nee cloud. There are, and remain, different best architectural practices for compute as a product nee servers.
So, for example we have a whole bunch of emerging coding practices nee FinOps being built on the runtime as a utility nee serverless. These are different from coding practices (best) for the runtime as product ... take security as an example.
Anyway, this is all old hat ... as I said, this is not a retrospective, this was all said before and during the relevant events. The point I want to emphasise is if you take the aggregated majority view with these distinct populations then you will end up on the wrong path.

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More from @swardley

9 Dec
X : Did you hear AWS was down?
Me : Didn't notice, been busy with other things. Was it a region?
X : US-East-1 had problems.
Me : Ok. Last long?
X : A couple of hours?
Me : And I assume we discovered that there are companies out there still not building across multiple regions?
X : I don't know.
Me : Probably. This was good practice almost a decade ago. It wouldn't surprise me.
X : Delta had problems.
Me : Delta Air Lines? Like the outage in their own data centres about five years ago which grounded flights for three days?
X : I didn't know that.
Me : Data centre outages which lasted days if not weeks used to happen quite often, especially in the old days of home grown data centres. A region of AWS being down for a couple of hours is a pain but ... well, multi-region was good practice long ago. When did the outage happen?
Read 11 tweets
8 Dec
X : Any thoughts on climate change?
Me : It's not a good idea?
X : How to fix it?
Me : The people who can change it, profit from it and the people who can't change it have other more basic concerns to worry about.
X : So?
Me : I suspect we will just blame the poor?
X : That's not very helpful.
Me : If you want to fix something, you first have to be honest enough to admit what causes it.
X : Fossil fuel?
Me : Partially. The larger issue is transactions and our attempt to fix the problem with more transactions.
X : Are you saying the market can't be sustainable?
Me : The market is based upon transactions which are based upon property which is based upon exclusion. You can't exclude people from the environment. The market will never be sustainable, it's why you need to govern the market.
Read 5 tweets
8 Dec
X : Thoughts on the metaverse?
Me : Depends upon what you mean. I'm all in favour of remote collaboration, co-operation and distribution of power but I'm not in favour of plugging myself into the matrix with Zuckerberg as the architect. I have met Mark. No thanks.
X : You don't think it will be a success?
Me : Depends. Not in the East but in the West, it'll be a huge success. People are more than happy to sell their future and the future of their children for a few baubles. We're suckers for this ...
... I can imagine those future conversations.

Daughter, we may all be enslaved in the metaverse, there is no life beyond it but through a lifetime of work, I now bequeath you (pursuant to the rules of inheritance, section 5.01) the hammer of majikthise. Go change the meta world.
Read 10 tweets
8 Dec
Excellent reporting by @BBCRosAtkins and @BBCNews. However, given the lack of integrity shown by this Gov, I can only assume that the "noise" over the party is misdirection away from something else ->
or alternatively the work of critical theorists trying to destabilise the Gov by demonstrating its behaviour doesn't hold to our values in order to present a new way -
or alternatively, it was a party by a bunch of people who just weren't thinking.

or alternatively ....

Welcome to the magic of Kayfabe where you don't know which way is right or left or up or ... anything.

Read 4 tweets
6 Dec
X : You're often quite harsh on Google.
Me : What?!? Where did that come from. I like Google but they've got tough challenges ahead. Friends don't just go "you're doing fine" when you're not.
X : What tough challenges?
Me : Ok ...
1. The rise of serverless and FinOps, especially when we get things like carbon reporting / energy use per function etc. Google's down the Kubernetes path and AWS is running away with it.
2. The shift of networks into space and the application of Moore's law ...
... once networks get up there, compute and storage will eventually follow. AWS (GroundStation et al), SpaceX etc are all over this.
3. The growth of competitors from China (Alibaba, Baidu). Don't underestimate the impact to the cultural psyche of Silicon Valley as ...
Read 12 tweets
5 Dec
X : Thoughts on Re:Invent?
Me : Wasn't there. Keynotes I listened to were encouraging. I particularly liked the focus on sustainability and serverless. Some interesting new services. Seemed like a solid event that reinforced AWS leadership in the new world.
My favourite keynote was @Werner - ... but there was lots of good stuff.
@Werner I particular like the work @NIDeveloper and the team at @Liberty_IT have been doing - - this is all good stuff that I came across through @davidand393 and @MarkMcCann
Read 11 tweets

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