People may be concerned by 1% hospitalisation rate for Omicron seen so far in Denmark but we shouldn't assume same will happen here.
We have a higher proportion of population boosted and a lower proportion who are immunonaive - i.e. no prior natural infection or vaccination
1/4

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
The Danish data is based on a small no. of admissions (37) & it's not yet clear what proportion are due to Covid or incidental. We will have our own UK hospital data within days which is more relevant for informing policy here.
2/3
However we shouldn't be complacent either as it's also now clear that Omicron is increasing rapidly here and it doesn't just cause a common cold.
We know the best way to protect ourselves & reduce pressure on the NHS this winter is the booster but we should also continue to
3/4
follow basic public health guidance which reduces all infections (inc. flu, norovirus, etc.) i.e. washing hands, wearing mask properly, making sure rooms are well ventilated & taking lateral flow tests b4 attending large indoor events or meeting those who are at highest risk.
4/4

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Dr Raghib Ali MD(Epi) MPH MSc(Epi) MA DLSHTM FRCP

Dr Raghib Ali MD(Epi) MPH MSc(Epi) MA DLSHTM FRCP Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @drraghibali

12 Dec
Back to the Delta wave & an update on what's happened in W. Europe since Oct. when many said that if we had kept restrictions like them, we would have had much better outcomes - not appreciating that our strategy was to prevent Winter peaks & reduce overall deaths/admissions.
1/4 ImageImageImage
Part 1 of that strategy is working & based on current trends it's likely UK will have one of the lower total deaths/admissions too.
So I hope those who criticised July 19th decision will now see that the restrictions were postponing deaths/admissions, not preventing them.
2/4
And postponing them to Winter when health systems are busier with greater knock-on effects for non-Covid patients as well.
And there were lots of health benefits - mental, physical & from reduced unemployment - from lifting restrictions earlier which are too often forgotten.
3/4
Read 4 tweets
12 Dec
Good to discuss current Covid situation with @jennykleeman @TimesRadio this morning.
Main points:
1. Many people are understandably worried about Oimicron and are feeling like we are back to square one & in same position as we were this time last year but we really aren’t.
1/
This time last year, almost none of us had had vaccines, whereas this year over 95% of adults have some degree of immunity mainly through vaccination and also natural infection - and over 80% in the highest risk groups have also had their booster/3rd doses
2/
So the vast majority of those in high-risk groups – those who end up in hospital or die from Covid - are much better protected than they were last year - including against Omicron - and don’t need to be living in fear.
3/
Read 13 tweets
17 Nov
Oct 22: A common view
"We need to adopt plan B, on masks and vaccine certification – Europe has shown it works
"Germany is managing to control its Covid epidemic and bring down the numbers of cases & deaths."
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Oct 23: I explained why this was flawed &
1/4
why our high rates shouldn't be assumed to be due to our lack of Plan B measures but because:

"other countries are at different stages of their third waves & their immunity will wane later than in the UK because their vaccine programs started later."

telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/2…
2/4
Some people were so upset that I was challenging 'their consensus' they reported me to the GMC & my employers!
My point here is not to say that I was right & they were wrong (mistakes are inevitable when evidence is uncertain) & I'm not asking for an apology but I hope that
3/4
Read 5 tweets
15 Nov
This is despite mask mandates & vaccine passports - as was predictable (& predicted) based on timing of delta wave & waning immunity.

But why are rates rising faster in Ireland (& eg. Austria, Germany & Belgium) than e.g. UK, France, Spain & Italy?

1/4
thetimes.co.uk/article/irelan…
It's not clearly linked to levels of vaccination (or restrictions) but the pattern is more consistent with the total levels of population immunity (from combined vaccination and natural infection) i.e. rates are going up faster in countries which had less infections before
2/4 ImageImage
the vaccine program was complete & so they have higher numbers of (esp. younger) people who are susceptible.
It's difficult to show this definitively as there aren't serology surveys in most countries, and there are differences in testing & the way Covid deaths are recorded

3/4
Read 4 tweets
12 Nov
Important paper on deaths in children & young people (CYP) in 1st year of pandemic. Reassuring results for Covid:
- of 12 million CYP in England, 3105 died
- of these, 25 (<1%) were due to Covid
- 99.995% of CYP with positive test survived
However..
1/6
nature.com/articles/s4159…
..as Dr Camilla Kingdon, the president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, said:

Meanwhile, successive lockdowns and social distancing caused far greater consequences “through lost education, mental health, and other collateral damage”,

2/6
"But what we would constantly try to point out – and which some of this data shows – is actually, these are wider issues that are no less detrimental to children and may have a more long lasting impact actually, then the virus itself,”

3/6
Read 7 tweets
9 Nov
A brief thread summarising our current COVID situation and what we can expect going forward - and why - although Covid is by no means over - we should be cautiously optimistic about the coming months:

1/9
First, although it’s easy to forget this given some of the commentary, the situation is so much better now than this time last year when hospital admissions & deaths were much higher and doubling every 2-3 weeks - and we were in lockdown - with all its harms.

2/9
Admissions are now about half & deaths about a third of what they were then and both are falling.
And we have no restrictions; society and the economy are open and unemployment is falling.
So we have less direct & indirect health harm from Covid and also from restrictions.

3/9
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(