2/ The std. mortality (blue) is continuously improving, although stagnating in NL as compared with top references Sweden and Norway.
Std. mortality depends on many health parameters like lifestyle and culture. Improving it is a slow process and won't stop red going up at ~1%.
3/ Both the red and blue curves are important.
Blue: monitors health. Here NL is doing fine.
Red: determines infrastructure load. It's the result of demographics and something that doesn't come unannounced. Here NL will be under pressure, for decades to come.
4/ NL could make efforts to push their std. mortality (blue) further down. But it's already very low on a worldwide benchmark.
Obviously the very best (SWE and NO) show that one could squeeze a little more out. But that is not going to stop the red curve going up.
5/ Here is the current (week 1-44) ranking (ESP2013).
All of the flagged countries are on a very low baseline already.
The differences are probably more lifestyle (food, alcohol, culture, smoking,...) than health care quality related to my view.
Is France winning this? 🇫🇷🥳🏆
6/ Animated yearly mortality 2015-2020
Left: crude mortality
Mid: age standardized (ESP2013)
Right: obesity map
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Note that we have one month different season definitions. Small detail. I used 1st September as it seems to be the historical death minimum over years and countries.
3/ Now let's play. More countries.
And here we start to see interesting things like the disastrous performance of AUT, CH, FR on 20/21 season. Surprised me
We learn: locking down in 19/20 season makes 20/21 explode.
1/ "Age adjusted all cause mortality trends 2000-2021 in Europe"
This was quite some work, so I hope you appreciate the article. I don't think that this kind of analysis using 5 year age bin granularity over 20 year trends has been done elsewhere.
2/ The age adjustement was done on 5 year age bins.
Some groups @CebmOxfordcebm.net/covid-19/exces… report age adjusted mortality for 2020. But the method is inaccurate as too wide age bins are used.
3/ For teaching purpose, we also applied the WHO2015-2025 standard population in some graphs to demonstrate the problem if applying this to an old population.
1/ I spotted one little (manipulative?) move by @OurWorldInData using wayback machine. In July 2021 they change the colour code of the life expectancy world map.
1/ Europe infant mortality trend. Let's have a look how NL compares with other peers.
Not so good.
Note that this is dominated by the 0-1 year group. But unfortunately, the population is only available by 0-5 years. So by averaging death_Y_LT5 / pop_LT5 we dilute a bit.
2/ The problem is that the vaccination will be diluted over many weeks.
I assumed that e.g. 10% of the population in an age group will vaccinate per week. Then this gives the expected weekly vaxx death background (red for 1:10k vaxx CFR-->1:100k, and blue 1:50k CFR-->1:500k).
3/ So we could maybe see it for the below 30y. But here, also the vaxx CFR is rather >>1:100k. So difficult. Maybe in cases when a lot of people vaccinated in the same week.
That's what @OS51388957 is hunting. He knows what he is doing. 😎🤙💪