IMF chief @KGeorgieva says UK economy proved to be more resilient than expected after a difficult year with the pandemic and post Brexit adjustments… but inflation pressures will linger and “considerable” risks and uncertainties ahead
UK “has the fiscal space” should it be necessary to do more to support vulnerable people and business due to Omicron, IMF MD Georgieva says, and she “has no doubt” that Government will do so … says full lockdowns no longer needed, so nor would full lockdown supports
IMF MD Georgieva asked re impact of Brexit/ new trade deal on UK economy: “We have seen an impact on trade, trade with EU has dropped significantly, and we’d expect more impact ahead” as inward checks introduced next year…
IMF’s Georgieva says the overall full economic impact of Brexit process is “difficult to separate” from pandemic effects - for example migration effects. But energy price impact and microprocessors aren’t UK specific and would not assign meaningful role to Brexit
Not wildly helpful for the Bank of England to have IMF express concern about “inaction bias” at the Bank over inflationary pressures, two days before its decision…

imf.org/en/News/Articl…

interesting area, other critiques centring on inherent inertia of committee structure…
“What has been proven about Omicron is that it has been proven to be highly transmissible, with evidence it might not lead to a high health impact and more hospitalisations, but this is not yet clear” IMF chief told me, acknowledging variant econ impact difficult to quantify.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Faisal Islam

Faisal Islam Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @faisalislam

15 Dec
Headline rate of inflation for UK soars to 5.1% in November up from 4.2% the month before, highest rate for over a decade. It’s over two and. Half times above the Bank of England’s target of 2%.

Driven by record petrol prices, used cars, clothes and food Image
13 year high on the ONS’ preferred CPIH measure which includes some account of prices for owner occupied housing..
Used car prices - pandemic effect from microprocessor shortages reducing supply of new cars, deflecting demand to used cars, at the same time facing a pool of forces saving from buyers….

This should turnaround at some point, when fields full of chip less cars are chipped Image
Read 7 tweets
14 Dec
Trade minister tours US states, amid little to no progress on US-UK trade deal, & UK-US steel tariffs dispute unsettled even after US-EU deal, implores US to “awaken” a “paradigm shift” in US response to UK leaving orbit of EU “to be closer to you [US]”..

gov.uk/government/spe…
UK Govt to US:

“[Brexit is] major geo-political event and it calls for an US response that recognises this moment and the opportunity..
We have made ourselves a player on the global chessboard..
Let future generations of Americans not say.. you failed to grasp that opportunity”
Speech underlines a rather important strategic paradox - that part of the rationale behind pursuing a clean/ hard break Brexit from the EU was to pursue closer relationship with US… but at best not a priority for US, at worst, contributing to currently worse outcome on steel…
Read 7 tweets
12 Dec
So basically if safety car comes out then whatever lead you have instantly evaporates? Ie no way verstappen catching Hamilton 12 secs in front before that… not sure I buy the michael Thomas 1989 analogy - more like being 2-0 down and then awarded two goals with one minute left…
This appears a better analogy… was Wolff right that Lewis would definitely have lost his place if he had also pitted?
Ah! Because verstappen makes pit decision knowing Lewis has already chosen too with nothing to lose - and following lap Lewis can’t do that because understandably fears race will end under the safety car - is that right?

Sorry F1 heads - seemed a bit random to this outsider
Read 7 tweets
10 Dec
👀 someone in UK Govt has been briefing the European media on record that the UK Govt has dropped its ECJ red line …. Rather significant change in tone. Deal in offing?
Here too… Someone wants a deal - world away from Article 16 if ECJ asks being parked quietly,..
European diplomats were saying earlier this month there was nothing to discuss as regards ECJ in any event…
Read 10 tweets
8 Dec
new German Chancellor @OlafScholz re economics/ Brexit/ furlough/€/ debt brakes, who I think I did last lengthy English language interview with, when in London for summer G7 tax deal. was quite emotional about & told me would “really change the world” 🧵
bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
on Brexit Scholz told me then - “I'm happy we got a deal in the end on relations between the European Union and the UK, and I hope that everyone will follow the deal and that everything will be exactly what was written down, if this is the case we will have good trade relations”
On the Kurzarbeit (precursor to furlough) extended during pandemic and developed after the financial scheme, Scholz said: “We supported the health of our people with the money we spent, but also the economy, and many jobs…”
Read 4 tweets
7 Dec
NEW: Treasury submission to public sector pay review bodies warns elevated inflation rates are temporary, unless “people come to expect high inflation to continue, for example if workers demand larger wage increases to maintain their purchasing power”…
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
HMT specifically warns that “public sector pay increases” could “exacerbate temporary inflation pressure” by contributing to higher wage demands across the economy… and of a “trade off” between higher pay rises and recruiting more staff/ public services investment ImageImage
In particular it is critical of the idea that public sector pay rises should account for the coming squeeze from the rise in National Insurance, saying this would use up funding for NHS/ social care and that doesn’t happen in the private sector Image
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(