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14 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
1/ "A profit pool shows the distribution of an industry’s value creation at a point in time. The horizontal axis measures size, typically invested capital or sales as a percentage of the industry, and the vertical axis measures economic profitability." research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?langua…
2/ "The value chain is “the sequence of activities your company performs to design, produce, sell, deliver, and support its products."
3/ "The objective: to assess each activity’s specific contribution to the company’s ability to capture and sustain competitive advantage." Mauboussin
4/ Tough business.news.sky.com/story/amp/bran…

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More from @trengriffin

Tren Griffin Profile picture
11 Dec
I skied at Crystal Mountain yesterday.
Silver Basin is a backcountry area.

"Everyone in the group was wearing an avalanche beacon, which helped ski patrol find and rescue them."

A witness was able to call for help.

100 mph winds at the summit today.

kiro7.com/news/local/1-d… Image
Silver King,where the deadly avalanche took place, is here. I skied only in bounds yesterday. But I did ski the edges of what was open to get a little fresh Pow. Only two chairs were even open.

fatmap.com/routeid/11682/…
To skin up and ski down from 6300 feet (Silver Basin) you must go to the Guest Services ticket booth to sign ski area waivers and obtain Crystal's "Backcounty Card." You leave the resort boundary a few feet from the top of Quicksilver where this photo of me was taken yesterday. Image
Read 5 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
11 Dec
1/ Costco: "About 79% of our import containers are late by an average of 51 days. Chip shortage is still impacting many items, some more than others. For Q1 '22 we estimate that overall year-over-year price inflation to be in the 4.5% to 5% range."

seekingalpha.com/amp/article/44… Image
2/ Costco's Richard Galanti: "I can't think of any company that has the buying power per item that we do, because we do roughly $200 billion in sales with 4,000 ish items versus anybody else that's doing it with hundreds of thousands of items, or 50,000 items." Image
3/ My blog post on Costco co-founder Jim Sinegal is here: 25iq.com/2014/05/24/a-d… I met with the other co-founder Jeff Brotman and thought about writing a post on him too. Bill Gates Sr was a board member and Charlie Munger is still at 97. Munger now owns ~$ 100 million of COST.
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
4 Dec
1/ What SPAC is involved in this?
2/ For people playing the at home version of this game, the SPAC brought only $16 million cash from trust to the company, while the company paid $35 million in transaction fees (-19 million net)! The the SPAC sponsor received 4.7% of the equity in the company as a welcome gift!
3/ Final clue: About 94% of the $287.5 million the SPAC raised was withdrawn by investors.

The company generated revenue of $90.1 million in the third quarter but it lost $3.6 million in that quarter.
Read 5 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
3 Dec
1/ Charlie Munger today: "The dotcom boom was crazier on the valuations even than we have now but overall, I consider this era even crazier than the dotcom era. You have to pay a great deal for good companies and that reduces your future returns,” afr.com/markets/equity…
2/ To be clear, there are lots of things I disagree with Charlie Munger about, including certain issues related to China.

"We agree on Costco tho: “Amazon may have more to fear from Costco in terms of retailing than the reverse."
"You want companies that have high earnings on capital and have a durable competitive advantage. If they’ve got good management instead of a bad, that’s a big plus too. But the great companies of the world have been discovered. They’re very expensive to buy.” Munger
Read 5 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
3 Dec
1/ "Since mid-November, a new queuing system has encouraged ships to wait outside of a specially designated Safety and Air Quality Area (SAQA).

The overall queue, including container ships both inside and outside the SAQA, has not diminished" lgi.laufer.com/news/ships-in-… Image
2/ "On Wednesday, the futures price for framing lumber hit $870 per thousand board feet. That's up 124% since August." finance.yahoo.com/news/supply-ch… Image
2/ "Week to Nov. 28, 2021 The Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) for both the FEWB and TPEB routes are at or close to their highest since our calculations started in March 2019." flexport.com/indicators/oce… Image
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
27 Nov
1/ "About three-quarters of global semiconductor production capacity sits in just four Asian locations: Taiwan, South Korea, China and Japan, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association. The U.S. represents just 13%." wsj.com/articles/more-… Image
2/ Exponential growth bias (EGB) is the tendency of people to perceive a growth process as linear when, in fact, it is exponential."

Demand for chips is experiencing a nonlinear increase while the world is trying to catch up. It's like trying to catch up with a moving train.
3/ As you know, "tiny balls of tin, about 30 microns wide are blasted twice by the world's most powerful carbon dioxide lasers. The first blast "gets it ready" and the second, stronger pulse turns it into a plasma which is 400,000 degrees Fahrenheit." cnbc.com/amp/2021/11/24…
Read 5 tweets

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