Thread by @bansisharma

1. The Democrats’ Hispanic Voter Problem

And Republicans' opportunity, if they keep their heads and address the electorate respectfully and constructively.

Turning to the nature and size of recent Hispanic shifts against the Democrats—it’s not as bad as you think, it’s worse.

2. In the most recent WSJ poll, in a 2024 hypothetical rematch between Trump and Biden, Hispanic voters favored Biden by only a single point. This is among a voter group that favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by 26 points.

3. In the same poll, Biden’s net approval rating among Hispanics was -12 (42% approval/54% disapproval). Hispanics in the poll favor Republicans in Congress over Democrats on containing inflation and securing the border.

4. A recent 538 analysis of aggregated poll data shows that, while Biden has lost support among all racial groups in the last 9 months, the decline has been sharpest among Hispanics.
fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden…

5. In Texas, perhaps the Democrats’ most prized target, Biden’s ratings among Hispanics have been dreadful. A September Dallas Morning News poll had Biden's approval rating among Texas Hispanics at an anemic 35% vs. 54% disapproval--19 points underwater.

6. In the hotly-contested 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election, according to the AP-NORC VoteCast survey (more reliable than the highly flawed exit polls), Democrat Terry McAuliffe actually lost the Latino vote and also lost ground among black and “other race’ voters.

7. In the 2020 election, Hispanics gave Trump substantially more support than they did in 2016. According to Catalist, in 2020 Latinos had an amazingly large 16 point margin shift toward Trump.

8. Among Latinos, Cubans did have the largest shifts toward Trump (26 points), but those of Mexican origin also had a 12 point shift and even Puerto Ricans moved toward Trump by 18 points.

9. Latino shifts toward Trump were widely dispersed geographically. Hispanic shifts toward Trump were not confined to FL (28 points) and TX (18 points) but also included states like WI (20 points), NV (18 points), PA (12 points), AZ (10 points) and GA (8 points).

10. Pew validated voter data indicate particularly poor performance for Biden among working class (noncollege) Hispanics, with these voters giving Trump a remarkable 41% of their vote in 2020. You can even see the pro-Trump Hispanic shift in New York City.

Matthew Thomas says:

11. It's hard to avoid the conclusion that Democrats have seriously erred by lumping Hispanics in with “people of color” and assuming they embraced the activism around racial issues that dominated so much of the political scene in the summer of 2020. This was a flawed assumption.

12. The reality of the Hispanic population is that they are, broadly speaking, an overwhelmingly working class, economically progressive, socially moderate constituency that cares above all, about jobs, the economy and health care.

13. Consistent with this, Latino voters evinced little sympathy with the more radical demands that came to be associated with the Black Lives Matter movement. Hispanics oppose defunding the police.

14. Hispanics are also patriotic. By well over 3:1, Hispanics in the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group (VSG) panel survey said they would rather be a citizen of the U.S. than any other country in the world and by 35 points said they were proud of the way American democracy works.

15. Clearly, this constituency does not harbor particularly radical views on the nature of American society and its supposed intrinsic racism and white supremacy. They are instead a patriotic, upwardly mobile, working class group with quite practical and down to earth concerns.

16. The above thread is based on an excellent analysis by Ruy Teixeira in the enclosed article.

The End
theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/the-democrat…

In a grand gesture of brotherly love, Republicans should advocate for an urgent change to the asylum laws to make them very lenient for neighboring countries. Bring in as many hard working, God fearing, America loving Hispanics as want to come here, and quickly. Let freedom ring!