Chefo Profile picture
14 Dec, 10 tweets, 8 min read
#uranium #SPUT $CCJ $SRUUF

1.) I see that a lot of new(er) investors in uranium don't have a clear picture of who the main players in this space are... and in times of massive downside vol, it usually is better to be aware than not...
#uranium #SPUT $CCJ $SRUUF

2.) Apart from the usual suspects that are easy to find like juniors, producers, etc. and #Sprott, there are some truly huge entities that play in this space -- certain banks and comm. traders that had a really nice thing going for some near 5-6 years
#uranium #SPUT $CCJ $SRUUF

3.) I've looked into the space for the last 4 years, mostly trading in and out--why? In commodities, the side with the most $ usually wins. Not the people with the best thesis, not the most knowledgeable. It doesn't mean you can't make good $ long
#uranium #SPUT $CCJ $SRUUF

3.) The most profitable trade in this sector (straight from a former trader at a huge Euro outfit looking for $), "just printing money" to paraphrase, was the carry trade or arbing the mid-term (2-3 years out price) and the spot price.
#uranium #SPUT $CCJ $SRUUF

4.) All the big boys were in some form synthetic short U, most of it hedged with off-takes, some of it naked. When I say big, I mean that-$CCJ and KAP are the 800-pound gorillas in mining, but they're lapdogs compared to the trading houses and banks
#uranium #SPUT $CCJ $SRUUF
5.) The large trading houses don't like losing $ and they can whip that thing any which way they want. What's more important is that the one thing they will absolutely, never allow to do is default on a delivery. #SPUT was a surprise in that regard
#uranium #SPUT $CCJ $SRUUF
6.) When retail and small inst. $ flooded into #SPUT, and U was ripping, the short interest curiously rose from 0.5M shares to ~6M shares and every time the premium to spot rose, it wasn't just #SPUT selling shares--large short sellers sold as well
#uranium #SPUT $CCJ $SRUUF
7.) It would not surprise me if it eventually came out that the large traders piled in short to nail #SPUT--not because of the price per say, they'll figure out how to make $ regardless, but because #SPUT was vacuuming too many U pounds lying around
#uranium #SPUT $CCJ $SRUUF
8.) Without free, mobile pounds lying around, their risk managers would not let them enter into further carry trades. They'll pivot; smaller players probably already have--I can bet they've been front-running #SPUT the whole way
#uranium #SPUT $CCJ $SRUUF
9.) But it's very likely that pounds meant for #SPUT are now hitting the market, with KAP and $CCJ probably being the bid. But, these two have dedicated trading arms and don't chase up, they look to buy cheap, so they're not price insensitive like #SPUT

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