I really thought that perhaps omicron would wake people up to the fact that 'living with' this virus isn't really going to be possible - unless we accept mass death & suffering, and develop an understanding that we need globally coordinated progressive suppression. 🧵
But for many people including scientists omicron has actually strengthened the idea of 'living with it' and dropping all mitigations. This is an extremely privileged take, & completely ignores that the impacts of such policy would be devastating on the most disadvantaged.
So unless you're willing to spell out the consequences of your plans clearly and honestly (mass death, especially among the poor, disabled, vulnerable, elderly, ethnic minorities), and own that this is what you're advocating for society to accept, please don't recommend it.
And those who're suggesting this is a pipe dream - it is -in a self-fulfilling way because of the fatalism of those who never even tried. So many countries did, and protected lives, and livelihoods. Was it hard, and did they have to make sacrifices? Yes. But was it worth it? Yes!

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More from @dgurdasani1

16 Dec
It's important to understand that this wave is going to be different from previous waves in many ways. Every wave so far in the UK, the govt has acted late- when the NHS was already quite overwhelmed. This time doing this will be far far more dangerous- here's why. Thread
We know that there is a lag between cases & hospitalisations rising. This means that even if we act to curb spread today, hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise for 2-3 weeks because those who will be hospitalised and die in the next 2-3 wks have already been infected.
So every time the govt has taken action, with the NHS severely strained, the situation has continued to get worse for 2-3 weeks in terms of hospitalisations and deaths before getting better. Which means strain on the NHS continues to rise for a period even after we act.
Read 11 tweets
14 Dec
I've seen people use 'uncertainty' around aspects of evidence to justify inaction. Uncertainty in evidence *does not* mean uncertainty in policy. As I've said, while there's a lot of uncertainty around the exact impact of omicron, there's little doubt that it'll be severe🧵
Same with long COVID. The greater the uncertainty, the more the need for caution, and the more the need for early action. Even the best-case scenarios look very concerning with omicron. So please don't use uncertainty as an excuse for inaction. Inaction will kill in a pandemic.
Best to act early, quickly & scale back if the response was an overreaction. I can safely say that I've not seen any overreaction in UK pandemic policy though, so this is extremely unlikely. Under reaction which is far more damaging has been the mainstay, and continues to be.
Read 4 tweets
14 Dec
There's absolutely no doubt that deaths have risen in Tshwane with lags despite all the 'mild' rhetoric & are likely to increase further as impact is felt from the rapid growth several wks ago. Data from Denmark suggests equivalent or higher hospitalisation rates to delta.🧵
And remember that for SA the 3rd & 4th wave were very different in many respects- a large section of the population was exposed in the 3rd wave, and it's estimated that 70-80% of people may have had previous exposure by the end - so v. different levels of pop immunity.
Given the relatively high levels of vaccination the UK had going into the delta wave, the level of background immunity will be different between the 3rd & current wave, but perhaps not as different as in SA - so we may not see the same difference in severity.
Read 5 tweets
13 Dec
I do think this is a possibility, although hard to know at this point. The lower proportion of omicron in children in the recent Denmark report may point to this, but it's early days so very hard to say. 🧵
Essentially, as explained very well here, delta and omicron could have relative advantages in different settings- delta may be more transmissible, but less escape, so spreads in unvax/unexposed while omicron spreads in vax/exposed groups.
The bit we don't know is relative transmissibility (R0) in a susceptible population. We know omicron has a considerable advantage from escape, but whether it's more transmissible than delta in a fully susceptible population is still unclear.
Read 5 tweets
13 Dec
This is ridiculous- these purifiers cost 6x higher than regular ones that are far more extensively used across the globe. It's completely scandalous. For the amount being paid to Dyson (!), they could be making 6x the number of classrooms safer than they are. Why aren't they?
Here's as device with literally the same CADR as the Dyson one, at a tenth of the cost!!
amazon.co.uk/dp/B09HYV7W6B/…
What really angers me is that enriching their friends and cronies is so important to them, that they're very happy to throw the health and lives of children and families out the window, when they could easily be protecting them with standard products everyone is using.
Read 4 tweets
13 Dec
There is no evidence (despite all the rhetoric in the media) that omicron is intrinsically 'milder' than previous variants. Hospitalisation rate in Denmark comparable with delta at equivalent levels of vaccination. And the rapid spread makes it *much* worse.
Any differences in severity of admissions between 3rd and 4th wave in SA may be attributable to some level of protection from vaccination or previous infection - that *does not* in any way mean that the impact of the variant in places it is spreading will not be severe.
The impact will largely be governed by rate of spread rather than severity - and even if it was half or even quarter as severe as delta (no evidence of this), the impact because of rapidity of spread will be massive in most places.
Read 5 tweets

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