Week 49 test positivity rates have been published by the NICD.
Gauteng grew only 2.3% from week 48 (36.4%) to week 49 (38.7%). This slowdown removes the posibility of an apparent slowdown in case growth due to testing capacity constraints.
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From nothing to a peak in only 3 weeks, #Omicron clearly has a high transmissibility and short incubation period.
How can trust in healthcare institutions be restored?
One characteristic of healthcare institutions globally has been the strategy of setting behavioural goals, and then crafting the narrative around this.
There has been little effort to increase understanding.
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For example, if the goal is to vaccinate everyone, statements that hamper this goal, even if the statements are true, are actively discouraged.
People pick up on this, it undermines trust and hampers a better understanding.
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"Don’t try selling the herd immunity concept- it’s not going to materialise and paradoxically undermines vaccine confidence." SA Vaccinologist.
Talk about natural immunity is discouraged, not because it does not exist, but because it might undermine vaccine confidence.
The 7 day avg cases increased above the previous highest level of 9,645 on 9 December to 10,131 today.
This is most likely the result of a reporting delay (16,716 today).
The peak is now likely to end up in the window specified.
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I work with cases by reported date. In this table by Louis Rossouw, cases are given by specimen date, but we will have to wait a day or two to see how the 16k cases from today are allocated.
Either way, growth if any is extremely slow currently.
Gauteng cases have peaked already, and there is only a slight uptick in C-19 deaths. Total confirmed C-19 deaths from #Omicron is estimated at 640 for this wave.
Gauteng had 15,400 confirmed C-19 deaths from Delta.