1 of 4:

#Omicron update:

Week 49 test positivity rates have been published by the NICD.

Gauteng grew only 2.3% from week 48 (36.4%) to week 49 (38.7%). This slowdown removes the posibility of an apparent slowdown in case growth due to testing capacity constraints.
2 of 4:

From nothing to a peak in only 3 weeks, #Omicron clearly has a high transmissibility and short incubation period.

The NICD testing report can be found here:
nicd.ac.za/wp-content/upl…
3 of 4:

Fortunately, the CFR is 6x lower, so weekly confirmed C-19 deaths are not expected to exceed ~630 per week (it is currently at 210 per week).

All C-19 deaths will be 2.3x higher since SA mainly counts hospital C-19 deaths.
4 of 4:

If the #Omicron wave dissipates as fast as it spread, we can expect 25x lower deaths during this wave compared to Delta.

All the data continues to point to an extremely mild wave.

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More from @pieterstreicher

15 Dec
1/11

How can trust in healthcare institutions be restored?

One characteristic of healthcare institutions globally has been the strategy of setting behavioural goals, and then crafting the narrative around this.

There has been little effort to increase understanding.
2/11

For example, if the goal is to vaccinate everyone, statements that hamper this goal, even if the statements are true, are actively discouraged.

People pick up on this, it undermines trust and hampers a better understanding.
3/11

"Don’t try selling the herd immunity concept- it’s not going to materialise and paradoxically undermines vaccine confidence." SA Vaccinologist.

Talk about natural immunity is discouraged, not because it does not exist, but because it might undermine vaccine confidence.
Read 11 tweets
14 Dec
1 of 6:

#Omicron update:

Gauteng, South Africa is peaking with case levels similar to Delta, but with deaths expected to be 25 times lower.
2 of 6:

As disease severity increases, so does the gap with Delta increase.

Peak ventilated bed levels will most likely end 6x below Delta levels.

data sources:
NICD hospital reports
@lrossouw (cases by specimen date)
3 of 6:

The CFR of Delta was 3% up to late November and is probably still 3%.

The increase in deaths since early December, most likely from #Omicron is following the 0.5% CFR projection (orange) more closely.
Read 6 tweets
13 Dec
1 of 6:

#Omicron - Could this be the end of the pandemic?

For South Africa it might be.

Gauteng, South Africa is peaking with case levels similar to Delta, but with deaths expected to be 25 times lower.

(The 7 day average cases by specimen date were added - light blue.)
2 of 6:

Hospital beds could end up well below the 4,500 projected on 4 December already.

The Delta peak was 9,200.

data source: NICD
nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…
3 of 6:

ICU beds could end up well below the 570 projected on 4 December already.

The Delta peak was 1,433.

South Africa currently only has light restrictions:
businesstech.co.za/news/governmen…
Read 6 tweets
12 Dec
1 of 7:

Gauteng #Omicron update - 12 December.

The 7 day avg cases increased above the previous highest level of 9,645 on 9 December to 10,131 today.

This is most likely the result of a reporting delay (16,716 today).

The peak is now likely to end up in the window specified.
2 of 7:

I work with cases by reported date. In this table by Louis Rossouw, cases are given by specimen date, but we will have to wait a day or two to see how the 16k cases from today are allocated.

Either way, growth if any is extremely slow currently.

unsupervised.online/static/covid-1…
3 of 7:

The increases in hospital variables were negligible today, but this is most likely the typical weekend effect.

data source: NICD
nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…
Read 8 tweets
11 Dec
1 of 6:

#Omicron - Is this the end of the pandemic?

No restrictions will be needed to protect hospitals in any way in any country.

Gauteng, South Africa has peaked with case levels similar to Delta, but with deaths expected to be 25 times lower.
2 of 6:

Mild, milder, extremely mild.

As disease severity increases, the gap with Delta widens.

Keep in mind that SA is extremely vulnerable to C-19 with an average IFR of 0.5%, and 230,000 excess deaths attributable to the virus.

The IFR of #Omicron is estimated at 0.053%.
3 of 6:

Gauteng cases have peaked already, and there is only a slight uptick in C-19 deaths. Total confirmed C-19 deaths from #Omicron is estimated at 640 for this wave.

Gauteng had 15,400 confirmed C-19 deaths from Delta.

data source: NICD
nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…
Read 6 tweets
11 Dec
1 of 6:

10 December Gauteng #Omicron update:

There is a drop in the 7 day average case levels. This is 3 days before the peak range expected.

Gauteng is experiencing a mild wave with significantly lower deaths compared to Delta.
2 of 6:

The peak in hospital beds will lag case levels.

With an earlier peak in cases, an earlier peak in hospital numbers can also be expected.

It is now clear that hospital beds will not get close to Delta levels.

(data source: NICD)
3 of 6:

As we look at more severe outcomes, the difference is even larger.

Keep in mind that SA only has light restrictions.

Clearly no restrictions are needed to protect the hospitals in any way.

(data source: NICD)
Read 6 tweets

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