1 of 6:

10 December Gauteng #Omicron update:

There is a drop in the 7 day average case levels. This is 3 days before the peak range expected.

Gauteng is experiencing a mild wave with significantly lower deaths compared to Delta.
2 of 6:

The peak in hospital beds will lag case levels.

With an earlier peak in cases, an earlier peak in hospital numbers can also be expected.

It is now clear that hospital beds will not get close to Delta levels.

(data source: NICD)
3 of 6:

As we look at more severe outcomes, the difference is even larger.

Keep in mind that SA only has light restrictions.

Clearly no restrictions are needed to protect the hospitals in any way.

(data source: NICD)
4 of 6:

Ventilated beds are only a fraction of Delta levels.

Only 3-4% of hospital admissions end up on ventilators. This is significantly lower compared to all previous variants: Delta, Beta and the wild type.

(data source: NICD)
5 of 6:

Gauteng projections: 7 day average cases peaked 3 days earlier than expected.

ICU and ventilated beds are mostly tracking the projected line.
6 of 6:

Either immunity is working very well, or #Omicron is extremely mild. Either way the rest of the world has nothing to fear.

The only concern would be if SA has a type of immunity that the rest does not have. I will leave it to you to speculate if this is possible?

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More from @pieterstreicher

12 Dec
1 of 7:

Gauteng #Omicron update - 12 December.

The 7 day avg cases increased above the previous highest level of 9,645 on 9 December to 10,131 today.

This is most likely the result of a reporting delay (16,716 today).

The peak is now likely to end up in the window specified. Image
2 of 7:

I work with cases by reported date. In this table by Louis Rossouw, cases are given by specimen date, but we will have to wait a day or two to see how the 16k cases from today are allocated.

Either way, growth if any is extremely slow currently.

unsupervised.online/static/covid-1… Image
3 of 7:

The increases in hospital variables were negligible today, but this is most likely the typical weekend effect.

data source: NICD
nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i… Image
Read 7 tweets
11 Dec
1 of 6:

#Omicron - Is this the end of the pandemic?

No restrictions will be needed to protect hospitals in any way in any country.

Gauteng, South Africa has peaked with case levels similar to Delta, but with deaths expected to be 25 times lower.
2 of 6:

Mild, milder, extremely mild.

As disease severity increases, the gap with Delta widens.

Keep in mind that SA is extremely vulnerable to C-19 with an average IFR of 0.5%, and 230,000 excess deaths attributable to the virus.

The IFR of #Omicron is estimated at 0.053%.
3 of 6:

Gauteng cases have peaked already, and there is only a slight uptick in C-19 deaths. Total confirmed C-19 deaths from #Omicron is estimated at 640 for this wave.

Gauteng had 15,400 confirmed C-19 deaths from Delta.

data source: NICD
nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…
Read 6 tweets
10 Dec
1 of 10:

Should the rest of the world fear #Omicron?

South Africa is experiencing a very mild wave with #Omicron. The hospitals are easily coping even though case levels in Gauteng will exceed Delta levels. South Africa currently only has light restrictions.
2 of 10:

Despite light restrictions it is expected that only 15-25% of the country will be infected with #Omicron.

The South African context is unique. 70% of the population have had Covid-19 already. Only 50% of the adult population is fully vaccinated.
3 of 10:

Scenario 1: #Omicron escapes vaccine and natural immunity to a significant extent.

In this scenario, everyone in South Africa would have been vulnerable to Omicron, so the low deaths could then only be ascribed to a significantly lower virulence of the Omicron itself.
Read 10 tweets
9 Dec
1 of 6:

Gauteng #Omicron update:

Cases in Gauteng are likely to peak between 12 and 20 December.

The growthrate in 7 day average cases is slowing down consistently. It was 5% per day in the last day, down from 28% per day 12 days ago.
2 of 6:

The total number of patients in hospital is well below the Delta wave.

Since a peak in hospital numbers is expected in 11-21 days, this variable is not a concern anymore.

data source: NICD
nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…
3 of 6:

As we look at more severe outcomes, the numbers are even lower. ICU beds track well below the Delta trajectory.

No restrictions are needed to help hospitals in any way.
Read 6 tweets
8 Dec
1 of 6:

Gauteng #Omicron update - 8 December:

The load on hospitals is significantly lower compared to Delta, and with a peak imminent, hospitals will not be overloaded at all.

No restrictions are needed to help hospitals in any way.
2 of 6:

The total number of patients in hospital is well below the Delta wave.

Since a peak in hospital numbers is expected in 12-22 days, this variable is not a concern anymore.

data source: NICD
nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…
3 of 6:

The portion of hospital patients ending up in ICU is much lower (10%) compared to Delta (24%).

Considering that a significant portion of patients in hospital have not been infected before, or are not vaccinated, #Omicron must be significantly less virulent.
Read 6 tweets
8 Dec
1 of 4:

8 December Gauteng #Omicron short term projections:

Cases, hospitalisations and ICU beds are all running below my projections.

Ventilated beds are slightly above.
2 of 4:

The method is simple.

1. Determine the daily growth rate during the exponential phase for all variables.
(cases 30%, hosp 12%)

2. Estimate when cases will peak based on an Rt extrapolation. Alternatively, fit a Gompertz curve to the case trajectory.
(12 Dec)
3 of 4.

3. Apply a consistent drop in growth rate from the point when growth is not exponential anymore to the point when Rt=1.0. (Alt. - Gompertz fit)

4. Add a suitable lag period for the hospital variables. I used 6 days for hospital and another 5 days for ICU/vent beds.
Read 5 tweets

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