The 7 day avg cases increased above the previous highest level of 9,645 on 9 December to 10,131 today.
This is most likely the result of a reporting delay (16,716 today).
The peak is now likely to end up in the window specified.
2 of 7:
I work with cases by reported date. In this table by Louis Rossouw, cases are given by specimen date, but we will have to wait a day or two to see how the 16k cases from today are allocated.
Either way, growth if any is extremely slow currently.
Gauteng cases have peaked already, and there is only a slight uptick in C-19 deaths. Total confirmed C-19 deaths from #Omicron is estimated at 640 for this wave.
Gauteng had 15,400 confirmed C-19 deaths from Delta.
South Africa is experiencing a very mild wave with #Omicron. The hospitals are easily coping even though case levels in Gauteng will exceed Delta levels. South Africa currently only has light restrictions.
2 of 10:
Despite light restrictions it is expected that only 15-25% of the country will be infected with #Omicron.
The South African context is unique. 70% of the population have had Covid-19 already. Only 50% of the adult population is fully vaccinated.
3 of 10:
Scenario 1: #Omicron escapes vaccine and natural immunity to a significant extent.
In this scenario, everyone in South Africa would have been vulnerable to Omicron, so the low deaths could then only be ascribed to a significantly lower virulence of the Omicron itself.
The portion of hospital patients ending up in ICU is much lower (10%) compared to Delta (24%).
Considering that a significant portion of patients in hospital have not been infected before, or are not vaccinated, #Omicron must be significantly less virulent.