The BIG Week 14 Recap thread is HERE

1-2 observations for every team from Week 14

Actionable info for Week 15 onward

Let's begin as always with the Cardinals, and the news that Hopkins is most likely OUT for the rest of the season

How does this affect the other ARI WRs? ⬇️⬇️
Week 14 vs LAR

AJ Green - 37 routes, 10 tgt, 7-102-0 (159 air)
Kirk - 33 routes, 6 tgt, 3-86-0 (136 air)
Ertz - 36 routes, 7 tgt, 5-42-0 (33 air)
Rondale - 25 routes, 4 tgt, 3-5-0 (18 air)

Green/Kirk/Ertz all strong starts without Hopkins, Rondale someone to monitor for ⬇️⬇️
a role change with Hopkins OUT.

Hopkins ran 45 routes, 12 tgt, 5-54-0 (176 air) in Week 14, so definitely lots of potential work up for grabs.

Week 15 projected target shares
Kirk - 22%
Green - 20%
Ertz - 17%
Rondale - 14%

On to ATL ⬇️⬇️
Cordarrelle Patterson's role has morphed from receiving threat to rushing threat since Week 10

Weeks 1-9 avg: 9-35-0.3 rushing, 6 tgt, 5-57-0.6 receiving
Weeks 10-14 avg: 12-67-0.8 rushing, 4 tgt, 2-15-0 receiving

For fantasy, we want the receiving work, and this role change ⬇️
hurts CPatt's weekly ceiling.

Here's the Week 14 RB stats:

CPatt - 32 snaps, 16-58-1 rushing, 11 routes, 5 tgt, 2-1-0 receiving
Davis - 36 snaps, 11-44-0 rushing, 17 routes, 6 tgt, 5-42-0 receiving

More snaps AND routes for Mike Davis 😬

On to BAL ⬇️⬇️
Lamar goes down early in Week 14, and the backup QB Tyler Huntley (as is often the case) struggles on deeper passes, which hurt Marquise Brown

Also, that Rashod Bateman breakout game🤑

And like I mentioned last week, Devonta Freeman STILL a bell cow

BAL stats below ⬇️⬇️
Andrews - 43 routes, 11 tgt, 11-115-1 (6 aDOT)
Bateman - 36 routes, 8 tgt, 7-103-0 (8.9 aDOT)
Brown - 45 routes, 8 tgt, 5-41-0 (12.3 aDOT)

Huntley far more successful with the shorter passes vs CLE

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BUF⬇️⬇️
Emmanuel Sanders OUT for at least Week 15...

Good news for Gabe Davis, who I expect to see the biggest boost among BUF pass catchers in his absence

Week 14 BUF stats below ⬇️⬇️
Diggs - 51 routes, 13 tgt, 7-74 (151 air)
Beasley - 49 routes, 11 tgt, 9-64 (39 air)
Knox - 48 routes, 9 tgt, 7-60-1 (26 air)
Davis - 43 routes, 8 tgt, 5-43-1 (51 air)

Josh Allen only 277 air yards, so Diggs had 54.5% of them (!!)

If Allen can't go due to his foot sprain,
fire up some $4,700 Mitchell Trubisky in DFS 🔥🔥

On to CAR, where Robby Anderson had his best game of the year

Week 14 vs ATL

DJ Moore - 33 routes, 10 tgt, 6-84 (97 air)
Robby - 34 routes, 12 tgt, 7-84-1 (124 air)

RB room is a gross timeshare with Cam Newton vulturing ⬇️⬇️
Week 14

Chuba - 24 snaps, 10-33-1 rushing, 5 routes
Abdullah - 35 snaps, 4-16 rushing, 20 routes, 4 tgt, 2-17 receiving

Neither a strong start vs a ferocious BUF defense in Week 15

BUF DST a strong candidate for 15+ fantasy points vs CAR though 😉

On to CHI ⬇️⬇️
Justin Fields is my QB10 ROS, and I may have to bump him higher after Week 15

His past 3 full games were all top-10 QB finishes (QB5, QB10, QB10)

Also, David Montgomery is a bell cow with 3 great upcoming matchups where CHI shouldn't trail much, and can run that damn ball ⬇️⬇️
vs MIN, then @ SEA, then vs NYG (Weeks 15-17)

In Week 14, Monty once again DOMINATED the backfield

Montgomery - 49 snaps, 10-42 rushing, 19 routes, 7 tgt, 6-39 receiving
Damien - 6 snaps, 2-13 rushing, 3 routes, 1 tgt, 1-4 receiving
Herbert - 5 snaps, 1-3 rushing, 2 routes
⬇️⬇️
Been pounding the drum hard that it's a Big 2 in CIN, not a Big 3.

Week 14 backs this up

Chase - 38 routes, 8 tgt, 5-77-2 (120 air)
Higgins - 32 routes, 7 tgt, 5-114-0 (113 air)
Boyd - 36 routes, 5 tgt, 4-55-0 (40 air)

Also, I'm "assuming" the Mixon Week 14 usage was due to
him not practicing from illness all week

Mixon - 36 snaps, 18-58 rushing, 13 routes, 2 tgt, 2-10 receiving
Samaje - 28 snaps, 4-11 rushing, 24 routes, 5 tgt, 4-22 receiving

I expect Mixon to run more routes than Samaje Perine in Week 15

On to CLE ⬇️
Josh Larky, a noted Nick Chubb redraft hater, loved the usage he saw in Week 14, even if Chubb only scored 9.5 PPR points

Chubb - 40 snaps, 17-59 rushing, 15 routes, 4 tgt, 3-6 receiving
Other CLE RBs - 26 snaps, 6-27 rushing, 12 routes, 3 tgt, 3-20 receiving

This tied Chubb's
season highs in targets/routes set in his prior game (Week 12)

Hunt likely misses multiple weeks, and if Chubb can capture some of that receiving role, he's a high-end RB1 every week

See below for my Week 15 CLE RB projections ⬇️⬇️
Week 15 CLE RB projections

Chubb: 19-84-0.9 rushing, 2.9 tgt, 2.3-20 receiving, 18.6 PPR
D'Ernest: 9-39-0.3 rushing, 3.5 tgt, 2.3-15 receiving, 9.8 PPR

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The DAL defense is simply too good for us to get consistent weekly fantasy production from Dak and company, but you probably noticed that already

With Pollard OUT in Week 14,
here's how the work was divided up:

Zeke - 50 snaps, 12-45 rushing, 22 routes, 6 tgt, 1-15 receiving
Corey Clement - 22 snaps, 13-44 rushing, 6 routes, 2 tgt, 1-2 receiving
JaQuan Hardy - 2 snaps, 1-3 rushing

I am VERY concerned about this DAL RB situation, with Zeke clearly
not at 100%, and Pollard was a full DNP today with his foot injury

Maybe DAL will be forced to lean pass going forward?

Dak actually a great DFS QB option, but not so much for redraft

Since Dak returned Week 9 from his calf injury, he's had 2 top-3 weekly fantasy finishes, ⬇️
a top-10 weekly finish, and then 3 finishes outside the top-20

I'm still starting Lamb/Cooper/Gallup, but I'd expect low weekly floors for all of them

On to DEN ⬇️⬇️
Javonte CRUSHED in Week 13, so of course the timeshare returned in Week 14

Gordon - 35 snaps, 24-111-2 rushing, 10 routes, 0 tgt, 23.1 PPR
Javonte - 30 snaps, 15-73-1 rushing, 12 routes, 2 tgt, 1-10-1 receiving, 21.3 PPR

Both are weekly RB2s, and no DEN WR is anything more
than a low ceiling FLEX play

Crazy fantasy stat:

Past 6 weeks, DEN WRs have produced a WR10 finish (Patrick, Week 9) and a WR21 finish (Jeudy, Week 9)

No other Top-25 WR finishes the past 6 games for DEN 🥶

On to DET ⬇️⬇️
Amon-Ra St. Brown is an every week MUST START when Swift and/or Hockenson are out

Week 13: 39 routes, 12 tgt (2 RZ), 10-86-1, 24.8 PPR, WR6 overall
Week 14: 34 routes, 12 tgt (1 RZ), 8-73-0, 15.3 PPR, WR27 overall

On to GB
The GB RB room is possibly an uglier timeshare than DEN 🥴

Week 14

Jones - 31 snaps, 5-35-1 rushing, 15 routes, 3 tgt, 3-30-1 receiving, 1 RZ opp, 21.5 PPR
Dillon - 32 snaps, 15-71-0 rushing, 7 routes, 0 tgt, 5 RZ opps, 7.1 PPR

Yes, Jones had the fantasy points in Week 14, but
AJ Dillon had 5 red zone carries to only 1 red zone carry for Aaron Jones

The usage actually leaned Dillon for future fantasy production based on Week 14, and Aaron Jones has fallen to my RB17 rest of season after consistent weeks of Dillon having stronger usage

On to HOU ⬇️⬇️
Wow! We now have 3 fun names to watch in HOU

Nico Collins & Brevin Jordan have been darlings of this weekly thread for several weeks now, and we can add Royce Freeman to the list

Week 14 stats below ⬇️⬇️
Cooks - 41 routes, 11 tgt, 8-101-0 (92 air)
Collins - 40 routes, 10 tgt, 5-69-0 (98 air)
Jordan - 18 routes, 7 tgt, 4-26-1 (46 air)

Freeman - 42 snaps, 11-15 rushing🥶, 25 routes, 8 tgt, 6-51 receiving🔥

Davis Mills not mobile like Tyrod, expect more RB checkdowns going forward
IND on bye in Week 14, here's my (usually) paywalled Week 15 projections for Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman vs the Patriots

JT: 21-94-0.8 rushing, 4 tgt, 3-27 receiving, 20.8 PPR
Pittman: 7 tgt, 4.5-62-0.4, 12.9 PPR

On to JAX ⬇️⬇️
Trevor Lawrence now has a whopping 1 TD pass in JAX's past 6 games 🤯

All JAX receivers are low ceiling flex plays for PPR leagues only

This Week 15 HOU matchup isn't even a good "get right" game

According to @fboutsiders, HOU pass D is #6 DVOA

Also, just like you, I have no
idea what's going on with James Robinson and his usage

Fortunately, HOU a bottom-5 run D, so a rational (key word rational) game plan would be run-heavy against HOU

Truly an incompetent coaching staff, Urban Meyer should have already been fired...

On to KC ⬇️⬇️
I'm not going to take away much from Week 14 vs LV, where it was a total blow-out

But, the RB usage has been sticky since CEH returned

Week 14

CEH: 23 snaps, 10-37-2 rushing, 7 routes, 3 tgt, 3-5 receiving
Darrel: 17 snaps, 2-8 rushing, 12 routes, 3 tgt, 3-31-1 receiving

This
is a true timeshare, where CEH is a 2-down back, and Darrel Williams is their main pass-catching back

Both are start-able in fantasy football against LAC Week 15

Week 15 projections below (I am clearly not respecting the paywall, my apologies) ⬇️⬇️
CEH: 15-63-0.4 rushing, 3 tgt, 2-15 receiving, 12.8 PPR
Darrel: 6-24-0.17 rushing, 4.5 tgt, 3-22 receiving, 9 PPR

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Alright, on to LAC ⬇️⬇️
Ekeler a true GTD for TNF vs the Chiefs

If I had to start a Chargers backup, I'd lean Justin Jackson

This is based on both Week 14 usage and my boss' interview with Austin Ekeler, who mentioned the coaches have more trust in Jackson

Week 14 Stats ⬇️⬇️

Week 14 vs NYG

Justin Jackson: 18 snaps, 9-35 rushing, 8 routes, 1 tgt, 1-7 receiving, 7 (!!!) RZ opps
Joshua Kelley: 15 snaps, 10-33 rushing, 4 routes, 1 tgt, 1-5 receiving, 2 RZ opps

Jackson heavily featured in the RZ despite his stature, similar to Ekeler

On to LAR ⬇️⬇️
With Cooper Kupp, I don't even need to worry about SEA's defense

The @rotounderworld game charters have me covered, thanks guys!

Kupp vs man coverage: 200 routes, 64 tgt, 702 yards
Kupp vs zone: 245 routes, 72 tgt, 725 yards

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Raiders Week 14

Renfrow without Waller is a cheat code, and Renfrow's now my WR14 ROS after 14 tgt, 13-117-1 in Week 14 vs KC

Also, Josh Jacobs is a total bell cow, and can deliver fantasy points even in a blowout

Stats below ⬇️⬇️
Jacobs: 44 snaps, 9-24 rushing, 22 routes, 6 tgt, 5-46 receiving, 10 PPR
Trey Ragas: 9 snaps, 1-9 rushing, 6 routes, 2 tgt, 2-6 receiving
Peyton Barber: 7 snaps, 1-7 rushing, 4 routes, 3 tgt, 2-13 receiving

Ragas only played in garbage time, not the LV backup RB to stash

MIN⬇️
Dalvin Cook had over 200 rush yards vs PIT, but you knew that, right?

KJ Osborn slid right into the Adam Thielen role, and Thielen likely out 2-4 more weeks

Osborn a BIG truther candidate for @fakingfantastic, hat tip to our CTO on Osborn's success

MIN WR stats below ⬇️⬇️
Week 14 vs PIT

Jefferson: 31 routes, 15 tgt (48.4% share), 7-79-1 (172 air)
Osborn: 26 routes, 9 tgt (29% share), 3-83-1 (129 air)
Conklin: 23 routes, 2 tgt (6.5% share), 2-20-0 (8 air)
Dalvin: 18 routes, 3 tgt
Dede: 16 routes, 0 tgt

On to the Saints ⬇️⬇️
Sigh of relief, Kamara commanded Taysom Hill targets in Week 14 vs NYJ

Kamara: 51 snaps, 27-120-1 rushing, 13 routes, 5 tgt (23.8% share), 4-25 receiving, 24.5 PPR
Tony Jones: 18 snaps, 6-10 rushing, 9 routes, 1 tgt, 1-19 receiving, 3.9 PPR

On to NYG ⬇️⬇️
Saquon has an ankle injury though I expect him to play Week 15... but Devontae Booker a desperation flex for those in need of a breathing body in their RB2 slot (no judgment)

Week 14 usage below ⬇️⬇️
Saquon - 36 snaps, 16-64 rushing, 19 routes, 3 tgt, 3-31-1 receiving, 18.5 PPR
Booker - 25 snaps, 8-56 rushing, 17 routes, 5 tgt, 4-28 receiving, 12.4 PPR

On to NYJ ⬇️⬇️
Zach Wilson was without Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, and Michael Carter against the Saints Week 14

But there is minimal light at the end of this long, dark tunnel

@rotounderworld game charters track Money Throws and Danger Plays

MTs are outstanding passes, DPs are often ⬇️⬇️
interception worthy throws or other risky plays

Wilson's past 3 starts, he has 6 danger plays, and only 1 money throw🥶

Through his first 4 starts, Wilson averaged 2.25 money throws and 3 danger plays per game

If anything, the highlight passes that got him drafted at #2
overall have faded away as the season has moved on

I'm highly concerned for him going forward, even if his recent fantasy production hasn't been truly terrible (by his standards)

You've been warned!

On to PIT ⬇️⬇️
PIT is a sneaky offense for DFS 🤫

When Big Ben hits, likely that 2-3 of Diontae/Claypool/Harris/Freiermuth hit as well

Week 14 stats below ⬇️⬇️
Ben - 40 attempts, 308 passYds (293 air), 25.82 fantasy points
Najee - 20-94-1 rushing, 3 tgt, 3-10-1 receiving, 25.4 PPR
Diontae - 10 tgt, 5-76 receiving, 2pt-conv, 15.3 PPR
Claypool - 9 tgt, 8-93 receiving, 17.5 PPR
Freiermuth - 3 tgt, 2-32-1, 11.2 PPR

On to SEA ⬇️⬇️
Rashaad Penny dominated RB touches Week 14

Penny - 16-137-2 rushing, 11 routes, 1 tgt
Collins - 7-16 rushing, 5 routes, 1 tgt
Dallas - 2-16 rushing, 8 routes

Also, Metcalf will be FINE... stats below ⬇️⬇️
Week 13:
Lockett - 8 tgt (1 RZ), 7-68-1 (101 air)
Metcalf - 8 tgt (2 RZ), 5-60 (137 air)

Week 14:
Lockett - 9 tgt, 5-142-1 (234 air)
Metcalf - 8 tgt (2 RZ), 4-43 (85 air)

Metcalf still commanding targets, the big game will come SOON

On to SF ⬇️⬇️
I do not like Deebo's role change, where he legally needs a TD to perform in fantasy...

Week 14

Deebo - 53 snaps, 8-37-1 rushing, 35 routes, 1 tgt, 22 recYds, 12.9 PPR
Kittle - 66 snp, 36 rts, 15 tgt, 13-151-1, 34.1 PPR
Aiyuk - 65 snp, 43 rts, 11 tgt, 6-62-1, 18.6 PPR

TB ⬇️⬇️
Double or triple stack Brady EVERY DAMN WEEK in DFS

Week 14

Brady - 46 pass attempts, 363 passyds (366 air), 30.12 fantasy points
Fournette - 19 carries, 7 tgt, 23.2 PPR
Godwin - 15 tgt, 10-105, 20.5 PPR
Evans - 6 tgt, 6-91-1, 21.1 PPR
Gronk - 9 tgt, 5-62, 11.2 PPR

Also, the
WR3 role in TB looked like Perriman's in Week 13, but then switched over to Tyler Johnson in Week 14

Prefer Perriman if you're stashing 1 in redraft

On to TEN ⬇️⬇️
Holy timeshare!

Week 14

Foreman - 23 snaps, 13-47-1 rushing, 4 routes, 2 tgt, 2-15 receiving, 14.2 PPR
McNichols - 25 snaps, 8-16 rushing, 4 routes, 1 tgt, 1.6 PPR
Hilliard - 23 snaps, 6-13 rushing, 7 routes, 2 tgt, 1.3 PPR

Start Foreman, drop McNichols/Hilliard

Before ending
with WAS, reminder this thread is free, & your likes/RTs/follows help me justify the ~4 hours each week it takes to plan and write this up (I like keeping it free, and not paywalled)

Also, if you want to help me out, please (PLEASE) follow my new Tik Tok (@JLarkyTikToks), as I'm
trying my best to grow there and progress is REALLY slow haha

No more pity party, on to WAS ⬇️⬇️
We know the WAS TE role is often fruitful for fantasy, but Week 14 actually had some murky usage

Ricky Seals-Jones: 12 routes, 4 tgt, 1-8 receiving (17 air)
John Bates: 21 routes, 2 tgt, 1-19 receiving (0 air)

If forced to choose, I'd lean RSJ who has a better track record of
production when called upon.

But, in tight end premium leagues, if RSJ is gone and Bates is available, he's not the worst end of bench stash to see if the routes advantage in Week 14 was a sign of future targets.

My hunch: they were easing RSJ back in, post-injury

That is
all for tonight, folks

Thanks for reading along and I hope you enjoyed the thread

Later this week, you can catch me on the @rotounderworld podcast air waves late Friday night with @RandleRant, when we record the Big Tilt, a DFS podcast

Wednesday night? Time for a 🍺 (or 2)

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More from @jlarkytweets

25 Nov
The BIG Week 11 recap thread

1-2 observations for EVERY team from Week 11

Advanced stats, actionable info, etc.

Let's start with ARI:

Rondale Moore's role is basically that of a pass-catching RB

In Week 11, he played 33 snaps, ran 21 routes, and was targeted on OVER half of
them (!) 11 tgt, 11-51-0 on those 21 routes

Totaled 18 air yards, for an aDOT of 1.64 🥶

Very unique usage, and assuming Hopkins comes back after their Week 12 bye, unlikely he sees this volume again. Bench stash, maybe

Conversely, Zach Ertz is having a surprisingly great ⬇️⬇️
season.

After 9 tgts, and 8-88-2 in Week 11, Ertz' full season numbers are reminiscent of pre-2020

In 2021, his 2.16 yards per route run is 7th at the TE position, and he's averaging 13.5 fantasy points per game in 5 games with ARI.

Let's move on to ATL ⬇️⬇️
Read 81 tweets
22 Nov
First Mover (DFS and Player Props with Josh Larky) twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…
WOOOOO!!!! That was a FUN show

Who knew getting up at 5am to prep for the 6am live stream could end well?!
Fast-forward to 4:30 for the start of the show 🔥
Read 4 tweets
10 Nov
BIG WEEK 9 RECAP THREAD

Below, find 1-2 observations for each team from Week 9 as I work on Week 10 projections

Let's start with Arizona

Chase Edmonds went down early, and James Conner was an absolute BELL COW

Conner- 52 snaps, 21 carries, 15 routes, 5 targets (cont.)

⬇️⬇️⬇️
for a 19% tgt share, and 5 RZ opportunities

Eno Benjamin played 17 snaps, had 9 carries, and ran 2 routes with no targets

Eno is a priority pickup due to his all-purpose skillset and Conner's lengthy injury history

Edmonds out most, if not all, of the FF season

On to ATL ⬇️⬇️
ATL routes (targets) breakdown:

Russell Gage - 26 (8)
Tajae Sharpe - 26 (1)
Kyle Pitts - 23 (7)
Cordarrelle Patterson - 20 (6)
Olamide Zaccheaus - 16 (3)
Hayden Hurst - 11 (3)
Mike Davis - 9 (2)

It's unlikely Tajae Sharpe is the routes run leader again after this showing...⬇️⬇️
Read 46 tweets

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