1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Fate of Build Back Better and Voting Rights in the Senate P
Chances for Democrats to approve the Build Back Better deal are dimming before Christmas.
Chances for Democrats to approve the Build Back Better deal are dimming before Christmas.
2) Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has said for weeks the Senate would approve the measure before December 25. Schumer didn’t say that Wednesday.
Schumer doesn’t have the votes - even to launch a debate on the bill. They are running out of track.
Schumer doesn’t have the votes - even to launch a debate on the bill. They are running out of track.
3) And, the bill isn’t complete. It’s still undergoing the behind the scenes “Byrd Bath.” This is a mysterious, offstage process where the Senate Parliamentarian decides what is in and what is out of the bill - in order to qualify for special budget rules.
4) This is a laborious process which would take days. So, Manchin doesn’t have to be on board. This buys Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) the “pause” he demanded.
5) But this bill doesn’t get better with time. The potential for more things to go wrong increases the longer this bill percolates.
And, a delay will drive progressives, especially in the House, batty.
And, a delay will drive progressives, especially in the House, batty.
6) That’s to say nothing of House Democratic moderates who already voted for the bill a few weeks ago.
They will be apoplectic if this bill never makes it through the Senate and they walked the plank in the House.
They will be apoplectic if this bill never makes it through the Senate and they walked the plank in the House.
7) Don’t forget that many moderate Democrats voted for the “cap and trade” climate bill in 2009 - and the bill never saw the light of day in the Senate.
Democrats are pivoting - at least verbally - to an effort to pass voting rights. But chances there aren’t much better.
Democrats are pivoting - at least verbally - to an effort to pass voting rights. But chances there aren’t much better.
8) Senate Democrats can’t actually change the Senate rules to break a filibuster just to GET to a debate on a formal rules change. That requires 67 yeas!
So be wary when you hear senators say they are opposed to changing the filibuster “rule.”
So be wary when you hear senators say they are opposed to changing the filibuster “rule.”
9) But, they could try to do a “precedent” change in the Senate to create a special carve out for filibusters - specifically on voting rights legislation.
10) Such a gambit is much easier and only requires 51 votes. And, in fact, the Senate conducts much of its business based on “precedent” rather than its standing rules.
11) This maneuver would mirror other precedent changes for the filibuster brought on by Nuclear Option 1 in 2013 for executive branch nominees and Nuclear Option 2 in 2017 for Supreme Court nominees.
12) But Democrats need 51 votes to establish a new precedent to break a filibuster on voting rights. Wnd so far, Democrats lack the votes on that score as well.
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