1/10 Today's Omicron briefing . A 5-pt plan to blunt Omicron (slide 16): (1) Cut contacts by 50%; (2) acc boosters to HCW & vulnerable; (3) masking, distancing & ventilation (4) put treatments where they are most needed; (5) act now. #COVID19ONcovid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
3/10 Slide 6 & 7: South Africa itself – sometimes cited as evidence of O’s slower severity -- is now seeing hospitalizations rise with Omicron. But the rise in death there is less steep than in previous waves. #COVID19ONcovid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
5/10 Slide 9: UK data show why we need boosters. Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease drops to 35% with two doses of Pfizer, but is around 75% with three doses. #COVID19ONcovid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
6/10 Slide 10: One slide that lists all the key ways that we model Omicron differently than earlier strains. Worth reading to understand what we're facing. #COVID19ONcovid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
7/10 Slide 11: We model a “circuit breaker”: cutting contacts by 50% through public health measures, while rolling out boosters quickly. That could blunt the force of the Omicron wave. #COVID19ONcovid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
8/10 Slides 12-14: Hospitalizations are already rising on Ontario and are likely to rise substantially even if Omicron is 25% less severe than Delta. . #COVID19ONcovid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
10/10 A 5-pt plan to blunt Omicron (slide 16): (1) Cut contacts by 50%; (2) acc boosters to HCW & vulnerable; (3) masking, distancing & ventilation (4) put treatments where they are most needed; (5) act now. #COVID19ONcovid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
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1/4 Pls take note: Omicron Rt is now 4.29. Every person with Omicron is infecting more than four other people. By comparison, anyone with Delta in Ontario currently infects only 1 other person. #COVID19ONcovid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
3 / 4 Time to accelerate boosters (that yellow line at the bottom). Boosters won’t stop Ontario’s 5th wave right now; they take time to protect a population. But they WILL protect you. Book one as soon as you can, six months after your 2nd shot. #COVID19ONcovid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
Omicron is here 1/5 We’re now following Omicron closely on our dashboard. Some key figures: Rt for Omicron is 3.32 (!!!), compared to 1.27 for all variants combined…. #COVID19ONcovid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
Slides 3/4/5: We’re walking a narrow ledge. Positivity down but not consistently across ages & 19/34 PHUs have growing cases. We’re ok for now, but we have no wiggle room. #COVID19ONcovid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
Slides 6 & 7: Vaccines are our most important weapon & we have to reach more Ontarians. But until vaxx rates are much higher, the combo of current vaxx rates & public health measures are helping to control cases. #COVID19ONcovid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
There appear to be some rumours that the Science Advisory Table is withholding a consensus model of COVID-19 in the Fall. To be absolutely clear, that is not true. Pls read thread 1/4
We are now working to understand how COVID-19 may affect Ontario in coming months. As always, that means integrating the views arising from *many* models done by *many* teams and reviewing those results *across* teams until we generate a reasonable, scientific consensus. 2/4
Anything less is not rigorous science, and risks either underestimating or overestimating the real dangers we may face. A lot of mathematical and scientific work goes into generating a modelling consensus that Ontarians can count on; we move quickly, but not prematurely. 3/4
1/5 Ontario’s prescription: Vaccinate twice & stay patient. Vaccines are working – Rt is 0.75, but as mobility surges, we have to be patient with re-opening. Let’s stick with the plan… #COVID19ONcovid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
2/5 Ontario’s prescription: Wait for the data… Infection & hospitalization are lagging indicators. We’ll only know by next week whether Phase 1 re-opening (two weeks ago) drove more infections or hospitalization. #COVID19ONcovid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
3/5 Ontario’s prescription: Get vaccinated, please! Pls don’t pick and choose between Moderna & Pfizer. You can mix and match these – don’t hesitate. #COVID19ONcovid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
3/7 Here’s a way to think of Ontario’s choice: Partial re-opening June 2? Or June 16? Do we push COVID down to keep COVID down, or do we lift stay at home two weeks earlier, see more cases and push back down later in the summer? #COVID19Ontariocovid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/upl…