1/10 Today's Omicron briefing . A 5-pt plan to blunt Omicron (slide 16): (1) Cut contacts by 50%; (2) acc boosters to HCW & vulnerable; (3) masking, distancing & ventilation (4) put treatments where they are most needed; (5) act now. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
2/10 Slide 4 & 5: Cases are rising across Ontario & Omicron will be dominant this week. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
3/10 Slide 6 & 7: South Africa itself – sometimes cited as evidence of O’s slower severity -- is now seeing hospitalizations rise with Omicron. But the rise in death there is less steep than in previous waves. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
4/10 Slide 8: Early data from Denmark are also showing rising hospital rates with Omicron. As with earlier strains. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
5/10 Slide 9: UK data show why we need boosters. Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease drops to 35% with two doses of Pfizer, but is around 75% with three doses. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
6/10 Slide 10: One slide that lists all the key ways that we model Omicron differently than earlier strains. Worth reading to understand what we're facing. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
7/10 Slide 11: We model a “circuit breaker”: cutting contacts by 50% through public health measures, while rolling out boosters quickly. That could blunt the force of the Omicron wave. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
8/10 Slides 12-14: Hospitalizations are already rising on Ontario and are likely to rise substantially even if Omicron is 25% less severe than Delta. . #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
9/10 Slide 15: Vulnerable Ontarians need third doses quickly. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
10/10 A 5-pt plan to blunt Omicron (slide 16): (1) Cut contacts by 50%; (2) acc boosters to HCW & vulnerable; (3) masking, distancing & ventilation (4) put treatments where they are most needed; (5) act now. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…

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More from @COVIDSciOntario

15 Dec
1/4 Pls take note: Omicron Rt is now 4.29. Every person with Omicron is infecting more than four other people. By comparison, anyone with Delta in Ontario currently infects only 1 other person. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
2 / 4 Omicron is doubling in Ontario every three days. Every. Three. Days. We have no evidence that this is a less severe form of COVID-19. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
3 / 4 Time to accelerate boosters (that yellow line at the bottom). Boosters won’t stop Ontario’s 5th wave right now; they take time to protect a population. But they WILL protect you. Book one as soon as you can, six months after your 2nd shot. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
Read 4 tweets
13 Dec
Omicron is here 1/5 We’re now following Omicron closely on our dashboard. Some key figures: Rt for Omicron is 3.32 (!!!), compared to 1.27 for all variants combined…. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
Omicron is here 2/5: Just. Look. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
Omicron is here 3/5 21% of Ontario’s cases are now Omicron. The number of Omicron cases here is doubling every three (!!) days. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
Read 5 tweets
28 Sep
We’ve just released new COVID modeling. We’ll take you through it in eight tweets. You can get the deck here: covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u… #COVID19ON
Slides 3/4/5: We’re walking a narrow ledge. Positivity down but not consistently across ages & 19/34 PHUs have growing cases. We’re ok for now, but we have no wiggle room. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
Slides 6 & 7: Vaccines are our most important weapon & we have to reach more Ontarians. But until vaxx rates are much higher, the combo of current vaxx rates & public health measures are helping to control cases. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
Read 10 tweets
22 Aug
There appear to be some rumours that the Science Advisory Table is withholding a consensus model of COVID-19 in the Fall. To be absolutely clear, that is not true. Pls read thread 1/4
We are now working to understand how COVID-19 may affect Ontario in coming months. As always, that means integrating the views arising from *many* models done by *many* teams and reviewing those results *across* teams until we generate a reasonable, scientific consensus. 2/4
Anything less is not rigorous science, and risks either underestimating or overestimating the real dangers we may face. A lot of mathematical and scientific work goes into generating a modelling consensus that Ontarians can count on; we move quickly, but not prematurely. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
22 Jun
1/5 Ontario’s prescription: Vaccinate twice & stay patient. Vaccines are working – Rt is 0.75, but as mobility surges, we have to be patient with re-opening. Let’s stick with the plan… #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
2/5 Ontario’s prescription: Wait for the data… Infection & hospitalization are lagging indicators. We’ll only know by next week whether Phase 1 re-opening (two weeks ago) drove more infections or hospitalization. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
3/5 Ontario’s prescription: Get vaccinated, please! Pls don’t pick and choose between Moderna & Pfizer. You can mix and match these – don’t hesitate. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
Read 5 tweets
20 May
1/7 Infections are dropping in more places than they are growing – positive direction even in Peel & Toronto. This is the beginning of a good trend… #COVID19Ontario covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/upl…
2 / 7 ICUs are still overstretched & our hospitals are still under extreme stress – so we’re not out of the woods. We have to protect our health care system… #COVID19Ontario covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/upl…
3/7 Here’s a way to think of Ontario’s choice: Partial re-opening June 2? Or June 16? Do we push COVID down to keep COVID down, or do we lift stay at home two weeks earlier, see more cases and push back down later in the summer? #COVID19Ontario covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/upl…
Read 7 tweets

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