RVSN day is on. As usual, main course is Krasnaya Zvezda interview with Commander Karakayev, and this time there are A LOT of details: redstar.ru/besspornyj-arg…
THREAD
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Over the next several years Sarmat and Yars "with enhanced battle capabilities" (UTTKh?) will enter service, and a development of new (!) road-mobile ICBM is in progress.
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New missile defense penetration aids are under development, including for the HGV-armed missile system (Avangard?).
Fundamentally new (HGV?) battle payloads to be mated with new missile systems, including solid-fuel ICBMs.
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21 re-armed msl rgts entered service between 2011 and 2021,
Msl rgts in Kozelsk (28th GMD, silo) and Barnaul (35th MD, mobile) re-armed in 2021. Total 36 msl rgts with modern ICBMs, 20 - mobile, 16 - silo.
4/
Plan for 2022 - 4 msl rgts.
Silo:
Sarmat in Uzhur (62th MD)
Avangard in Yasny (13th MD)
Mobile:
Yars in Vypolzovo (7th GMD)
Yars in "Kirov Region" - this one is tricky, likely Sirena-M for Yurya (8th MD)
5/
25 ICBM launches over last 5 years
10+ launches planned for 2022, majority will be test launches — obviously, Sarmat, but maybe also Osina, Anchar?..
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General note: lots of details on ICBM basing and battle patrol area protection with robotized systems, and big emphasis on enhanced command and control nodes.
7/7
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Somehow people seem to be very much interested in what I have to say about "Russian buildup on Ukrainian border", and future of the Ukrainian crisis.
I am not a real expert, and not an impartial observer, but anyway, a short thread might be useful.
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It is a hedging and a message to Kiev and its sponsors that they need to stay calm and behave. There are basically two alternatives: 1) Minsk-II, and people in Moscow seem to be ready to wait for its implementation (even w/ 'addendums' a-la Steinmeier Formula) indefinitely.
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2) Declaration of 'withdrawal' from Minsk-II by Kiev, and Ukrainian offensive in Donbass, which will end up in a rather swift destruction of the Ukrainian armed forces (and probably some civilian governmental infrustructure), but no Russian occupation...
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We have a new 3-day series of defense-focused meetings held by Putin in Sochi. Today the focus is long-term development, and we learned that:
- Nuclear triad capabilities have been enhanced
- S-500 tests nearing completion
- armed forces carried out everything planned for 2020
- Kalibr-armed ships contribute to the expansion of the Navy capabilities
- Tsirkon mentioned as explicitly ship-based system, final stages of state trials
- 70+% of Air-Space Forces Air Defense rgts re-armed w/ S-400
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- S-500 trials are being succesfully completed, deliveries to the forces to start soon
- risks and military threats are present, so refinement. development and re-armament of the armed forces will continue
- military industry and design bureaues will receive support
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Patrushev held talks with Sullivan in Geneva today. "Important step towards Presidential Summit".
Fun fact: Yang Jiechi is in Moscow for the 16th round of RU-CN "Strategic Security" talks tomorrow. tass.ru/politika/11451…
Official release on Patrushev-Sullivan "consultations" in Geneva today: scrf.gov.ru/news/allnews/2…
- a "logical continuation" of Lavrov-Blinken talks on May 19
- important milestone toward Presidential Summit
- "constructive", disagreements remain, but...
...as well as traditional concerns on 56 Trident-II launch tubes, 41 'non-nuclear' B-52H heavy bombers and 4 MM-III "training silos". So +101 deployed and non-deployed launchers.
I hope that over the next five years we'll see such releases on a regular basis, and those will become more Russia-focused.
And, of course, the US should be proactive regarding Russian concerns with #NewSTART implementation.
Some of you might have noticed a claim by Almaz-Antey head Yan Novikov that X-37B can carry up to 3 ("smaller one") or 6 ("bigger one") nuclear warheads: ria.ru/20210522/x-37-…
I've decided to watch a full speech...and now I have mixed feelings.
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I've made some screenshots with his slides (sorry for the quality). HTV-2 and X-51A remain quite popular within the Russian military industry...but X-37B hype is unmatched, unexpectedly.