Tweet

Dmitry Stefanovich

16 Dec, 7 tweets, 1 min read

RVSN day is on. As usual, main course is Krasnaya Zvezda interview with Commander Karakayev, and this time there are A LOT of details: redstar.ru/besspornyj-arg…

THREAD

1/

Over the next several years Sarmat and Yars "with enhanced battle capabilities" (UTTKh?) will enter service, and a development of new (!) road-mobile ICBM is in progress.

2/

New missile defense penetration aids are under development, including for the HGV-armed missile system (Avangard?).

Fundamentally new (HGV?) battle payloads to be mated with new missile systems, including solid-fuel ICBMs.

3/

21 re-armed msl rgts entered service between 2011 and 2021,

Msl rgts in Kozelsk (28th GMD, silo) and Barnaul (35th MD, mobile) re-armed in 2021. Total 36 msl rgts with modern ICBMs, 20 - mobile, 16 - silo.

4/

Plan for 2022 - 4 msl rgts.
Silo:
Sarmat in Uzhur (62th MD)
Avangard in Yasny (13th MD)
Mobile:
Yars in Vypolzovo (7th GMD)
Yars in "Kirov Region" - this one is tricky, likely Sirena-M for Yurya (8th MD)

5/

25 ICBM launches over last 5 years
10+ launches planned for 2022, majority will be test launches — obviously, Sarmat, but maybe also Osina, Anchar?..

6/

General note: lots of details on ICBM basing and battle patrol area protection with robotized systems, and big emphasis on enhanced command and control nodes.

7/7

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More from @KomissarWhipla

Dmitry Stefanovich

@KomissarWhipla

23 Nov

Somehow people seem to be very much interested in what I have to say about "Russian buildup on Ukrainian border", and future of the Ukrainian crisis.

I am not a real expert, and not an impartial observer, but anyway, a short thread might be useful.

1/

It is a hedging and a message to Kiev and its sponsors that they need to stay calm and behave. There are basically two alternatives:
1) Minsk-II, and people in Moscow seem to be ready to wait for its implementation (even w/ 'addendums' a-la Steinmeier Formula) indefinitely.

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2) Declaration of 'withdrawal' from Minsk-II by Kiev, and Ukrainian offensive in Donbass, which will end up in a rather swift destruction of the Ukrainian armed forces (and probably some civilian governmental infrustructure), but no Russian occupation...

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Dmitry Stefanovich

@KomissarWhipla

25 May

We have a new 3-day series of defense-focused meetings held by Putin in Sochi. Today the focus is long-term development, and we learned that:
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- S-500 tests nearing completion
- armed forces carried out everything planned for 2020

We have a readout: kremlin.ru/events/preside…

- Kalibr-armed ships contribute to the expansion of the Navy capabilities
- Tsirkon mentioned as explicitly ship-based system, final stages of state trials
- 70+% of Air-Space Forces Air Defense rgts re-armed w/ S-400

2/

- S-500 trials are being succesfully completed, deliveries to the forces to start soon
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- military industry and design bureaues will receive support

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Dmitry Stefanovich

@KomissarWhipla

24 May

Patrushev held talks with Sullivan in Geneva today. "Important step towards Presidential Summit".

Fun fact: Yang Jiechi is in Moscow for the 16th round of RU-CN "Strategic Security" talks tomorrow. tass.ru/politika/11451…

Official release on Patrushev-Sullivan "consultations" in Geneva today: scrf.gov.ru/news/allnews/2…
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Dmitry Stefanovich

@KomissarWhipla

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Unbelievable, we have #NewSTART figures on the MFA website: mid.ru/web/guest/maps…

...as well as traditional concerns on 56 Trident-II launch tubes, 41 'non-nuclear' B-52H heavy bombers and 4 MM-III "training silos". So +101 deployed and non-deployed launchers.

I hope that over the next five years we'll see such releases on a regular basis, and those will become more Russia-focused.

And, of course, the US should be proactive regarding Russian concerns with #NewSTART implementation.

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Dmitry Stefanovich

@KomissarWhipla

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I've decided to watch a full speech...and now I have mixed feelings.

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It can be found here: marathon.znanierussia.ru
(but the interface is not very intuitive).

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I've made some screenshots with his slides (sorry for the quality). HTV-2 and X-51A remain quite popular within the Russian military industry...but X-37B hype is unmatched, unexpectedly.

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