OK, clearly we are not shouting this loud enough.

The figures yesterday were from swabs on MONDAY

Omicron is doubling every 2 days - don't expect a downturn yet.
Problem 2.

The doubling time is different in different regions - and none of it is lengthy

Problem 3.

We will soon lose our ability to keep track as infections outstrip the ability to turn PCR's around - that would give a false peak.

Problem 4.

The maths is against us. Omicron would have to be a LOT less serious than delta not to hit the NHS like a battering ram.

Problem 5.

Very soon we will be flying blind on data.

Without the PCR turnaround, I suspect the "isolate following a positive PCR" will be dead in the water.

As both Meaghan & Chris indicate, that would require a major policy change.

Or lockdown.
Everything we want to avoid, all the shouting on civil liberties etc really depends on this.

We ALL have to do everything to minimise spread.

It is already too late to stop this juggernaut, but acting now will limit how far it ploughs on.
A final thought.

From the data we CAN see, we are heading for a bigger peak in cases and hospitalisations that last January.

By New Years day.

That is not scaremongering, just maths. And conservative maths at that.

It rests now on each & every one of us.

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More from @JohnWest_JAWS

15 Dec
There are a few interesting articles out today.

The first is this, which gives some hope that omicron MIGHT be less serious as it favours the bronchial tract rather than lung tissue.

theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…
On the downside is this, which appears to show vaccine efficacy is lower than many may think

Prof Colin has shown that the omicron cases today are following the path seen rather than massively lowering its doubling time.

Which still means it is doubling every 1.7 days though

Read 5 tweets
13 Dec
I have to say, as an address to the nation, I found Keir Starmer's address fairly underwhelming.

Yes, we need to do all to get the boosters done.

But we also need to maximise vaccination in those aged 12 - 15.

We need to get vaccinations agreed & in action for those 5+
We ALL need to do everything to buy time - masking, distancing & filtration in schools & public buildings.

And we need to be doing all of that now.
And for the love of God we need proper communication between government & those who are to deliver.

No more idiotic, off the cuff recorded announcements without ANY planning.
Read 4 tweets
12 Dec
There were things @BorisJohnson could have announced tonight - or even 2 weeks ago - that would have made a difference.

He could have introduced vaccination for 5 to 12 year olds.

He could additionally have had schools close a week early.
And used that time for HEPA filtration & ventilation to be put in place in schools.

He could also have reintroduced distancing & street masking - maybe even FFP2 minimum masks.

Instead he chose to announce an impossible target.
It is hard to see this as anything other than a distraction from his own political woes currently - the news media will be full of what he has said & little else.

There is pressure being put on the 1922 to have him step down.

If and when it fails & thousands die? - "He tried"
Read 5 tweets
11 Dec
A video of Allegra Stratton and ‘party’ surfaces and she quickly resigns.

Massive news coverage

A video of @Jacob_Rees_Mogg appears on Monday at the IEA mocking about parties appears - nothing.

No press coverage at all & he has gone into hiding.

Why is Mogg being protected?
On the very same day as the IEA video came out he did this.

Again - why is Mogg being protected?

Why is there no coverage of @Jacob_Rees_Mogg when you put so much into @AllegraCOP26

@BBCNews @SkyNews @Peston @bbclaurak
Read 4 tweets
10 Dec
To anyone thinking "Oh that's all right then - 3 shots & we are good"

This is a pandemic - we need to do that EVERYWHERE

bbc.co.uk/news/health-59…
If we fail to do so?

The next variant will come - and the next.

You cannot deal with a pan global infection with only a narrow national mindset.

Nor can you pretend boosters are fine when our children have NO vaccine protection.
Don't be fooled into thinking there is no resulting increase in hospitalisations either.

South Africa is seeing an increase at a rate greater than previously.

Read 5 tweets

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