Thread by @danielgoyal

There is a real concern that some decision-makers BELIEVE Covid-19 is only a ‘bit’ worse than Flu. This justifies less effort to treat or prevent Covid.

It is so important to dispel this absolutely wrong comparison.

🧵 1/8
RT pls.
#CareForCovid

Let’s use the UK as an example:
Flu directly causes around 4 deaths per day.
Bacterial pneumonia around 55 deaths per day.
Currently Covid-19 causes around 120 deaths per day.

Source: ONS.

Some agencies and scientists report flu and pneumonia together. This leads to the confusing estimate that “Flu and Pneumonia” causes 20k deaths per year. Covid around 40-60k.
Some interpret this as “well Covid is only twice as bad as flu”.
This is entirely wrong!!!

It’s important, because most of us see Flu as unpleasant but not dangerous. Therefore Using combined figures Covid looks like “worse than flu, but only a bit”…”not great but not worth masks, ventilation, social restrictions, and yes even vaccines.”
The reality is quite different

The truth is that flu deaths are between 500 and 1500 per year.

Pneumonia (bacterial) are around 20k per year.

As we are all aware Covid is between 40-80k per year.

Covid kills more than 30 times that of flu.
[ONS]

Additional confusion is added when people start using modelling studies to estimate NOT direct Flu deaths, but deaths where flu contributed to death (usually bacterial pneumonia). You may hear the number between 4-20k deaths per year.

It’s important to realise almost all of these deaths are still from bacterial pneumonia. What the public will see is that someone has gone to hospital with pneumonia not flu.
Most of us perceive pneumonia as pretty serious!

There is an easy way to understand it all. Compare Covid-19 with pneumonia! We know pneumonia is the highest burden infectious disease in the UK (pre-Covid) and puts huge pressures on the NHS in winter. Now consider that Covid triples that burden!!!

We can look at rate of hospital admission as well.
Flu admissions PEAKS around 0.5 per 100k population.
Currently Covid-19 is 6.5 and peaking at 36 per 100k in Jan.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

Covid-19 is by a long way the most destructive and burdensome infectious disease in most high-income countries.

And this is what we see on the ground. Flu pneumonia, hardly ever seen. Bacterial pneumonia, commonly seen. Sadly, Covid-19 pneumonia very commonly seen every day!

So our measures to control it must be proportional.
Mass vaccination- justifiable
Indoor ventilation- justifiable
Masks - justifiable
Field hospitals - justifiable

@HumzaYousaf @sajidjavid @trishgreenhalgh @Kit_Yates_Maths @chrischirp @CNagpaul @ChrisCEOHopson

Reading the responses, it is worth clarifying:
- The symptoms of Covid can be like a cold or flu. In <10% it can progress to the lower lungs and cause inflammation, which in some <5% cause Covid Pneumonia.
- the death rate and healthcare burden from Covid is much worse than Flu