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Ryan Hisner Profile picture
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17 Dec, 12 tweets, 6 min read
1/ Can't put it better than @micah_arsham does here. The CDC treats the public like 1st-graders. Their job is to inform & advise the public, warning of any imminent dangers, & they've utterly failed. People will be blind-sided, with grim consequences.
2/ As long as the CDC crafts their messaging for political purposes, with a greater concern for shaping public attitudes and manipulating public behavior than telling the unvarnished truth, they will not regain public trust. @michaelmina_lab said it well:
3/ John Barry, author of The Great Influenza, on the *fundamental lesson* of the 1918 pandemic:
"Those in authority must retain the public’s trust. The way to do that is to distort nothing, to put the best face on nothing, to try to manipulate no one"
rochester.edu/newscenter/his…
4/ In 1918, public officials in Philadelphia (and elsewhere) downplayed influenza to maintain the high public morale they thought essential to the war effort. In 2021, the CDC is downplaying Omicron to....have a merry Christmas? I don't even know. rgj.com/story/news/loc…
5/ We've witnessed CDC dissembling from the very beginning, when, concerned about the limited supply of N95s for medical workers, they lied to the public the usefulness of masks, as @zeynep ably documents here. nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opi…
6/ We saw it again when the J&J vaccine was approved & the CDC pretended there was no appreciable difference between the effectiveness of the vaccines, though J&J was demonstrably inferior. "The best vaccine is the one you're offered" was the message everywhere.
7/ Belatedly, the CDC has rectified their dishonest messaging about the relative effectiveness of the J&J and mRNA vaccines. nbcnews.com/health/health-…
8/ Unfortunately, this may be too late for vulnerable people who received J&J for their first dose. Boosting after a J&J prime is not nearly as effective as a boost after mRNA primary vaccination, as @michaelzlin explains in this excellent thread.
9/ Furthermore, the CDC continues to fail to inform people how to remain as safe as possible. They've acknowledged #COVIDisAirborne, but they continue to fail to inform people how to protect themselves. Ventilation, in particular, is routinely ignored.
10/ See essential thread here by @jljcolorado for the sort of advice on how to avoid airborne transmission that ought to be prominently and repeatedly featured by the CDC.
11/ For the history of the denial of airborne transmission by the CDC and WHO, read this thread, yet another phenomenal one by top aerosol scientist Jose-Luis Jimenez. I cannot recommend reading his many, many awesome threads enough.
12/ In the end, for the CDC to gain public trust, they have to trust the public, something they are clearly very resistant to doing. After four successive waves of Covid, they've learned nothing. I hope they learn something before the next pandemic.

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Ryan Hisner Profile picture
16 Dec
1/8 Maybe the most well-designed antibody study on Omicron yet. The 🧵 is very well written & the figures are the clearest & best I've seen. Awesome work. Takeaways:

3-dose mRNA > Infection + mRNA >>>> Recent 2-dose mRNA

Moderna > Pfizer >>>> natural infection or J&J
2/8 We already knew J&J primary vaccination was much inferior to either mRNA shot, but this study indicates J&J inferiority remains even after boosting with mRNA, which is troubling.
3/8 Excellent, comprehensive, and enlightening thread on this subject below by @michaelzlin. He makes the case that J&J recipients need 2 mRNA shots, & I don't see how anyone could disagree. Lots of other great insights here as well. Highly recommended.
Read 8 tweets
Ryan Hisner Profile picture
15 Dec
1/5 Another lab study showing extreme Omicron evasion of NAbs—33-44x reduction for mRNA & AZ. Zero detectable neutralization for J&J, Sputnik, Sinopharm, and—crucially—a majority of convalescents. Infection + mRNA vaccination, on the other hand, holds up well. h/t @dgurdasani1
2/5 Seven out of the eight monoclonal antibody (MAb) treatments currently in use are rendered useless by Omicron. The other (sotrovimab) has 3-fold reduced neutralization vs Omicron. Note: this study used VSV pseudovirus expressing Omicron S protein, not live virus.
3/5 ACE2 affinity increased compared to ancestral SARS-CoV-2, though still lower than that seen in Alpha. No info on Delta, though in silico analysis estimates Omicron binds more tightly than Delta. biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
Read 5 tweets
Ryan Hisner Profile picture
14 Dec
1/4 We're about to get a preview of what's going to happen with climate change in coming decades. You cannot wait until hospitals are overwhelmed to take action. It's too late.

Similarly, if you wait until climate catastrophe is upon us, the game is up. You waited far too long. Image
2/4 I think few people understand that even if we were to begin dramatically cutting CO2 emissions today & go zero carbon by, say, 2040, the world would continue to warm for some time, & the already severe climate change effects would continue to worsen.

npr.org/2021/04/14/981… Image
3/4 The parallels with Covid don't end there. One likely reason we see such pathetically insufficient action on climate change is that the worst costs will be borne by the poor. And inhabitants of poor countries don't get to vote in rich-country elections. Image
Read 4 tweets
Ryan Hisner Profile picture
14 Dec
1/6 Imagine that: Omicron is undergoing phenomenally fast exponential growth in the US, just like in the UK, Denmark, and South Africa. Crossing the Atlantic didn't impair its transmissibility. Who could've guessed?

Dec 6—3%
Dec 7—7%
Dec 8—13% Image
2/6 Take it from the master himself, Trevor B: "There is an inevitable very large wave of Omicron. It's going to happen." nytimes.com/live/2021/12/1… Image
3/6 There's such an air of fatalism around all this, as if we are utterly incapable of doing anything that could dampen or avert a devastating Omicron wave. Hospitals are already at max capacity in many states. An Omicron tsunami approaches, & we collectively shrug our shoulders.
Read 6 tweets
Ryan Hisner Profile picture
27 Nov
1/8 Extremely important 🧵. There is a reason many VOCs have emerged from South Africa. These variants often evolve in chronic infections in immunocompromised hosts, accumulating adaptive mutations as they evade the host's immune response. Around 20% of S. Africans have HIV.
2/8 When HIV+ people are treated properly with antiretrovirals, their immune response is sufficient to respond to vaccines and clear infections. But shockingly, only 71% of HIV+ South Africans have access to antiretrovirals (ARVs). This is a moral outrage.
3/8 It's an outrage first & foremost because these are fellow human beings unnecessarily suffering from a chronic, devastating, and treatable disease. I don't understand all the reasons so many of those HIV+ still lack access to antiretrovirals...
Read 8 tweets
Ryan Hisner Profile picture
26 Nov
1/ In other words, not as good as fluvoxamine, which in per-protocol analysis of a randomized controlled trial (ie among patients who actually took ≥80% of the treatment) reduced hospitalizations 66% (CI: 46-79% reduction) & deaths 91% (CI: 53-99%) w/an excellent safety profile.
2/ At ~$4 per course, one would think fluvoxamine would be getting at least as much attention as a promising Covid treatment as the $700 Merck drug molnupiravir (which has raised concerns that it might facilitate variants if a full course is not taken).
3/ Unfortunately, I fear that without a major pharmaceutical company to lobby politicians and regulators to recommend its use, it appears doubtful that fluvoxamine will be prescribed off-label for Covid except to a very small number of people.
Read 5 tweets

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