Weekly French Covid Thread
A confusing week. The 5th (Delta) wave has levelled off but the 6th (Omicron) wave is rising fast behind it. PM Jean Castex announced that the “health pass” will become a “vaccine pass” from Jan. A negative C19 test will no longer qualify. 1/12
A confusing week. The 5th (Delta) wave has levelled off but the 6th (Omicron) wave is rising fast behind it. PM Jean Castex announced that the “health pass” will become a “vaccine pass” from Jan. A negative C19 test will no longer qualify. 1/12
New cases in France only rose by 6% this week to 51,102 a day – after rises of 24% and 52% in previous weeks. How many are the new Omicron variant, booming in UK, DK and Belgium? Officially, there are only 347 cases in Fr. It may really be 10x that figure, virologists fear 2/12 
As a result, France’s decision to ban tourist/business travel from UK from midnight last night has angered some people. They say it’s political and pointless. They say the small French Omicron level is a statistical illusion based on low/slow Fr identification of variants. 3/12
There is truth in such claims. France HAS decided not to invest in mass variant-spotting – unlike UK and DK. No more than 1 in 4 positive Fr tests are investigated. Fr anyway tests less than UK. All the same, wider evidence suggests the big O is NOT YET here in a big way. 4/12
The rise in case and acute cases numbers in France is slowing. In Britain, DK and Belgium, there is a renewed surge in the pandemic, driven by Omicron. There is no sign of that YET in France. Tests are less numerous in Fr. But that’s not new. It’s the trend that matters. 5/12
The decision to close Fr-UK border to all but Fr citizens and residents, truck drivers etc was intended to gain a few days and spare Fr an O surge during Xmas/NY hols. Why not DK/B? Good question. But it's tricky politically/physically to close land borders within the EU. 6/12
All the same it was foolish of health minister Oliver Véran to boast yesterday that Fr has “slowed” Omicron and then quote the official figure of 347 cases. Virologist Bruno Lina reckons the real figure may be 3,000 and rising fast. In UK it’s 15,000 and rising 3,000 a day. 7/12
Should we all be scared? The provisional evidence from SA, where it was first spotted, is that Omicron is more contagious but far milder in its effect than Delta. Omicron could therefore be A Good Thing. Evidence from UK is less conclusive. We should know more in a few days. 8/12
Yesterday PM Castex announced new measures but nothing immediate. The health pass will be tightened from Jan to become a vax pass. No more access to fun or travel with a negative Covid test alone. Also from Jan, the waiting period for a 3rd jab will fall from 5 months to 4. 9/12
The booster roll-out is booming. There were 874,678 3rd jabs yesterday (inc.one for me, hooray!). This is a new record. “All jabs” in 24hrs hit 957,525 – also a record. More than 18.3m people have been 3rd jabbed. The Xmas target of 30m will easily be met. 10/12
Other stats: Patients in acute care were 2,901 last night, 16% up in a week, compared to 21% last week. Deaths average 141 a day – up 17% after 44% last week.
BUT the incidence rate is now 520 (cases 100,000 people/7 days) the highest in Fr since the pandemic began. 11/12
BUT the incidence rate is now 520 (cases 100,000 people/7 days) the highest in Fr since the pandemic began. 11/12
Hang in there.
12/12
12/12
20m not 3om
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