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Tony Yates Profile picture
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18 Dec, 6 tweets, 1 min read
The winter wave melted the Frost!
I’m sure this is bollocks, and he is resigning because he suspects he would be pushed to back down over the NI protocol.
John Redwood to replace him is my tip 😀
What will the successor to Frost use as the icebreaker? #notseenthatone
As Frost’s departure proves, politics moves at a glacial pace until it doesn’t.
Do we have Cummings’ take on Frost’s going yet?

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More from @t0nyyates

Tony Yates Profile picture
20 Dec
So, no lockdown yet. There's a legitimate debate to be had about what needs to be done and when. If, like me, you think that we ought to have moved, and that eventually the govt do the right thing [more on this in a minute], this just means worse is coming soon.
ie, we are eventually going to have to lock down for more and for longer than we otherwise would. This is for two reasons.
First, locking down later allows the epidemic to spread more, and it therefore takes longer/stronger set of measures to reduce the actual flow of cases to the target flow.
Read 5 tweets
Tony Yates Profile picture
20 Dec
@Samfr @iainmartin1 @DPJHodges There’s nothing wrong with what SAGE did, but that tweet is not really correct as it stands.
@Samfr @iainmartin1 @DPJHodges Forget the 'complexity' for a moment. That is a side issue. Think of the model, for simplicity, as y=y_1+x+shocks. y is infections, '-1' denotes one period before, x is a policy [like permitted contacts], shocks are good and bad luck.
@Samfr @iainmartin1 @DPJHodges SAGE are asking: what will happen to y, for different x's, ie different policy settings for permitted contacts. Try some different x's, and you get different time paths for y. When you see a time path for y you like, then you note down the x's and legislate for them.
Read 10 tweets
Tony Yates Profile picture
18 Dec
If I was an enterprising chair of an extreme Tory whatsapp group I would consider choreographing performative digital rage and an expulsion to try to emphasise the point.
I guess you will have to take my word on that one as this claim is unlikely to be put to the test.
Wait till they hear how angry we are in this group!
Everyone is already saying that they won't take any notice.
OK so let's have an argument and then someone leak it.
Been there done that.
OK let's have an argument, throw out a fake Boris supporter, and then leak it.
OK let's go.
Read 4 tweets
Tony Yates Profile picture
14 Dec
Objections to vaccine passports often stress liberty. But society infringes our liberties all the time to help the collective good. Our access to weapons. What we can do with them. Our ability to drive cars or ride motorbikes or pilot planes. Our rights to privacy.
Vaccine passports should be weighed on their merits. Harm caused to those who feel compelled to get vaccines who wouldn't do it otherwise, or have to avoid venues and services they previously had access to, vs the suffering alleviated by suppressing covid.
The suffering has many components: the regret an unvaccinated person and their loved ones have later when hospitalized or facing death. The illness and death of others fostered by less impeded spread of covid; and the fear of it. Leaning more on other tools like lockdowns.
Read 37 tweets
Tony Yates Profile picture
12 Dec
Exactly right. Johnson takes the judgement that the 'tidal wave' doesn't justify another lockdown, but he wants to scare people out of hospitality to reduce infections, without compensating businesses.
He wants to look like he is taking action, distract from the parties topic, and do this without antagonising the Covid Research Group who are anti-lockdowns, which they think are 'socialist'. As @help_its_louis remarks, in some ways we are back to the start of the pandemic.
Sadly, very important economic and public health decisions, are highly politicized. Not that these decisions shouldn't be taken by those we elect. But that they shouldn't be coloured by the decision maker's political fortunes.
Read 9 tweets
Tony Yates Profile picture
10 Dec
Another great column from perhaps the best writer without a column.
One thing I might add is that there is an ideological angle to this. Boris Johnson is not really a conservative. The party tolerate this on pragmatic grounds Provided he is a personal electoral asset.
Big state dirigism can be swallowed if it is going to win. But if not nostalgia for low tax conservatism might reassert itself.
Read 4 tweets

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