So, no lockdown yet. There's a legitimate debate to be had about what needs to be done and when. If, like me, you think that we ought to have moved, and that eventually the govt do the right thing [more on this in a minute], this just means worse is coming soon.
ie, we are eventually going to have to lock down for more and for longer than we otherwise would. This is for two reasons.
First, locking down later allows the epidemic to spread more, and it therefore takes longer/stronger set of measures to reduce the actual flow of cases to the target flow.
Second, the spreading of the epidemic begins to erode the effectiveness of test and trace [eg straining test capacity], requiring more restrictions to replace its suppressive effect on the virus.
By 'the right thing' I mean that the govt eventually set about trying to limit the flow of cases to prevent NHS overwhelm, even if they do so later than was optimal, generating more cases and death than they needed to. It's the right thing to do conditional on having cocked up.
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