The propaganda about Ankara’s drones, much of which cannot be verified at all, is amazing because as far as I know, no other armed drone programs or loitering munitions out out all these supposed videos and lists of supposed success. The only way to measure is that way
For instance, ok I’m interested in any confirmed successes Ankara’s drones had, whether it is supposedly striking hundreds of armed vehicles in Syria or Armenian vehicles…but how can any of it be confirmed. It’s usually just reports of Blitzkrieg like success at face value
Other drones, like loitering munitions also used against Armenian forces are relegated to non-existent because no one bothers to quantify their use or success…it’s like a footnote (“and there were other drones”)…
Similarly while a lot is known about US drone strikes, mostly critical reports on civilians being hit, I’d like to see the other side of the reports of supposed success. There were clearly a lot of strikes using them; let’s compare.
It seems to me only then can one seriously discuss how successful the Ankara drones are; clearly Ankara wants to sell them. But that’s a good reason to be suspicious. Because the US wasn’t doing drone ops to sell Reapers abroad; and other drone makers don’t generally brag
It’s a uniquely Ankara things to leak reports or openly put out reports bragging about their armed drones used on a half dozen battlefields. And oddly the industry of armed drone critics are silent so there is almost no controversy
No one tabulates for instance civilian casualties among the drone strikes by Ankara or those it sells to…but it can’t be reasonable to conclude that somehow the U.S. only makes mistakes when it comes to armed drone strikes
Ankara exists in this like alternate universe….free from any critical reporting and just spoon feeding propaganda to media about the amazing Blitzkrieg of drones…
It’s entirely possible the Ankara drone program performed decently against actors that mostly lack any air defense, kind of like how the Predator and Reapers were used…but it’s worth being skeptical of any report about these successes
Those arguing the Ankara drones somehow transform war….umm there were armed drones for two decades now used by other countries (mostly the US)…if you’re ignoring all the other drone manufacturers and loitering munitions from Israel, Iran, China, etc…it’s not really serious
Sure, there should be reports just at least look a bit deeper, be a bit skeptical and give some context. Don’t pretend like Ankara invented drone warfare…which tbh is just a marketing plan for the drones…and the market is big, growing and countries are running to get them
And yes I wrote a book on this called #DroneWars, so I have an interest in the topic of the drone arms race amazon.com/Drone-Wars-Pio…

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More from @sfrantzman

19 Dec
🧵Please not the “Turkey could help confront Russia in Ukraine”….the same fantasy narrative that claimed Turkey would confront Iran-Russia in Syria so US should give Turkey eastern Syria…and Turkey will confront Russia so its conflict with Armenia should be supported; nonsense
First of all you should never empower one vicious authoritarian regime that crushes media in order to confront some other adversary….second Ankara is buying S-400s, it is a partner of Moscow. It’s not confronting it. It has its own allies like Azerbaijan…but not NATO, US etc
the fantasy of: Ankara will confront Iran-Russia “so let’s support-ignore its crackdown” on minorities….airstrikes on Sinjar, trafficking Syrians to Libya….same old story, it always ends with having to back Ankara extremism…so “hopefully” in the future Ankara will fight 🇮🇷 🇷🇺
Read 7 tweets
18 Dec
Our version of Murgh Makhani at #chezfrantzman, with cashews and hot green pepper sprinkled on at end.

Process:

Sauce: Cut up 15 medium tomatoes and fry them with butter, 2 cracked cinnamon sticks, three bay leafs, 5 cardamon cloves, cinnamon, nutmeg, salt, dash of paprika
or Kashmiri chili powder. One sliced green chili without seeds. 12 cashews. Sliced ginger and chopped garlic. Cook down for 15 minutes covered. Then blend this and strain and return the liquid to the fire. Add Sliced up 10 garlic cloves and 2 inches of ginger crushed into a paste
Add this to the tomato sauce.

For the chicken marinade: Chicken breasts or chicken with bones, a whole lemon squeezed over the chicken, then salt dash, paprika or Kashmiri chili powder, place in fridge. 200-300 grams of yogurt, garlic/ginger paste, garam masala powder, salt
Read 6 tweets
17 Dec
Although some people who oppose Ankara’s current ruling regime think that collapse of the lira is a development that shows how bad the regime is…I wonder if this has actually become regime policy now. Erode the lira, create a crises, concentrate power, get opposition to migrate
Other regimes destroyed their currency and country and cling to power, Venezuela is one example; Iran is another, and there are more. A currency crises will erode the middle class and moderates stoke extremism, accelerate concentration of economic power around regime cronies
Fascism rose from economic crisis. Ankara is one of the most far-right xenophobic, authoritarian regimes in the world so it’s path is not without consequences. Migration crisis, war and other things can occur next.
Read 7 tweets
17 Dec
I think today is a morning for pancakes Image
Here they are 🥞 🍅 ☕️ 🍁 syrup Image
I like V8 tomato juice with a dash of lime, Himalayan salt, ground pepper, Worcestershire and Frank’s hot sauce. I know it sounds like a Bloody Mary…
Read 5 tweets
16 Dec
I decided to watch that Netflix 'Win the Wilderness' show....tbh I grew up like that in Maine...it was fun watching but a lot of it seemed like a normal week where I grew up at Little Lyford deep in the Maine Woods.
That’s where so grew up. Now an AMC camp Image
That’s my Dad and I going back to where I was a kid in the 1980s ImageImageImageImage
Read 9 tweets
15 Dec
December 17, 2015; Sharfadin, Iraq.
Near Snune
The road from Rabiah
Read 6 tweets

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