🧵Please not the “Turkey could help confront Russia in Ukraine”….the same fantasy narrative that claimed Turkey would confront Iran-Russia in Syria so US should give Turkey eastern Syria…and Turkey will confront Russia so its conflict with Armenia should be supported; nonsense
First of all you should never empower one vicious authoritarian regime that crushes media in order to confront some other adversary….second Ankara is buying S-400s, it is a partner of Moscow. It’s not confronting it. It has its own allies like Azerbaijan…but not NATO, US etc
the fantasy of: Ankara will confront Iran-Russia “so let’s support-ignore its crackdown” on minorities….airstrikes on Sinjar, trafficking Syrians to Libya….same old story, it always ends with having to back Ankara extremism…so “hopefully” in the future Ankara will fight 🇮🇷 🇷🇺
It’s just nonsense. Ankara has its own trajectory of foreign policy untethered from US or NATO or western goals. Sometimes it may have issues with Russia or Iran, sometimes it sells its drones to Ukraine….but there is no 1913 Realism strategy “geopolitics” Cold War here
The fantasy of Kissinger-era stratagems to get Turkey to confront Russia or “use” Ankara as a tool won’t happen again….Ankara has moved on, it’s on its own path…it won’t be a tool or even partner of convenience “against Iran-Russia”
There is no scenario where Ankara will get involved in a Ukraine-Russia clash…or clash with Iran for now…WHY? Because Ankara’s economy is also suffering, it has deals with Russia like TurkStream…it needs Caucasus and Russia and S-400….it can’t risk anything
And more than anything Ankara likely feeds these stories to western media just to get things but it is not a tool and is running circles around western countries usually on this narrative and working both sides. It’s very smart…western “geopolitics” worshippers don’t get it
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