Before you swear at Joe Manchin, understand that he:
- Is the only Democrat in Congress from his state.
- Represents a state that hasn’t gone blue since 1996.
- Represents a state that Trump won by 38 points in 2020 and in which Trump won every single county twice.
- Was always conservative. He didn’t do a switcheroo. He never pretended to be in favor of a massive social spending bill.
- Voted to impeach Trump twice and voted in favor of the January 6th Committee.
- Is up for re-election in 2024.
- Is the reason that McConnell is not in charge. Manchin is the only Democrat on the planet that could have won re-election in West Virginia even as Trump, hugely popular in WV, campaigned for his opponent.
He’s a “no.” Okay. That’s the way it is.
And realize that something this big usually doesn’t get passed when there is zero margin for error. Democrats voted against Social Security and Medicare too. But there were 68 of them in 1935 and 1965, not just 50.
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Personally, I think one of the worst things to happen to the Democrats in 2021 was when the Senate Parliamentarian said that they could pass more than one bill through the reconciliation process.
Why?
Because at that moment, they seem to have become obsessed with stuffing everything (including some very good and very popular ideas such as Universal Pre-K) into one mammoth piece of legislation. The kind that never gets passed by one party with no margin for internal dissent.
If you look at the massive pieces of legislation that have been passed over the last century, almost never is it done by one party working without any cooperation from the other party, in a situation in which even one "NO" vote is one too many.
Here are the states that had the highest INCREASE in COVID deaths per 100,000 population when you compare 2020 with 2021 so far (through December 20th):
1) Oklahoma
2020: 63 COVID deaths per 100k
2021: 226 COVID deaths per 100k
2) West Virginia
2020: 75 COVID deaths per 100k
2021: 215 COVID deaths per 100k
3) Alabama
2020: 96 COVID deaths per 100k
2021: 229 COVID deaths per 100k
4) Kentucky
2020: 66 COVID deaths per 100k
2021: 198 COVID deaths per 100k
5) Wyoming
2020: 76 COVID deaths per 100k
2021: 184 COVID deaths per 100k
6) Montana
2020: 89 COVID deaths per 100k
2021: 177 COVID deaths per 100k
7) Florida
2020: 101 COVID deaths per 100k
2021: 188 COVID deaths per 100k
Have you ever been to West Virginia? Ever looked at the election results there? Ever seen the polls? Know anybody who has ever been there? Do you think the people there think about politics just like you do?
Please get a grip.
Let’s play out the scenarios:
Scenario A: Dems launch a holy war on Manchin right now.
1) Manchin then switches parties. Dems need him more than he needs them.
2) Mitch McConnell snatches the gavel from the Democrats.
3) You yell “this isn’t fair!”
Scenario B: Dems primary Manchin, assuming he runs, and miraculously win.
1) The Dem nominee gets crushed in the General Election. Like, crater in the ground crushed. Amy McGrath crushed.
2) The GOP has an even better chance of taking the Senate.
The United States currently ranks #19 in the world in terms of the share of the population which has had two vaccinations against COVID.
This is not the government’s fault. The vaccines are readily available and anyone can easily get them. It’s OUR fault. ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinat…
Countries that have a higher percentage of its population vaccinated than the US does (60.95%):
UAE (90.28%)
Portugal (89.02%)
Singapore (87.00%)
Chile (85.40%)
Cuba (83.75%)
South Korea (82.00%)
Spain (80.82%)
Cambodia (80.20%)
Japan (78.00%)
Canada (76.93%)
Uruguay (76.60%)
Countries that have a higher percentage of its population vaccinated than the US does (60.95%, continued):
China (74.53%)
Italy (73.63%)
France (71.78%)
Germany (69.66%)
UK (68.92%)
Brazil (66.12%)
Thailand (63.18%)
USA (60.95%)
Another thing it would be smart for the Democrats to realize now on #BuildBackBetter:
This is NOT the time for them to publicly start fighting and insulting each other again. That’s what helped get their polls so low and their prospects for next year further endangered.
No aspect of them calling each other names is going to help any of them.
They tried to do some really big things with zero margin for error. Which is not historically how really big things get done. Democrats voted against Social Security in 1935 and against Medicare in 1965.
But the difference between those times and now is that in 1935 and 1965, they had overwhelming majorities in the Senate. They didn’t need every single member. And you usually don’t get every single member. Even on things that almost everyone now sees as a good idea in retrospect.
Personally, I think it would be smarter to break the #BuildBackBetter bill into smaller bills, which can all individually be passed. Why? Because not enough people even know what is in BBB. If you make them smaller, they will know.
It’s easy for some leaders to vote against Build Back Better. It might be harder for them to specifically vote against Child Care. Or Universal Pre-K. Or for Medicare for hearing. Or for Home Care.
In theory, it might even make it politically harder for Republicans to vote no.
Even as I typed this, I had to look up what was in the bill, because I didn’t remember. And I pay a lot of attention to this stuff. What does “Build Back Better” mean to people who don’t pay attention to politics?