1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide To What Manchin’s Formal Decision to Oppose BBB Means
2) Here are some key points about the formal announcement Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) made today on Fox News Sunday with Bret Baier regarding his formal opposition to the social spending bill.
3) As I have noted, the Democrats’ legislative eyes were bigger than their parliamentary stomach. They were trying to pass this massive bill with the narrowest of margins in the House and Senate.
4) Democrats, despite what the polling says about individual programs in the bill, lacked the legislative mandate to approve a bill of this magnitude.

They needed EVERYTHING to line up. And finally something didn’t in the person of Joe Manchin.
5) This came down to the math, the math, the math. The parliamentary math didn’t align on this one.
6) Frankly, Democrats already threaded the needle on their other big bills this year: the partisan, $1.9 trillion COVID bill in March and passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill in the summer and fall.

The social spending bill may have been a bridge too far.
7) There will now be an internecine fight in the Democratic party with progressives not only torching Manchin - but House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). Both gave progressives in their caucuses a lot of leeway.
8) But that move inordinately raised expectations. The two leaders truly didn’t temper this very well.

This could amplify talk about a need for new leadership.
9) Don’t forget that Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) rolled Pelosi earlier this fall. Jayapal threatened to withhold progressive votes for the infrastructure bill.
10) It turns out that Jayapal held the cards that time and Pelosi didn’t - even though there was an accord later to pass the bill in the House.

The progressive base will be apoplectic. They argued they may not turn out in the midterms if Democrats didn’t deliver on this bill.
11) That said, you cannot alter Congressional physics. It was always a struggle to pass this bill in the first place - no matter what the base wanted.
12) Is it possible Democrats could now break the bill up into smaller, more palatable portions. Of course. But who knows what would pass there.
13) Legislation is like wine. Only ever so often does the legislative weather cooperate in such harmony that lawmakers can make a big, muscular legislative Bordeaux. That’s what happened with Obamacare in 2010 and tax reform in 2017. But good legislative weather is often elusive.
14) That’s why lawmakers are left to make table wine most years - if they have a vintage at all.

As to the issue about just putting the bill on the floor and letting it fail:

That is a political hornet’s nest.
15) Putting this bill on the floor via budget reconciliation (which sidesteps a filibuster…remember Democrats chose this option because they lacked 60 votes to clear a filibuster)..
16) ...would subject vulnerable Democratic senators facing competitive races in 2022 to take tough votes on weaponized-GOP amendments during a budget vote-a-rama.

Liberal Democrats may relish the opportunity for Manchin to vote on the record against the bill.
17) But such a tactic would ignite a firestorm among different factions of Democrats. The only side which would prevail in this battle are Republicans.
18) They would achieve their goal of getting Democrats to vote - on the record - on a bunch of controversial items they don’t want to touch. This is only amplified by the fact that the bill is going nowhere as is.
19) Then, there is the problem of moderate House Democrats who walked the plank and voted yes on a bill which died in the Senate. These moderate Democrats are on the record now and the NRCC will boomerang this vote against vulnerable, moderate Democrats.
20) This could also escalate the rate of retirements by House Democrats.

A similar scenario unfolded in 2009. Pelosi pushed a vote on the controversial “cap and trade” climate bill.
21) The House passed the bill (even with some GOP votes). But the measure never saw the light of day in the Senate.

These moderate Democrats are likely to be beside themselves.
22) There could even be some activists who will push for Democrats to throw Manchin out of the party or strip him of his committee chairmanship. Such an approach may have had legs in 2008 when some Democrats wanted to bounce Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) from the party
23) Any move to make Manchin too uncomfortable could mean that the Senate flips in mid-stream to GOP control.

That’s what happened in the 50/50 Senate of 2001. Republicans leaned too much on Sen. Jim Jeffords (I-VT). Jeffords abandoned the GOP & flipped control to the Dems
24) Democrats will need to handle Manchin with kid gloves. What frustrates the left is the fact that the party is more progressive than moderate - and they can’t approve this ambitious agenda.
25) Liberals control the politics in the party. But as long as Manchin is around, moderates can dictate the policy. And, with basically a split Congress, perhaps it isn’t a surprise that the big bill which passed was something in the middle: a bipartisan infrastructure plan.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Chad Pergram

Chad Pergram Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ChadPergram

19 Dec
A) WH’s Psaki: Senator Manchin’s comments this morning on FOX are at odds with his discussions this week with the President, with White House staff, and with his own public utterances.
B) Psaki: Weeks ago, Senator Manchin committed to the President, at his home in Wilmington, to support the Build Back Better framework that the President then subsequently announced. Senator Manchin pledged repeatedly to negotiate on finalizing that framework “in good faith.”
C) Psaki: On Tuesday of this week, Senator Manchin came to the White House and submitted—to the President, in person, directly—a written outline for a Build Back Better bill that was the same size and scope as the President’s framework, and covered many of the same priorities.
Read 16 tweets
19 Dec
A) Sanders: Sen. Joe Manchin wants to vote against the Build Back Better Act, he should have the opportunity to do so with a floor vote as soon as the Senate returns.
B) Sanders: He should have to explain to West Virginians and the American people why he doesn’t have the courage to stand up to powerful special interests and lower prescription drug costs; expand Medicare to cover dental, hearing and eyeglasses
C) Sanders: He should also have to explain why he is not prepared to demand that millionaires and large corporations start paying their fair share of taxes.
Read 4 tweets
17 Dec
1) Progressive Caucus Chair Jayapal: Delaying passage of Build Back Better until 2022 would have immediate and devastating consequences. It would place the monthly expanded Child Tax Credit at risk, plunging millions into poverty.
2) Jayapal: Progressives have worked diligently with the White House and Senate over the better part of this year to set up for this moment. The version of Build Back Better we passed out of the House was agreed to by nearly every Senator caucusing with the Democrats —
3) Jayapal: (W)e sent it to the upper chamber based on the President’s promise that he could deliver the 50 Senators needed to make it law. We trust the President to follow through on that promise, and that he and the Senate will continue working until he can.
Read 6 tweets
17 Dec
A) Some context here on the Senate Parliamentarian ruling against inclusion of some immigration components in the social spending bill. 

This is essentially the political version of “The Democrats and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day.”
B) This is a major blow to the left. One of several gut punches today:
C) To wit:
The President formally pulled the plug on BBB for the year. 
Democrats have gotten nowhere on altering the filibuster to pass voting rights in the Senate. 
Then, the Parliamentarian ruled the immigration provisions out of order for the social spending package
Read 6 tweets
16 Dec
1) Biden: I had a productive call with Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Schumer earlier today. I briefed them on the most recent discussions that my staff and I have held with Senator Manchin about Build Back Better.
2) Biden: In these discussions, Senator Manchin has reiterated his support for Build Back Better funding at the level of the framework plan I announced in September. I believe that we will bridge our differences and advance the Build Back Better plan
3) Biden: My team and I are having ongoing discussions with Senator Manchin; that work will continue next week. It takes time to finalize these agreements, prepare the legislative changes, and finish all the parliamentary and procedural steps needed to enable a Senate vote.
Read 5 tweets
16 Dec
1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Fate of Build Back Better and Voting Rights in the Senate P

Chances for Democrats to approve the Build Back Better deal are dimming before Christmas.
2) Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has said for weeks the Senate would approve the measure before December 25. Schumer didn’t say that Wednesday.

Schumer doesn’t have the votes - even to launch a debate on the bill. They are running out of track.
3) And, the bill isn’t complete. It’s still undergoing the behind the scenes “Byrd Bath.” This is a mysterious, offstage process where the Senate Parliamentarian decides what is in and what is out of the bill - in order to qualify for special budget rules.
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(