Everything Manchin cared about was in BIF. While the WH never had much leverage over Manchin, that’s all the more reason to cultivate what little leverage existed. Giving it all away, for free, up front was a strategic mistake. The day Biden endorsed BIF was the day he lost BBB.
The argument that they were linked was a valiant effort, but too clever by half. When the WH rushed to calm GOP outrage and issue a statement walking back Biden’s characterization of the bills as linked, it was a tell that when push came to shove, they would move BIF separately.
The most optimistic take is that Manchin’s comments leave the door open for breaking up BBB and moving some smaller bills. If so, the decision to do an omnibus was a mistake. Even in this “small bites” scenario, it’d be better to have the BIF substance available as sweeteners.
The issue that suffers most from de-Iinkage is climate. There is a natural linkage between transportation/infrastructure policy and climate policy, on both substance and process. Letting the transpo/infrastructure pieces move solo was devastating to prospects for climate policy.
The gamble would’ve been betting that even if everything fell apart, you could’ve still salvaged most or all of the substance of BIF at a later date, maybe on a party-line vote. Essentially you’d be wagering the value of the “bipartisan” label against the potential for more meat.
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