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Adam Jentleson 🎈 Profile picture
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27 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Democrats are handing Trump the opportunity to run on popular economic policies that they could not get done. Policies that target the suburbs.

"I alone can fix it."
I’m surprised at those who think Trump won’t do this. In 2016, Trump ran on popular, traditionally Democratic policies like protecting Medicare and Social Security. This was key to his appeal as a different kind of Republican. As POTUS, he actually signed a paid leave bill. 👇
Of course he’ll run on racism. But Jim Crow was propped up in part by showering whites with government largesse. Many of the biggest New Dealers were also the biggest white supremacists. Richard Russell created the school lunch program! MAGA = Racism + promised material benefits.
The replies keep coming! Folks, it’s a safe prediction to say Trump will run on paid leave in 2024 because he ran on it in 2016 and signed a bill on it as POTUS. MAGA = racism plus promises of material benefits. If we ignore the latter, we fail to grasp the scope of the threat.

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More from @AJentleson

Adam Jentleson 🎈 Profile picture
12 Oct
@mattyglesias Not convinced! Most of those things are popular. I’m sure non donors support unpopular things too. But to me the larger issue is that, as I understand it, one of the core points of popularism/Shorism (and one that I value) is to elevate the importance of class conflict, and… 1/
@mattyglesias … I guarantee you that, within the Democratic infrastructure, one of the most powerful forces pushing back against any kind of class conflict narrative within the Democratic Party is the donor class. When we would push a narrative that amped up any kind of class conflict… 2/
@mattyglesias … we’d get a barrage of calls from donors: “why do you have to use such divisive rhetoric?” “We are the party of uniting, not dividing” “I though it was supposed to be, when they go low, we go high?” “Don’t bash the rich, people aspire to be rich… like me!” Which is to say… 3/
Read 5 tweets
Adam Jentleson 🎈 Profile picture
7 Oct
This is a great illustration of the absurdity of the modern-day “filibuster.” It’s critical to remember that the Senate only requires a majority for bills to pass. Yes, even today. It was created as a majority-rule institution & existed that way well into the 20th century. But…
In 1917, Senate Rule 22 was introduced, which allowed a supermajority to invoke “cloture” to cut off debate, and move a bill to a majority-rule, final vote. Rule 22 was intended as a last-ditch means of *ending* talking filibusters. Before it, there was no way to cut off debate.
Fast forward 100 years’ worth of procedural & cultural changes to today’s Senate. Now, instead of standing on the floor, any senator can invoke Rule 22 simply by raising an objection. Then you have to invoke cloture (60 votes) before you can pass the bill on a majority-rule vote.
Read 6 tweets
Adam Jentleson 🎈 Profile picture
30 Sep
Big news. What's so striking about the opposition to Sinema is that it's making the jump to the core of the party. She is blocking and gutting Biden's agenda for no good reason, hurting all Democrats - from Biden to everyone up in 2022 including her fellow Arizonan, Mark Kelly.
This is not the usual crowd! What Sinema is doing will have damaging policy consequences, but it is also bad politics. It is bad for Biden *and* bad for moderates, who will be the first to lose in 2022 if Democrats have a bad election night. I mean, when you’ve lost Third Way…😆
Sinema seems to have miscalculated politically, tanking her numbers among Democrats. Here’s a 🧵 from the summer on a @DataProgress poll, which is squarely in line with others. Her defenders point to her relatively high numbers with Rs. But here’s the problem with that…
Read 4 tweets
Adam Jentleson 🎈 Profile picture
2 Sep
To pass abortion restriction laws, Rs need a trifecta. If Dems do not reform the filibuster and pass voting rights/democracy reforms, they are increasing the chances Rs win a trifecta in 2024. Then, Rs can nuke the filibuster (on any topic) and pass abortion restrictions anyway.
Will abortion be the topic that Republicans nuke the filibuster for? Probably not. Will they nuke it on some other topic, and then pass abortion restrictions via a majority? Probably. Keep in mind that like House Rs, Senate Rs are increasingly radicalized. politico.com/news/2021/08/3…
If you’re banking on Susan Collins to save Dems by stopping Republicans from nuking the filibuster if and when they ever get a trifecta, man, I don’t know what to tell you. The 2024 Senate map is so brutal for Dems that if Rs win a trifecta they probably won’t even need her vote.
Read 4 tweets
Adam Jentleson 🎈 Profile picture
26 Jul
The news in this interview is that Warner supports reforming the filibuster for voting rights, which is what matters. But given the Dem impulse to self-flagellate, along with the nagging worry that Republicans will do bad stuff if we use our power, let's unpack this argument.
When Dems changed the rules in 2013, Obama was facing unprecedented obstruction. Prior to Obama, 86 presidential nominees had been filibustered. Obama alone faced 82 filibusters. Take that in: about half of all filibusters against nominees in US history were waged against Obama.
After Dems changed the rules, we pushed through a wave of judicial confirmations. If Dems had not changed the rules, there would be fewer Obama judges on the bench today - which means there would have been more vacancies for Trump and McConnell to fill. washingtonpost.com/blogs/in-the-l…
Read 8 tweets
Adam Jentleson 🎈 Profile picture
23 Jul
The BIF is at a critical moment and Dems have to be careful not to get played. It has spiraled from “we’ll be ready Monday” to “Ok maybe not Monday” to the fact that *transit* remains unresolved in an infrastructure package, to Coons suggesting the BIF drop transit altogether. 1/
First, caveat: it’s (often) darkest before the dawn. These kinds of deals can see a lot of last-minute squabbling before getting finalized. But the size of this group, intended as a show of force, makes it particularly unwieldy. So, this could all be last-minute jockeying. Or…
I have a habit (that I would love to shake one day) of looking at these things through the lens of, what does McConnell want? Ostensibly, he has been in the background. But on a high-profile issue that could define this session, he's probably not actually in the background.
Read 14 tweets

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