📍DOMINANT IN 2 WEEKS—to overtake Delta, all it took was half a month for spiking #Omicron cases (via SGTF proxy test) to surge from <1% on Dec 1st to 50.8% of all #COVID19 in Washington state on Dec 14th (from @UWVirology). Likely same worldwide!
2) Let this sink in—worldwide cumulative #Omicron spiked up ⬆️ 31% in just **one day**. You can try to delude yourself that a slightly “milder” virus won’t kill many people — but only if you lie to yourself about how exponential math works.
3) Mini lesson how exponential #Omicron math works—even if we hypothetically set Omicron extreme at 1/10th as lethal—but just merely 2x more contagious (ignoring it’s likely 4-6x)—you will ultimately have way more deaths even if 90% milder but more contagious—EXPONENTIAL MATH!👀
4) our leaders often act too late (think climate change)… and try to delude themselves it isn’t surging exponentially whenever it has been since the beginning. Boosters work, but “Chasing an exponential” trend with linear measures won’t be enough. Fast blanket measures needed!
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📝A note—Many say racist things to me—& some folks don’t like I share precautionary/doom-y COVID data. Some call me a CCP spy, pharma shill, attention seeking personal brand builder… But I’m none of those. Who I really am:🧵
2) I have no publicist, and unlike many “Twitter docs” during the pandemic, I have never paid for one. I have no website, merch store, or YouTube. I only recently started a mini substack—but I barely use it—& I plan to donate any incidental amount I get from it to COVID research.
3) When I tweet—what I think of is all the lives we could save. All the hospitalization suffering. All the PTSD endured by overworked doctors & nurses. All the long COVID sufferers. Sometimes I’m a misunderstood scientist—but that’s okay if it saves lives in a pandemic.
BREAKING—First #Omicron US death in Texas—in an unvaccinated man **reinfected** after previously having #COVID19. New convalescent blood🩸 studies of survivors (of Alpha, Beta, or Delta variants) show little to no neutralization defense against Omicron. Please #Vaccinate& Boost🧵
2) We do not believe Omicron overall is that much milder if at all than Delta. Keep in mind that Delta is 2-4x more severe than original Wuhan 1.0 strain. A UK 🇬🇧 study found severity is not significantly lower in terms of % needing hospitalization.
3) Show us the study of almost zero neutralization against #Omicron after previously surviving infections of Alpha, Beta, and Delta? Here you go. Full study linked below.
📍JUST IN—the extremely contagious Omicron variant is now the dominant version of new coronavirus cases in the United States. #Omicron now accounts for 73% of new cases, according to CDC. Just 2 weeks ago? …1%. A weeks ago? 13%. Worried about Christmas 🎄 nytimes.com/live/2021/12/2…
2) Don’t be like UK… this is what is now happening to children 0-5 in 🇬🇧 — all time record hospitalizations and surging 39% in one week 👇
3) in contrast to Omicron’s 2 week rampage from 1% to 73% dominance ➡️ it took Delta over 7 weeks to go from 1% to just 54%. This is why many estimate Omicron to be 3-6x more transmissible. (Repost, sorry for earlier typo)
⚠️FALSE NEGATIVES—The FDA has identified **3** COVID-19 molecular tests that are not able to detect the #Omicron variant & warned that diagnostics from 📌Applied DNA Sciences, 📌Meridian Bioscience & 📌Tide Laboratories will return false negative results. medtechdive.com/news/fda-updat…
2) FDA noted on its website that Tide's DTPM COVID-19 RT-PCR test is currently being performed in the U.S. by more than 30 laboratories, providing the names and cities where the labs are located, but added that the diagnostic "is not believed to be used for high volume testing."
3) In the case of Meridian Bioscience's Revogene SARS-CoV-2 test, FDA said that the company has not yet distributed the diagnostic and does not intend to do so inside or outside the U.S. until the issue is resolved.
📍HIGHER HOSPITALIZATION & DEATHS VS FIRST WAVE—Comparing #Omicron in South Africa🇿🇦 epicenter versus its first wave in 2020 (~Wuhan 1.0 strain), we see Omicron has higher hospitalizations, similar ICU rate, and higher #COVID19 deaths than the 1st wave. 🧵 ceri.africa/publications/
A new influenza strain that is “current vaccine resistant” is surging in Brazil 🇧🇷, where it has already begun to cause deaths. Oy, we don’t need this right now. poder360.com.br/brasil/novo-su…
2) “the flu epidemic in Rio de Janeiro has a worrisome component. Among the variants of the influenza virus circulating in the city, there is a recent mutation of the H3N2 that had not yet been identified in Brazil.” riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/ri…
3) “The variant is provisionally named H3N2 Darwin, because it was first reported in city of Darwin, Australia🇦🇺. "It is a mutation of the virus circulating in the Northern Hemisphere that has reached Brazil". @fiocruz_en working on new flu vaccine for it. riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/ri…