Strangely, on Russia & Ukraine, Washington is divided between Putin appeasers (worst of all Tucker Carlson) & realistic knowledgeable Russia specialists, such as @AmbDanFried @JohnEdHerbst @ARVershbow @SpecRepUkraine @general_ben & the NSC seem to turn to the appeasers.
So far, the White House has failed to formulate its own agenda on Russia. @McFaul has presented the best proposals I have seen so far. Also @Nigelgd1, @KeirGiles & @john_sipher have argued well. What should the US agenda be?
1. No more negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine at the table = no more Putin-Biden summits to reward Putin for aggression!
The US should demand that the OSCE is being restored as the main frum for Russian-Western negotiations.
2. The US must set its own agenda demanding from Russia:
In line with the Helsinki Final Act of 1975, “The participating States regard as inviolable all one another's frontiers."
Russia must respect the borders of Ukraine, Georgia & Moldova & restore their full sovereignty!
3. In November 1990, the OSCE adopted the Charter of Paris for a New Europe. The many signatures committed “to build, consolidate and strengthen democracy as the only system of government of our nations” as well as human rights and the rule of law.
Demand Russian compliance!
4. The 3rd basket in the Helsinki Final Act was on human rights. But now Memorial counts at least 410 political prisoners in Russia. Consequently, Memorial has been labeled a “foreign agent,” which means “enemy of the people.” Putin is Russia's real enemy of the people.
5. The US should protests against Putin's gross violations of human rights at home and abroad. Alexei Navalny, Russia’s greatest present hero and political prisoner, has delivered a list of 35 top Russian collaborators who should be sanctioned. Do so, systematically!
6. The ultimate question to the United States and its allies is: Why talk to a party who has developed lies into his modus vivendi and who violates just about all international agreements that it has concluded? No word stated by Putin is worth the paper it is written upon.
7. The time has come to consider declaring Putin's Russia a rogue state or terrorist state, just like Iran and North Korea. In what way is Russia better than Iran? That would exclude any diplomatic niceties, summits, etc. This should be the ultimate threat.
8. Interestingly, both the new German Green Foreign Minister @ABaerbock & social democratic Defense Minister #ChristineLambrecht sound more resolute & realistic on Putin's regime than @JakeSullivan46. They sound more likely to block the Putin than the US...
9. With or without allies, the US needs to get serious with sanctions on Russia again - severe financial sanctions & personal sanctions on Putin oligarchs (first of all Abramovich & Usmanov!). Sanctions should be stepped up every half year until Russia departs from Donbas.
10. Finally, the US & NATO need to get serious about military support for Ukraine. Why say that nobody will fight for Ukraine? Really? Why not leave it open at least? No concessions to Putin in return for his blackmail. The US could make do with some experienced diplomats in NSC.

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More from @anders_aslund

22 Dec
We need to think openly about Putin's outrageous policies. The main reason for his aggression against Ukraine, which has already cost thousands of human lives, is that he wants to stay in power in Russia to repress & steal as he loves to do. This must not be allowed.
Rather than talking to Putin, the West should sanction him and his ilk, reveal and freeze his billions abroad. There is no reason to treat Putin better than the ayatollahs in Iran. He should be declared out of bounds as the lawless terrorist he prides himself of being.
In the same way as the world could not get any peace until Hitler and Mussolini were dead, the world is likely to suffer one threatened disaster after the other until Putin is out of power and Russia transformed to a nice democracy as Nemtsov & Navalny aspired to.
Read 4 tweets
19 Dec
Today @washingtonpost has published two articles favoring appeasement to Russia. That would hardly have happened if Fred Hiatt were still alive.
David von Drehle wants to give in to Kremlin military extortion, promising to keep Ukraine out of NATO.
"It may be possible to give Putin a portion of what he wants without substantially altering the U.S. position, and thus defuse a dangerous situation."
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
He continues: "the United States and its allies must recognize Russia’s interest in a neutral Ukraine."
No! Russia attacked Ukraine, when it was neutral. Neutrality is dangerous as Benelux experienced in WWI & WWII & Denmark & Norway in WWII.
Read 4 tweets
18 Dec
The question is persistently asked: Why is Putin threatening with war against Ukraine now? A few ideas:
1. Russia's relative military strength will never be greater than today given stagnant economy & declining technological development.
2. Putin needs a small victorious war, or corresponding Western concessions, to stay in power. His various ratings are at an all time low, and Putin cares greatly about his ratings (popularity, trust, electability).
3. Since February 2021, President Zelensky has seen the light and realized that he cannot talk with Putin.
4. In 2021, Ukraine has cleaned up its military commands & got an excellent defense minister in Oleksii Reznikov.
Read 8 tweets
12 Dec
What is @ZelenskyyUa up to?
1. He appears to maintain his partnership with Ihor Kolomoisky pursued in the US, UK & Israel, but not in Ukraine.
2. Yanukovych's top lawyer Andriy Portnov returned with Z but was now sanctioned by the US.
3. In September 2019, he appointed a friend of his, Oleksandr Gogliashvili, deputy minister of Interior, but he was just revealed to be a Russian citizen.
4. He has protected his deputy chief of staff Tatarov from prosecution for corruption.
5. The Pandora Papers show that Z & three colleagues received $41 million in their offshore company from Kolomoisky. Z has refused to answer any question about this unreported & untaxed transaction.
Read 4 tweets
11 Dec
After a seemingly successful video call Biden-Putin, many things have gone wrong. Biden allows the conversation to focus on Putin's aggressive demands. It is Biden, Ukraine & the West that should make demands to Putin.
1. Withdraw offensive forces from Ukraine's border, Crimea & Donbas! Return to prior transparency & preannouncement of military exercises of size! Why has the West let up on those standards?
2. Russia is the main source of destabilization in the former Soviet Union. Demand that Russian troops withdraw from Donbas, Transnistria, Abkhazia & South Ossetia! Russia has repeatedly made international agreements that it will not violate national borders. Hammer that in!
Read 9 tweets
10 Dec
Outstanding 20-minute lecture by Dmitri Muratov.
"The practice of torture in prisons and during investigation is also alive and well in today’s Russia."
End: "I want journalists to die old."
nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2…
"Criminal cases in our country are often based on false accusations and political motives. Opposition politician Alexei Navalny is being held in jail based on a false accusation from the CEO of the Russian branch of a big French cosmetics company....
...The accuser was somehow not summoned to the court or neither pleaded to be an aggrieved party. But Navalny is behind bars. The cosmetics company chose to step aside hoping that the odour from this case will not harm the scent of the company’s products."
Read 5 tweets

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