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Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
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21 Dec, 13 tweets, 4 min read
Why you should you vaccinate your kids in 6 words:

Vaccines reduce myocarditis frequency and gravity

And then they reduce deaths, hospitalizations, chronic fatigue syndrome...

Here's a guide with all the details, and what to do if you're on the fence: 🧵
1. Why vaccines reduce frequency & gravity of myocarditis:
Because COVID gives PIMS (Pediatric Inflammatory Multisystem Syndrome) in 1 in 4k infections. 75% of the time that includes myocarditis, so 1 in 5k COVID infections in kids include myocarditis.
That is ~3x-30x more common than myocarditis from the vaccine, depending on your age and gender.

It's also much worse after COVID than after a vaccine. This is what the vaccine does to you:
But this is what PIMS myocarditis does to you:
- 2% of kids die, 15% have aneurysms
- Average hospital stay of 6 days vs. 1 after vaccine
There are no other serious side-effects of the vaccine so far. That's after millions of ppl have been tested in the wild. No myocarditis for younger kids so far either.

So that's for myocarditis. Obviously, it's not the only thing. COVID also sends kids to the hospital (1 in ~280), ICU (1 in ~6k), or cemetery (1 in ~100k).
More importantly, it appears to cause Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS) in a sizable share of kids.
CFS is awful:
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/long-covid-c…
Current data suggests vaccines reduce infection and hospitalization rates by 10x in kids. If this carries through to other effects of COVID (it does in adults), then vaccines can reduce all these terrible consequences by 10x
Many more questions answered, details, data, graphs, and sources in today's article.
Eg: does this result still hold for healthy adolescent males?
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/should-you-v…
Still on the fence? Still want to reduce myocarditis risks for your kids? There's ways, if you're thoughtful about it. More details in this thread:
Does anybody you know need to know this? Retweet!
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BTW all of this is valid for Pfizer mostly, and Moderna partially. Not for any other vaccine.

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More from @tomaspueyo

Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
21 Dec
You're on the fence on whether to vaccinate your kid because you're scared of myocarditis? Here are 6 rules to reduce that risk:
1. No children below 12 have reported myocarditis. This is for 12-17 children
2. Females have 10x lower risk than males.
🧵
3. Most of the benefit of the vaccines comes with the 1st dose. Most of the myocarditis cost comes with the 2nd dose. Start with the 1st dose and then gather more data.
4. The main pbm comes with shots that are not spaced enough in time. Instead of 2 shots spaced by 2-3 weeks, try spacing them by 2-3 months
Read 6 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
15 Dec
I only see 2 ways out of COVID:
1. An endemic disease that kills a few hundreds of thousands/million of ppl every year
2. A disease eradicated through global vaccination campaigns

I fear there's no 3. A virus that becomes less lethal over time and blends in like a cold
Note that 1 and 3 are pretty similar. In both cases, the disease is endemic and kills a few people every year. The cold doesn't, but the flu does, at ~0.13% of the sick every year.

But what if it wasn't 0.13%? What if it was 0.4%? Would we accept that? It's the ≠ btw 1 and 3
The reason why think we can get to 3 is because that's what probably happened to the 1918 flu: it's H1N1, and after killing so many ppl, it ended up evolving to kill less so it could spread more.
Read 10 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
14 Dec
What do we know about Omicron? I fear most ppl are unfortunately too optimistic. They're missing the Key Omicron Question.

Here's a summary of what we know about Omicron, and the key question that remains unanswered:
2 numbers matter in epidemiology: the transmission rate and the fatality rate.

The transmission rate tells you how many people are likely going to catch a virus, and how hard it will be to fight it.

Once you catch it, the fatality rate tells you how bad it will be.
Then there's 2 complications: these numbers interact in weird ways.

1. Ppl believe that viruses that become less lethal spread better.

2. Yet a less lethal virus might end up killing more.



How do we make sense of it all? Let's dive deep
Read 29 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
14 Dec
Everybody is very optimistic about Omicron.
I HOPE they're right.
I FEAR they're prey to a statistical error, Simpson's Paradox:
Simpson's Paradox says that you can see a trend because you're mixing two populations, but when you separate the populations, the trend is the opposite.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%2…
For Omicron, we might be mixing two populations: immune (through vaccinations or natural immunity) vs. naive (ie they have neither).
Read 6 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
7 Dec
4 paradoxes of feedback, one core insight, and 18 tools to get the best feedback:
Paradox 1: the more painful feedback is, the more important it is to get it.
As Seinfeld says:
Read 31 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
7 Dec
Why Europeans colonized America before Africa, in two maps and one story:

Map 1:
Northern Africa, bordering the Mediterranean, has been part of the Eurasian cultures for thousands of years.

South of that, it didn't get conquered until the 19th century, while America got conquered 3 centuries earlier despite being farther. Why?
For centuries, there was the Sahara barrier. The distance to cross was just too big. Impossible by foot, and only possible by sea through the Red Sea in the East, on the path to India, because of inhabitable stops on both sides
Read 14 tweets

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